Think Big and Long
• Scale - Global System
• Time - Global systems
don’t change instantly
Table 9r-1: Estimated major stores of carbon on the Earth.
Sink
Atmosphere
Soil Organic Matter
Ocean
Marine Sediments and
Sedimentary Rocks
Terrestrial Plants
Fossil Fuel Deposits
Amount in Billions of Metric
Tons
578 (as of 1700) - 766 (as of
1999)
1500 to 1600
38,000 to 40,000
66,000,000 to 100,000,000
540 to 610
4000
PROXY DATA
• Natural systems are dependent on climate
• We derive palaeoclimatic information from
from proxy data
• Proxy records of climate all contain a
climatic signal
• The following is a list of sources of proxy
data
A. Sediments
1. Marine (ocean sediment cores)
i) Organic sediments (planktonic & benthic fossils)
Oxygen isotopes
Faunal & floral abundances
Morphological variations
ii) Inorganic sediments
Mineralogical composition & surface texture
Distribution of terrigenous material
Ice-rafted debris
Geochemistry
2. Terrestrial
Periglacial features
Glacial deposits & erosional features
Glacio-eustatic features (shorelines)
Aeolian deposits (sand dunes)
Lacustrine deposits/varves (lakes)
B. Sedimentary Rocks
Facies analysis
Fossil/microfossil analysis
Mineral analysis
Isotope geochemistry
PROXY DATA
• Biological
Tree rings (width, density, isotope analysis)
Pollen (species, abundances)
Insects
• Historical
meteorological records
parameteorological records
phenological records (biological indicators)
Proxy Data
• Integrating all these kinds of data is a
challenge
• Some proxy data is more sensitive to
climate changes than others
• These differences in response are
sometimes used by people to make cases
that warming trends are not real because
the scientists can’t agree on what the data
suggests, exactly.
Glaciological (Ice Cores)
Oxygen isotopes
Physical properties
Trace element & microparticle concentrations
Fig. 2. Glacier retreat as documented in the Peruvian Andes
Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543
Copyright ©2006 by the National Academy of Sciences
Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries
Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543
Copyright ©2006 by the National Academy of Sciences
The time series shows the combined global land and marine
surface temperature record from 1856 to 2001. Data from Jones
et al., 1998; and from the Climate Research Unit at the University
of East Anglia (www.cru.uea.ac.uk; compilation by Phil Jones).
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/
Warming over the past 50 years
Current Levels of CO2
• 379 parts per million 2002
• Increases at a current rate of 3 parts per
million
• 2,000 parts per million by the time fossil
fuels are depleted
• 2002 Kump, Nature
http://www.geosystems.org/index.html
Deep Time Climates: Their Relevance to Climate Change
and Value to Petroleum Exploration (SEPM/AAPG)
Is It Time for a Rebirth in The Geologic Application of Climate Models?
Deep Time Paleoclimate Modeling and Natural Resource Exploration:
Status and Future Challenges
Using Climate Model Experiments of Orbital Cycles to Understand
Stratigraphic Variability
•
Earth system science provides a unifying context to demonstrate the
Interrelationships between all components of the Earth system and
humanity.
•
New Earth system science courses and curricula must implement best
teaching practices to educate all constituencies, including under
represented groups in science.
•
The Earth and space science community must change its academic
culture to actively support reform of science education, and promote a
recognition and reward structure that values excellence in the education
of all students.
AGU, NSF Keck Geology Consortium
•
We could be moving ourselves out
of the Ice Age
• We used to cycle between glacial and
interglacial periods
• In order to estimate the result of current
warming trends and elevated CO2 we
need to go back into deep time
• We have to have to realize there will be no
quick fix and global systems do not
respond instantly
What we can do
• More integrative studies among scientists
in both academic and industrial settings
• Scientists need to communicate better
with the general public
• Education ELEVATE EARTH SCIENCE
TO THE IMPORTANT PLACE IT
DESERVES IN OUR SCHOOLS
• Operate under the assumption that
warming trend will continue