The Caribbean Single Market Economy Understanding the impact of the free movement of labor on the people of St. Lucia Kevin Stapleton, Graduate Student Community Development and Applied Economics The University of Vermont Project Goals Short term goal: To understand the strengths, weaknesses, similarities and differences between the economies of CSME nations Long-term Project Goals: 1. To assess the impact of the free movement of labor on the people of St Lucia. 2. To help develop strategies for St Lucia to maximize its benefit from free movement of labor Project Partners Lisa Louis Philip, PMP Commerce and Industry Officer Ministry of Commerce, Investment and Consumer Affairs Titus Preville Deputy Permanent Secretary Ministry of Commerce, Investment and Consumer Affairs How do economies grow? Y = f (K,T,L) Capital (K) – Land – Natural resources – Built environment Technology (T) – Changes in productivity Labor (L) – Size of the labor force – Skills of the labor force All changes in the real size of an economy are a result of one or more of these factors. Factor 1: Capital •Gross Domestic Product (GDP) •Components of GDP •Limitations of GDP Gross Domestic Product per capita (PPP) 14000 12000 GDP (PPP, US$) 10000 8000 CSME Average: $7,726 CSME Median: $6600 6000 4000 2000 ca m ai Ja na uy a G ic a D om in a ci Lu St Vi nc e nt e nt Sa i Su rin am iz e Be l ad a re n G To ba go & ig ua An t Tr in id ad Sa i nt Ki tt 0 Saint Lucia’s Per Capita GDP is just below the median among CSME nations, but well below the average. GDP per capita annual growth rate (%), 1990-2004 Jamaica Guyana Grenada Dominica Belize Saint Kitts Saint Vincent Trinidad & Tobago Antigua St Lucia 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 St Lucia’s growth in the past 15 years has been well below the CSME average of 2.0%. 4.5 Dollar value contributions to per capita GDP Service Agriculture Industry Barbados Antigua Trinidad & Tobago Grenada Belize Suriname Saint Vincent St Lucia Dominica Guyana Jamaica 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Like most Caricom nations, St. Lucia is heavily dependent on the service sector. 14000 “GNP counts special locks for our doors and jails for the people who break them. GNP includes the destruction of the redwoods and the death of Lake Superior. It grows with the production of napalm, and missiles and nuclear warheads…” -Senator Robert Kennedy Factor 2: Technology “Technology” encompasses any change that increases production without adding capital or labor. Anything that increases productivity is considered technology. Perhaps the most important technological improvement in the past 25 years is internet access. St Lucia has 336 internet users for every 1,000 people. This is well above the CSME average of 223. Factor 3: Labor Components Size Education Components of the Labor Force Services Agriculture Commercial/Industrial 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% a St Lu ci ic a D om in iz e Be l nt Vi nc e nt ad a Sa i re n G To ba go & Tr in id ad Ba rb ad os An t ig ua 0% Saint Lucia can benefit from its more diverse labor force. A study to find the percent of each labor force that is “skilled” according to CSME would be very beneficial. Size of the labor force 2004 2015 100.0 90.0 % of total population 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Trinidad & Tobago Guyana Saint Vincent St Lucia Suriname Jamaica Barbados The CSME as a whole will benefit from the increasing size of the labor force. Belize Poverty and Unemployment Unemployment rate (% of labor force, 2002 or 2003) Poverty rate 70 60 Percent 50 40 30 20 10 Ki tt s Sa in t ig ua An t e Su rin am iz e Be l re n G Ja Tr m in ai id ca ad & To ba go ad a a St Lu ci nt Vi nc e nt Sa i D om in ic a 0 Saint Lucia’s poverty rate is below average, while its unemployment is above average. Percent of Children reaching grade 5 Guyana Median: 88 64 Grenada 78 Dominica 84 Saint Kitt 87 Saint Vincent 88 Jamaica 90 St Lucia 90 Belize 91 Trinidad & Tobago 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Saint Lucia is among the highest achievers in this category, which should serve it well in the future. Percent of the population that graduated secondary school and percent of the population with tertiary education would be very helpful information. Combined gross enrollment 100 90 80 CSME average: 76 % enrolled 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 ba go nt & id ad Tr in Sa in t Vi To nc e ua An tig e na m Su ri na da re G uy an a G a Lu ci St a ai c Ja m Sa in t Ki tt e liz Be in ic a D om Ba rb ad o s 0 76% of school-age children are currently enrolled in Saint Lucia, which is the average among CSME nations The importance of education: Correlating Education and GDP Per capita GDP 12 Average years of education Hypotheses for long-term goals: The short-term impact of the CSME on the St. Lucian economy will be negative as skilled labor moves to higher wage areas. The long-term impact of CSME on the St Lucian economy will be positive, primarily because of increased trade, economies of scale and access to skilled labor. While the long term benefit will be positive, it could have negative impacts on distribution. Resources and References Mcintyre, A. (2000). Caricom and the WTO. Social and Economic Studies. 49,1, 83-112 A Time to Choose: Caribbean Development in the 21st Century (2005) Caribbean Country Management Unit, The World Bank. Freckleton, M. & Karagiannis, F. (2004). Development Policy Options for Caricom in an Era of Free Trade. The Caribbean Economies in an Era of Free Trade. Coppin, A. (1994). The Demand for Labor in the Caribbean Community. The Review of Black Political Economy, 23(2),39. Griffith, W.H. (2002). A Tale of Four Caricom Countries. Journal of Economic Issues. 36 (1) 79 Bernal, R.L. (2003). The Caribbean’s Future is not What it Was. Social and Economic Studies. 52(1) Questions or comments? Contact information: Kevin Stapleton Department of Community Development and Applied Economics The University of Vermont 104 Morrill Hall, Burlington VT 05401 Kevin.stapleton@uvm.edu