If you want a CD or handout of this lecture contact:
roperld@vt.edu
http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10642724 http://www.hybridcenter.org

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Emissions from vehicles is causing global warming and human sickness.
Oil extraction peaked in the U.S. in the early
1970s.
Oil extraction is peaking for the world about now.
Natural gas extraction peaked in the U.S. in the late 1970s.
Natural gas extraction for the world will peak within a decade or two.
Hybrid vehicles produce much less emissions and use about 50% less fuel than the average new vehicle in the same class . (Partial-Zero emissions)
Plug-in Hybrid vehicles eventually will be charged at parking locations using renewable energy. They will use at least half as much fuel as do hybrids.

This fit to the data gives future reserves as ~1.5 times 2003 proven reserves.
My birth.
Alaska increment
It will mostly be gone when I am
100 years old.
Note the desperation jitter that occurs near an extraction peak.
U.S. oil discoveries peaked about 1930.

Watch this grow in the future!
From International Energy Agency.
ROW = Rest of the World.
It is easy to see why the U.S. starts wars for oil.

The Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge is estimated to contain 7x10 9 barrels of oil; about one year's supply for the U.S., a mere blip on
Alaska extraction.
Alaska extraction peaked in 1988 about 10 years after it started.
http://www.eia.gov

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The main component is methane (CH
4
).
Natural Gas burns cleaner than gasoline or diesel . (I used butane/propane @ $0.17/gallon in my vehicle while in college 1954-8.)
Power companies prefer natural gas rather than coal as a fuel because it is cleaner burning and easier to transport by pipelines.
33% of U.S. energy comes from natural gas.
95% of nitrogen fertilizer used by U.S. farmers is made from natural gas. Increasingly being imported because of high prices for U.S. natural gas.
“Natural gas” can be made from sewage and extracted from land fills. Future power stations need to be located at land fills and sewage plants and/or where the heat generated can be used ( co-generation ).

This fit to the data gives future reserves as ~5 times 2003 proven reserves.
About 15% of consumption imported, mostly from
Canada.
Largest reserves are in Russia,
Iran and
Qatar.
Note the desperation jitter.

http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html
from ExxonMobil

Note the desperation jitter.
World oil discoveries peaked about 1965.

http://dieoff.com/page224.htm
World Petroleum Extraction Per Capita
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 year
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Barrels of crude oil per capita per year for the World.
The prediction is calculated using fits to World petroleum extraction rates and population.

1947-2004 http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

The fit is to the data after Jan 2002.
http://www.eia.doe.gov
Daily prices: http://www.wtrg.com/daily/clfclose.gif

A World economic slump or collapse will probably keep oil prices from rising this rapidly.
http://www.eia.doe.gov

The fit is to the data after Jan
1999.
http://www.eia.doe.gov
Daily prices: http://www.wtrg.com/daily/ngfclose.gif

What about Using Ethanol and/or Biodiesel for Fuel?
Farmers must use biofuels to produce biofuels, not petrofuels!
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
Closed carbon dioxide greenhouse gas cycle for biofuels.
Ethanol & biodiesel are sustainable forms of solar energy.

What if biodiesel were made from biowaste?
It takes 10% more energy to make gasoline than gasoline yields as a fuel.
Current disagreement
Need to use ethanol to produce ethanol!

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Two mixtures of gasoline and alcohol are available at a few fuel stations in the United States: E10=10% ethanol
(101 octane) by volume and E85=85% ethanol (105 octane) by volume.
Unfortunately, World production of ethanol for fuel has not been increasing very rapidly. http://www.e85fuel.com
All vehicles since the 1970s are capable of burning E10 , but filling stations are not widely available.
One could create E10 at E85 filling stations by putting in about 8.35 of gasoline for each gallon of E85, as calculated from:
0.1 = 0.85e/(g + 0.15e) where e = amount of E85 and g = amount of gasoline.
A list of Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV) can be found at http://www.e85fuel.com/e85101/flexfuelvehicles.php .l
In 2006 General Motors made 6 FFVs,
Daimler Chrysler made 5, Ford made 5 and Nissan made 1. General Motors and Ford Motor Company are promising more in the future: http://www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/e85/index.html
http://media.ford.com/newsroom/feature_display.cfm?release=21949
The availability of E85 filling stations in 35 states in the United States.
http://www.e85fuel.com/database/search.php
Virginia is way behind!
Flexible Fuel Vehicles can burn gasoline and E85 or diesel and biodiesel.
It costs $100 extra to make a vehicle FFV.
Ford plans to market a FFV version of the
Escape hybrid.

You get more than ethanol out of the process!

www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
=E85 or gasoline = E10

www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
Ethanol in Brazil
Gasoline in Rotterdam

Brazil sugar-cane/ethanol learning curve
Liters of ethanol produced per hectare between 1975 to 2004 www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
6500
(em litros de álcool hidratado equivalente por hectare)
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
2024
+3,77% aa em 29 anos
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
Fonte: Datagro
08 Nov 2005 Nastari / Datagro @ Proálcool 30 anos 11
5931

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4
2
3
Problem: Easier to capture CO
2 at power plant than from millions of vehicles!
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
2

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Both are 15-20% more efficient fuels than gasoline.
Diesel emits more pollutants than gasoline because each molecule has about 5 to 7 more methane units. They can be eliminated by catalytic converters, as they have been in
German vehicles.
See http://www.whpubs.com/epa.pdf
Biodiesel:
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Can be used in diesel engines.
Emits 50% less carbon monoxide and 78% less carbon dioxide than diesel.
Contains no sulfur.
Emits 75% less particulates than diesel.
Emits more nitrous oxides (smog) than diesel, but they can be removed by catalytic converters.
Ignites more readily in an engine but less readily in the atmosphere than does diesel.
Biodiesel may be the transport fuel of the future .
See Biodiesel by Greg Pahl and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel and http://hybridiesel.blogspot.com/2005/02/good-discussion-about-potential-of.html

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Over 50% of algae mass is oil.
Over 30 times more oil per area than other fuel plants (e.g. soybeans).
Both fresh-water and salt-water algae.
Most efficient photoreceptors of all plants.
Liquid environment allows better access to carbon dioxide, nitrogen and minerals needed for growth.
Arid zones are ideal because of high solar exposure.
Locate beside power plants to absorb the carbon dioxide produced.
Commercial bioreactors for producing oil from algae are expected soon.

Curve is 73% growth.
Growth is faster.
Biodiesel: Growing A New Energy Economy by Greg Pahl

A 73% rate of growth in World biodiesel production would equal World petroleum extraction by about 2022.

Comparison of Vehicle Emissions for Renewable versus Nonrenewable Sources of Energy
Decreasing emissions
Decreasing emissions
Decreasing emissions
Final Goal for Vehicles!

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Can we extract and use coal for fuel without further destroying the environment ?
Can we learn how to store the carbon to use it later to ameliorate the plunge into the next ice age ? (More about this later.)
Can we get liquid and/or gas for transport fuel out of coal competitive to bioliquid and biogas?
Can we use coal to build the infrastructure for sustainable energy sources ?
The U.S. national electric grid is ~45% powered by coal . (Most of the rest is natural gas.)
Full Electric vehicles reduce greenhouse emissions by 67% , even though much of their power is produced by coal power plants.
Most coal reserves are in Russia, China & U.S.

Oil Extraction started.
Area between red curve and data = area between black and red curves.
In about
200 years we will be very low in coal extraction.
The red curve is a fit using known 2003 recoverable reserves.
The drawn black curve is a rough “optimistic” guess about the future .

World will have coal to use about 100 years longer than the U.S.
Eventual amount extracted: 100,248x10^6 Short Tons http://www.eia.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0701.html

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~15% of U.S. electrical energy is produced from nuclear power plants. In France it is ~77%.
We will probably run short within the next century .
http://afr.com/articles/2005/06/23/1119321845502.html
Safe storage of radioactive waste for tens of thousands of years (well into the next Major Ice Age) is a major problem. See Deep Time by G. Benford.
Use of uranium for Weapons of Mass Destruction , for radioactive terrorism and in warheads of standard weapons (Used extensively in the Gulf War, Bosnia
War, Kosovo War & Bush Iraq War) are major problems. See: http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/WeaponsRadioactive.htm

Fit to data using known reserves
Fit using 1.5 times reserves
Will run out sooner than coal.

Energy Source
Early U.S. oil
Early Middle East oil
Old oil fields
Hydropower
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Tar sands
Biofuels
ERoEI (approximate)
20
30
Environmental costs are not considered in calculating these numbers!
3-10
10
3-10
0-4
10-50
5-15
13
2
< 1? (current farming practices) http://www.eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.html
http://www.mnforsustain.org/nukpwr_tyner_g_net_energy_from_nuclear_power.htm

A linear fit to the world energy consumption to allow projection into the future.

Since World population is projected to start leveling off, a constant increase in energy use allows a modest increase in energy per capita .
The recent downturn in energy use per capita may be why population growth is slowing.

39,300 MegaWatts in 2004
Growing at ~25%/year.
Would take about 25 years to equal total world power.
1,050 MegaWatts in 2004
Growing at ~30%/year.
Would take about 35 years to equal total world power.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/gwdebate.pdf
http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2
World power used in 2004:
~15,000,000 MegaWatts
= 15 TeraWatts
Wind and photovoltaic power would have to grow at 70% per year to supply all world power in about 10 years!
Tehachapi Pass Wind Farm, California

A 25% rate of growth would make
World wind power equal to World total power by 2030.
As the Earth moves into the next
Major Ice Age within a few thousand years, winds will increase greatly, so much more wind power will be available.

A 31% rate of growth would make
World photovoltaic power equal to
World total power by 2037.
As the Earth moves into the next
Major Ice Age within a few thousand years, cloudiness will decrease greatly, so more solar power may be available even though insolation will be smaller.
World Total Power and Photovoltaic
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
World Photovoltaic Power
2020 2025 2030
Total World Power
2035 2040

2006 Federal Tax Credits for Home Solar Energy Installations
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Photovoltaic system or solar hot-water heater
(not for swimming pool or hot tub).
Federal tax credit equal to 30% of the systems' cost, up to a credit of $2,000 per system.
Must be installed from Jan. 1, 2006 through Dec.
31, 2007.
A two-kilowatt photovoltaic system that meets most of the needs of a highly energy-efficient home should cost $16,000 to $20,000 installed.
A five-kilowatt photovoltaic system for a more typical home should cost twice that; it would eliminate the home’s electricity bills.
The “Bible”: The Solar Electric House by Steven J.
Strong and William G. Scheller, 1993.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Savinganddebt/Savemoney/P126521.asp

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Using proven technologies to improve vehicle efficiency can save half of projected 2025 use of oil in the U.S.
The other half might be replaced by biofuels and “saved” natural gas (more efficient use of electricity).
A 2025 vehicle fleet as efficient as the best hybrid vehicles now available would save onesixth of projected oil use.
See http://www.oilendgame.com
and
Winning the Oil End Game by Amory
Lovins.
Global Warming next

Last Interglacial
Homo sapiens evolved in
Africa.
Current
Interglacial
(more about this later)
Previous Glacial Maximum
Only Neanderthals in Europe
Glacial Maximum
(10^3 years)
Last Neanderthal in Europe
• Until about ~10,000 years ago the earth was in a long ice age for about 120,000 years , with several extreme variations in temperature on a ~10,000 year time scale. (There have been eight of these ice ages in the last one million years .)
• Human beings evolved into “intelligent” animals due to the extreme climate stresses .
• Why has it been so uniformly warm over the last 10,000 years? (Compare to the last interglacial ~130,000 years ago.)

Insolation = solar energy striking the top of Earth’s atmosphere.
It has been declining for the last 11,000 years; so why has the temperature remained so high?
North-Pole summer insolation is an important factor because accumulation of ice in the Arctic region is crucial to the Major Ice
Ages and summer is when the ice can melt. Note that it peaked
11,000 years ago and will be at a minimum in about 500 years.

Neolithic Global Warming due to Carbon Dioxide Release
( William F. Ruddiman, Scientific American Mar 2005, p.34.
Plows, Plagues and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate by W. F. Ruddiman
)

Neolithic Global Warming due to Methane Release
Caused by the onset of intensive rice farming in Asia.

Anthropogenic Global Warming History and Future
Future Global
Warming
Normal
Interglacial Plunge into next ice Age.
Modern
Global
Warming
I call this
“Neolithic global warming”.

Neolithic
Global
Warming
Future Global Warming
Modern
Global
Warming
Plunge into ice
Age.
The fast rise in temperature may trigger the next major ice sooner than it would otherwise occur, due to switching off Atlantic
Ocean currents .
• Rapid changes in temperature cause agriculture possibilities to switch from one area of the world to another. Thus, many people will die due to lack of food .
• Rapid increases in temperature cause more severe weather to occur, such as hurricanes . Thus, many people will die (have already died!).
• Rapid increases in temperature cause the glacial ice at the North and South Poles to melt, raising sea levels; which will flood many major cities of the world .

Hurricane Power Dissipated (PDI) vs
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in North Atlantic
Obvious connection between high ocean surface temperature and hurricane power.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181#more-181 http://zfacts.com/p/49.html

Global Warming Turning off North Atlantic Ocean Currents
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In tropics warm water evaporates, leaving greater salt concentration in the surface water.
Salty water travels north and becomes cooler.
At some point the salty cool surface water becomes more dense than the water underneath it, so it sinks rapidly .
When the northern ice caps melt by global warming or otherwise, they supply fresh water into the North Atlantic.
At some point the water ceases to be salty enough to sink at a specific location.
The sinking of cold salty water is what drives the North Atlantic Ocean Currents.

These North Atlantic surface Ocean Currents are what make
Interglacials warm.
Notice that there are several components.
•
Brazilian coastline deflects most of the
South Equatorial
Current into the northern hemisphere.
• Results in a large transfer of heat from the tropics into the far northern hemisphere .
• Note the several different North Atlantic
Ocean Currents .
• The Isthmus of
Panama keeps the
Atlantic Ocean currents from going into the
Pacific Ocean. It closed about ~4 million years ago .
http://www.fiu.edu/~srimal/Currents_files/v3_document.htm

Can We Control Global Warming to Ameliorate Entry into the Ice Age ?
Neolithic
Global
Warming
Controlled entry into next ice age by slowing the rate of burning fossil fuels and/or storing the carbon dioxide to be released later more slowly .
This would give more time for developing the infrastructure needed for humans to survive in the next ice age .
• World population would be reduced either intentionally or otherwise.
• Can humans cooperate enough worldwide to peacefully reduce population, control the rate of burning fossil fuels and store carbon dioxide in the earth to be released at a controlled rate later?
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See http://www.arts.bev.net/roperldavid/AmeliorateGlobalWarming.pdf

Oil Age
The slight drop in temperature until ~150 years ago is due to solar insolation decreasing. The rapid rise in temperature during the last 150 years is due to burning fossil fuels. This is expected to continue for several hundred more years if we continue to burn fossil fuels; unless the
Atlantic Ocean current(s) are turned off by the rapid rise in temperature.

Last 200 Years Earth Temperature and Population Data
The rapid temperature increase is very similar to the rapid world population increase .
Carbon dioxide increase behaves similarly.
Oceans contain unbalanced heat energy, which will cause atmospheric temperatures to rise for another century even if we quit putting CO
2 into the atmosphere .

2005 virtually tied 1998 as the warmest year on record!
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/recordtemp2005.html
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf

Current Interglacial Next Interglacial ~115,000 years from now
Temperature will drop 3 to
4 degrees C in the next
10,000 years.
Temperature will drop about 7 degrees C in the next 50,000 years.
The different predictions are for different models of the climate.
There will be shorter time fluctuations not represented by the model.
Arctic temperature variations are larger than temperate and tropics variations.
The next ice age will occur no matter whether we quickly burn up all the fossil fuels or not. Human beings will undoubtedly evolve greatly over the next major ice age of about 110,000 years duration, due to the extreme stresses of cold climate, as they did during the last major ice age.
See http://www.roperld.com/science/tempsolinsatc.pdf

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(Threat 1) Global warming unchecked will cause great troubles.
(Threat 2) World Petroleum extraction is peaking .
(Threat 3) Inevitable next ice age has been temporarily ameliorated by Anthropogenic Global
Warming.
Future global warming may trigger the next ice age sooner than with only modern global warming by turning off Atlantic ocean current(s).
The Human Future will be much worse than the news media and governments have been telling you!
It is interesting that the onset of intensive agriculture that led to industrialization was possible only in the interglacial just before the next ice age.

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Rich nations will probably not give up their dependency on using more than their share of the world’s resources.
Rich nations may continue their killing of people in poor nations to try to maintain the high standard of living.
Nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction may be used if the rich nations deem it necessary to guarantee their access to the remaining resources of the world.
Suburban life will become difficult because of the difficulty and expense of traveling large distances for necessities. City life will become difficult because of the energy required to bring in necessities. Mostly self sufficient communities with surrounding farm lands are the best bet for survival (for example: Blacksburg VA ).
Starvation will be widespread.
Mass migrations from poorer nations to richer nations will probably occur.
Much knowledge may be lost about how to survive in a less energy-intensive world and about how to create better living conditions.

How Can Humans get from Now to 1000 Years from Now?
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Eliminate nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction by all countries, including the United States (This implies a high degree of world cooperation , not go-it-alone)
Emphasize pre-conception birth control to try to stabilize and peacefully bring down world population.
Safely store knowledge for future use.
Use energy and materials much more efficiently .
Change from non-renewable to renewable energy sources .
Use the remaining fossil fuels to develop infrastructure needed to use renewable energy sources .
Depend more on local sources of energy, food and materials .
Recycle materials to a high degree.
Live closer together in self-sufficient communities .
Move from individual transportation to shared transportation (e.g., railroads instead of interstates).
Store carbon dioxide now in a way so that we can recover it later to
 release into the atmosphere to ameliorate the plunge into the next ice. See http://www.arts.bev.net/roperldavid/AmeliorateGlobalWarming.pdf
Are humans informed and intelligent enough to realize these huge problems and to do these things quickly enough?
See: The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler
Hybrids next