Thinking ahead sustainably:
Policies, Scenarios and Models to address
Grand Societal Challenges
The Future Imagined: Insights from the arts
(filmic and literary representations)
Olivia Bina and Simone Tulumello
With Sandra Mateus, Lavinia Pereira, Annalisa Caffa
– ICS-Ulisboa
FLAGSHIP is Funded by the 7 of the European Union th Framework Programme bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
Brussels – 16/12/15
FLAGSHIP Final event

http://europeanmovies.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/italian-movizes.jpg
FLA bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
GSCs
2


o
What differences & what implications?
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt

CREATIVE INPUT
Balance methods based on evidence/expertise
With creative inputs
DETAIL
Counters tendency towards abstraction:
Simple/poetic;
Detailed/daily symbolic factual vs macro systemic perspectives
INVOLVEMENT
Reach wide audience – thus amplify participation in debate/reflection;
Identify themes that resonate widely with the public
REFLECTION
On cultural codes, values, ideologies;
Explore alternatives to socio-political status quo
CRITIQUE
Socio-historical critique of social structure, power, politics and agency;
Help DMs think of ethical implications/dilemmas of alternative futures
WARNING
Anticipatory knowledge
Predict & explore risks
Identify possible warning signals
Popper: Science Fictioning bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
4

GSCs &
FLAGSHIP
Choice of
“texts”
Analytical matrix: themes & dimensions
Template for each record/text
Content analysis
Network analysis
RESULTS
Core
Challenges
Major patterns bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
5

Finance
Economics
Developmen t
Governance
Innovation
Technology
GSCs
Knowledge to “shape the future”
Demography
Social
Change
Society
Energy
Environment bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
6

Selecting “texts” bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
7

http://flagship-project.eu/flagship-visions/ bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
Films
Novels
64
150 yrs
8

The Machine Stops
The Tomorrow File
Paris in the Twentieth
Century (1863)
The Time Machine
We
Brave New World
The Space Merchants
The Lathe of Heaven
Stand on Zanzibar
A Clockwork Orange
Do Androids Dream of
Electric Sheep?
1984
The Handmaid’s Tale
Ender's Game
Z for Zachariah
The Stand
Neuromancer Fahrenheit 451
The Diamond Age, or A
Alphaville
Young Lady's
La Jetée
Illustrated Primer
On the Beach
The Giver
Infinite Jest
Solaris
Cloud Atlas
Logan's Run
The Terminator The Passage
The Windup Girl
Uglies
The Road
Feed
Dawn of the Dead
Mad Max
RoboCop
Blade Runner
The Swarm
La police en l'an 2000
Soylent Green
Verdens Undergang
Brazil
Total Recall
Twelve Monkeys aka The End of the
World
Le tunnel sous La
The Fifth Element
Waterworld
Matrix
Manche
Metropolis
Gattaca
Escape from L.A.
Code 46
V for Vendetta
District 9
Hunger Games
Children of Men
Avatar
Minority Report
Elysium (2013)
Vexille
28 days Later
Appleseed
The Day after
Tomorrow
“significant and lasting impact on the public imagination”
9

bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
http://europeanmovies.org/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/italianmovizes.jpg
FL
A
GSCs
10

Archetypal visions of the future
Collapse
Anti-utopia
Dystopia
Apocalypse
Conflict &
Revolution
Utopia
Explanation %
The natural or non-natural motivations behind the civilizational decadence or ruin
As the portrait of authoritarian projects resulting in the contrary of utopia
The complex, chaotic scenarios and borderline societies
The more prophetical or religious approaches related to the end of times
26 40,6
25 39,1
24 37,5
14 21,9
Description of a society in constant warfare
The benefits of a rational/ equalitarian systems and the rebirth of new forms of utopia n
10
8
15,6
12,5

(categories after Clardy 2011)
Utopia
Dystopia praise of the technological/ scientific/ rational model present in
utopian texts; nihilistic and critical tendencies in
dystopian texts
(Booker, 1994).
Anti-Utopia
Collapse
Conflict
Apocalypse bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
12

(categories after Clardy 2011)
Utopia
Dystopia
Anti-Utopia
Collapse
Conflict
Apocalypse bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
13

Non-human developments
& human disruptive events
Resource Scarcity
& Environmental
Crisis/Collapse
Gradual evolution towards disruption (building on
‘present’ trends)
Social cultural tensions leading to crisis/Collapse
Acritical acceptance
(utopian narratives) of technological advances bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
14

bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
http://europeanmovies.org/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/italianmovizes.jpg
FL
A
GSCs
15

Fiction has the power to illustrate what might happen: when science blurs the boundaries between human
and non-human; when the relationship between humans, technology and nature reaches the proverbial point of
no return; when the built environment promotes individuals’ alienation; when the structures of power, education and property all contribute to deepen social
stratification and
inequality.
bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
16

17
4. Society and social change
1. Individuals, society and culture
Control & Manipulation
3. Environment -
Technology vs
Nature
2.
Science/Technology and society
Source: Bina et al forthcoming

18
1. Individuals, society and culture

“Scarcity” - individual dignity, human values and wellbeing (50,0%)

Dehumanizing processes (39,1%)

Disrespect of Human Rights (37,5%)

Strong homogenization of identities (37,5%)

Social control and subjective distress (26,6%)
3. Environment -Technology vs Nature

(Near)impossibility to breathe in open air (39,1%)

Technology used for control of nature (39,1%)

Extreme urbanization and vertical density (34,4%)

Interconnectedness and resulting fragility (34,4%)

Species extinction and decline in biodiversity
(34,4%)

Aesthetic/ Spiritual Value of Nature (31,3%)

Food scarcity, replacement & lack of choice
(28,1%)
2. Science/Technology and society

Advanced technology (42,2%)

Technology as a socio-political instrument of control (39,1%)

Technology use restricted to specific ends or for/by elite groups (39,1%)

Technology used for social domination and manipulation (26,6%)

Science as a tool for manipulation, control and rationalization (26,6%)
4. Society and social change

Socioeconomic discrimination (based on propriety, education or other) (34,4%)

High stratification and unequal societies (32,8%)

Existence of resistance and opposition movements (31,3%)

Women inequality (31,3%)

Stratification of workers & occupations (28,1%)

Absence of consumption (26,6%)
Source: Bina et al forthcoming

 resulting patterns & warning signals: elements of such future have already escaped the imaginary world to make part of today’s experience.
Beware of ‘ gradual evolution towards disruption ’ bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
19

(Levidow and Neubaue, 2012)
• Current H2020 priorities assume that
•
“ all innovation is socially beneficial ”
• “grand challenges have been generally framed
• in ways favouring capital-intensive
technoscientific solutions, at the expense of other approaches”
• even when the possibility of promoting an
alternative research agendas is perfectly viable. bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
20

http://europeanmovies.org/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/italianmovizes.jpg
FL
A
GSCs
21 bina@ics.ulisboa.pt

22
Self-direction
(1984, 1949; The Handmaid’s Tale, 1985;
Logan's Run, 1976; Twelve Monkeys, 1995)
Reflexivity
(Feed, 2002; Matrix, 1999)
Freedom
(Escape from L.A., 1996)
Dignity
(The Tomorrow File, 1975; A Clockwork
Orange, 1962; Hunger Games, 2012)
Hope
(Soylent Green, 1973; On the Beach, 1959;
Blade Runner, 1982; Children of Men, 2006)
Sentiments and capacity to feel emotions
(We, 1921; Do Androids Dream of Electric
Sheep?, 1968; The Giver, 1993)
Identity
(We, 1921; Uglies, 2005; Twelve Monkeys,
1995)
Privacy
(Stand on Zanzibar, 1968; Minority Report,
2002)
Idealism and creativity
(Paris in the Twentieth Century, 1863; Brazil,
1985)
Source: Bina et al forthcoming bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
Security and protection
(The Time Machine, 1895; Mad Max,
1979)
Equality
(Metropolis, 1926; Elysium, 2013)
Peace
(Appleseed, 2004)
Justice
(Elysium, 2013)
Love
(The Handmaid’s Tale, 1985)
Trust (Ender's Game, 1973)

bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
23

External
Resources and
Ecological
Functions/Services
Internal/Intangible
Individual dignity, human values and wellbeing, what makes us human

Focus
Technoscience

Focus
Emotional, self-knowledge, spiritual (& implications of transhumanism) bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
24

Re-visiting research agendas
Caution & Daring http://europeanmovies.org/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/italianmovizes.jpg
FL
A
GSCs
25 bina@ics.ulisboa.pt

H2020 Challenges a summary of the patterns identified in fiction and which are largely or fully absent in H2020 discourse
Source: Bina et al forthcoming
Table 29 bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
26

H2020 + Caution



Technology used for social domination and manipulation use restricted to specific ends or for/by elite groups as socio-political instrument of control
Science as a tool for manipulation, control and rationalization


Scarcity: individual dignity, human values and wellbeing, what makes us human
Dehumanization processes
Strong homogenization bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
27

H2020 + Daring
Happiness and wellbeing
(psychological conditions & QoL)
Connectedness
(interaction, physical closeness)
Progress and future
(ideas of progress & time, ideas of risk in the future)
Identity
(belonging, collective memory/aspirations, homogenisation/subcultures)
Systems of beliefs
(values, ethics, spirituality, religion)
Meaning of life and existence
(Personal project and personal identity
(who am I))
Conceptions of the human
(e. g. human nature, human condition, transhumanism)
Entertainment and art
(self-expression, creativity, leisure, entertainment/control)
Aesthetic/ Spiritual Value of Nature
(redeeming role and to embody the notion of hope itself) bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
28

st
Utopia
Dystopia
Anti-Utopia
Collapse
Conflict bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
Apocalypse
29

And now, over to our FLAGSHIP colleagues
Thanks!
Know what we do NOT want
Envision what we MIGHT desire
Invest in the
KNOWLEDGE we NEED bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
30

31 GSCs
 JRC-IPTS (2008)
 Need to Change the Current Ways of Using
Essential Natural Resources
 Need to Anticipate and Adapt to Societal
Changes
 Need for Effective and Transparent
Governance for the EU and the World
 ERA
1.
Realising a single labour market for researchers
2.
Developing world-class research infrastructures
3.
Strengthening research institutions
4.
Sharing knowledge
5.
Optimising research programmes and priorities
6.
Opening to the world: international cooperation in S&T
 H2020 7 Societal Challenges
(Council Decision 2013) iKnow
1.Water security and vulnerability
2.Energy security and vulnerability
3.Health, illness and well-being
4.Sustainability and climate change
5.Ageing and demographic issues
6.Food security and culture
7.Globalisation and localisation
8.Social cohesion and diversity
9.Technological security, hazard and risk
10.Consumption and behavioural change
11.Innovation, knowledge and technology
12.Work-life balance and mental health
13.Science, technology and ethics
14.Crime, security and justice
15.Governance, democracy and citizenship
16.Coexistence and conflict
17.Social pathologies and ethics
18.Social exclusion, poverty and affluence
19.Economic prosperity and growth dynamics
20.Urban and rural dynamics
21.Education and skills dynamics bina@ics.ulisboa.pt

Environment and
Food (resource efficiency)
Anthropocene bina@ics.ulisboa.pt
Individuals, society and culture
Control and manipulation
Demography, social change, skills and empowerment
Social Inequality and stratification
Scarcity of human values
Dehumanization processes
Innovation and technology, resource efficiency
Scarcity
Economy (GDP)
32