Longitudinal Analysis of the Career
Path Outcomes of University
Graduates
Bamby Fields, Eastern Washington University
Fran Hermanson, Washington State University
Nevena Lalic, University of Washington
Melissa Beard, Education Research & Data Center (Moderator)
Presentation Outline
Data Governance
 Eastern Washington University
 Washington State University
 University of Washington
 Concluding thoughts about using
employment data

Data Governance
PCHEES data linked with employment
data
 Data sharing agreement between ERDC
and the institution for de-identified data

EASTERN
WASHINGTON
UNIVERSITY
Data Elements

5 cohorts of graduates
o ’05-06, ’06-07, ‘07-08, ’08-09, ‘09-10

6 Employment years
o Year0- the year of the award
o Year1 – year5, relating to 1 year past the award
year to 5 years past the award year
o 2005-06 cohort had full 6 years of data

For each employment year:
 Main employer, number of employers, NAICS
code, wage, time status, student origin and more
Data Preparation

Getting to know the data
• Importing the data, assigning field names
• Adding values for clear output & analysis
NAICS codes, age, race, wage range etc.

Recoding data
◦ Text to numeric
◦ Missing data
◦ Hunting for outliers and deciding what data to
explore

Plan on devoting a hefty share of effort on
this
Research Questions

Wages over time, wages by CIPs, NAICS
codes, gender, race
◦ Statistically significant differences?
CIPS related to NAICS codes
 Career tracks- NAICS changes
 Full time/part time employment
 Number of employers by CIP or NAICS
 How does your data relate to state and
national data?
 And many more…

About EWU’s data
EWU is a regional comprehensive with > 50% First
Gen and a high percentage of Pell recipients- 63% of
undergrads eligible for need-based financial aid
 88% of EWU first-time freshman are from WA State
and 40% are from Spokane County
 Most popular degrees:

◦ Business Administration, Psychology, Biology, Dental
Hygiene and Communication Studies.
Of the 8,786 graduates in the merged file, 87% are
from Washington State.
 44% of the 2005-06 employment cohort had an
employer for each of the 6 years.

◦ Not necessarily unemployed (graduate education, military,
self employment, non-profit, out-of-state employment etc.)
Decreases in NAICS sector %
% of Employment in lower wage NAICS sectors
decreased over time- 2005-06 cohort data
 Accommodation and Food Services
◦ 15% in Year0

Retail Trade
◦ 19% in Year0

4% in Year5
6% in Year5
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
◦ 4% in Year0
2% in Year5
Increases in NAICS Sector %
% of employment in higher wage NAICS sectors
increased over time- 2005-06 cohort
 Educational Services
◦ 8% in Year0

Finance and Insurance
◦ 5% in Year0

9% in Year5
Public Administration
◦ 7% in Year0

20% in Year5
13% in Year5
Health Care and Social Services
◦ 13% in year0
18% in year5
Degrees with a High Number of Employers

Dental Hygiene
◦ 18, 12, 7, 6 and 5 employers

Education
◦ 9, 6, and 5 employers

Other CIPs associated with 4 employers
in the 6 years of data
◦ Engineering Tech, Psychology, Film/Cinema,
Community Health Services, Business Admin,
Marketing, Speech Communication, Spanish
Language/Literature, Interdisciplinary
CIPs with highest percentages of wages
$60,000 or more











Dental Hygiene- 15%
Computer Science- 11%
Interdisciplinary- 9%
Accounting- 7%
Finance- 6%
Marketing- 6%
Mechanical Engineering- 5%
Criminology- 5%
Business Administration- 3%
Biology- 3%
Engineering Tech- 3%
Full-time and Part-time Employment
and Wage Increases Over Time


In Year1 after graduation, % of PT and FT
was the same (30%) 40% not reported
The percentage of PT decreased over time
◦ Year5- 15%

Mean wage rose steadily across the 6 years
(2005-06 cohort)
◦ From the $10,000 - $19,000 wage band in Year1
◦ To $40,000 - $49,000 wage band in year5
CIP wages that increased the most ($20,000
or more) in the 5 years after graduation)
City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning
 Speech-Language Pathology
 Physics
 Mechanical Engineering
 Community Health Services
 Geology
 Chemistry
 Kinesiology and Exercise Science
 Computer and Information Science
 Biology
 Finance
 Teaching (Business, Social Studies, Mathematics, Spanish)

CIP wages that increased the least (less than
$10,000) in the 5 years after graduation







Fine Arts
Anthropology
Humanities
History
Art History
English
Operations Management
Gender Gap

A higher % of females worked part-time
than males for each year in the file (4% 10% difference)

The mean wage was significantly higher
for males than for females in each of the 6
yeas of data (P=.00 for years 0–4 and P=.01
for year5)

When filtered for FT only, the mean wage
was also significantly higher for males
(P=.04 to P=.000)
Changes in NAICS Sectors- Degree Career Tracks






Health Care- mostly health care, some education and
public administration
Visual and Performing Arts – only 4% in an arts and
5% in education
Social Sciences- public administration, health care,
administrative, professional/scientific/enterprises, finance
and retail
Psychology- health care, education
Physical Sciences- professional/scientific/enterprises
and health care
Parks, Recreation and Leisure- health care,
education, public administration
Changes in NAICS Sectors- Degree Career Tracks
Foreign Languages- health care, education
 Engineering- manufacturing,
professional/scientific/enterprises
 Teaching- education, health care, public administration
 Computer Scienceprofessional/scientific/enterprises, manufacturing
 Biology- health care, professional/scientific/enterprises,
manufacturing, education, public administration
 Communication, Journalism- retail, wholesale,
information, finance, education, health care

Putting the Data into Context

Spokane County has the 15th highest
unemployment of the 57 Washington Counties
(Sept. 2012 preliminary)
◦ Spokane County= 8.2%
◦ Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MD = 7.0%

Average Annual Wage of Spokane County is
Comparatively low
◦ Spokane County = $39,931
◦ Washington State = $50,257
◦ King County = $63,268
The Value of Employment Studies

Highlight Career Paths
◦ Specific 4 year college degrees lead to a variety of
professions
◦ Some degrees have a wider path than others
 Communication Studies & History- miles wide
 Health Sciences- narrow path

Provide data to:
◦ help build a case that a 4 year education is “worth it”
(increasing salary and varied employment opportunities)
◦ tell the story of who we are and how we contribute to
our regional economy and services
◦ Support enrollment management strategic planning,
curriculum planning, university/program accreditation,
student advising and state/federal outcomes assessment
WASHINGTON STATE
UNIVERSITY
About WSU
 Founded
in 1890 in Pullman, it is
Washington’s original land-grant
university, with a mission of improving
quality of life
 In addition to the Pullman campus,
WSU has campuses in Spokane, the
Tri-Cities, and Vancouver, extension
offices in every county, and a Global
Campus with online degree programs
accessible worldwide
WSU Growth and Demographics




Substantial growth in the percentage of
Multicultural and First Gen students.
Currently 61% of undergrads are eligible for
need-based financial aid
87% of WSU first-time freshman are WA
residents, 74% Pullman freshmen are from
West of the mountains while Tri-Cities and
Vancouver freshmen are primarily (+90%)
from their immediate region
Business Administration, Social Sciences,
Health Sciences, Engineering, and
Communication degrees are most popular
Degree Recipients
Of the 22,028 graduates in the merged
file, 89% are from Washington State
 Baccalaureate degree production up 4%
 Steady growth in STEM degrees (3%)
 Racial/Ethnic Minorities up 1% and growth
in STEM was 4%
 Women, down1% overall and growth in
STEM was 1%

Why the Focus on STEM
According to Change the Equation (CTEq) in
Washington over the past three years,
prospects for the unemployed have been grim
 For unemployed people with STEM skills,
however, the odds have been much better.
 Overall, jobseekers outnumbered online job
postings by 3.7 to one
 In STEM, job postings outnumbered
unemployed people by 2.1 to one

CTEq is a non-profit, non-partisan CEO-led initiative aimed at stepping up STEM – science,
technology, engineering and mathematics – education in the United States).
Source: changetheequation.org
Employed in Washington
STEM v. Non-STEM
After graduation, 70% of the graduates
were employed in Washington
 15% with STEM degrees
 Four years later the percentage of
graduates employed dropped to 50%
 Four years later the percentage of those
in STEM disciplines was 10%

Earnings Over Time
 STEM
time


earning power increased over
87% STEM earned <20K year 1; 48% earned 50K+ in year 4
85% non-STEM earned < 20K year 1; 30% earned 50K+ in year 4
 Earning
power for Women increased but
at much lower rates than Men


93% Women earned <20K year 1; 27% earned 50K+ in year 4
87% Men earned < 20K year 1; 58% earned 50K+ in year 4
 Earning
power for Minority similar to
Non-minority by year 4


91% Minority earned <20K year 1; 47% earned 50K+ in year 4
88% Non-minority earned < 20K year 1; 46% earned 50K+ in year 4
Still More to Explore
 Very
rich set of data – tell more of
the story
 Deeper dive into the data to look at
career path changes and how it
affects earnings
 Compare alumni survey results with
results of wage data
UNIVERSITY OF
WASHINGTON
Discussion Points

Data limitations: whose wage data is
available?

Advantages of a longitudinal perspective

Ideas for analysis and specific applications
Data Limitations
Generalizations about career outcomes
of particular degrees – even if only instate – require representative samples
 Need to explore correlations between
characteristics of interest and likelihood
of being included in the wage study

Which Students’ Data Do We Have?

A preliminary study for UW data revealed
that the following is associated with a
lower likelihood of inclusion:
◦ Graduating in 2008/09 or 2009/10
◦ Taking longer to graduate
◦ Earning degrees in many STEM fields (e.g.
bioengineering, chemistry, physics,
mathematics, astronomy) as well as some
humanities fields (classics, linguistics, Asian
languages)
Which Students’ Data Do We Have?

A preliminary study for UW data revealed
that the following is associated with a
higher likelihood of inclusion:
◦ Pell eligibility
◦ More major changes before graduation
◦ Graduating from nursing programs, social
work, construction management or the
Tacoma business program
Which Students’ Data Do We Have?

A preliminary study for UW data revealed
that the following is not strongly
associated with likelihood of inclusion:
◦ Number of credits earned at UW
◦ Degree GPA
◦ Type of entry (as a freshman or transfer
student)
◦ Full-time status
Advantages of Longitudinal
Perspective
Allows for moving beyond volatile first
year
 Average wages may behave differently
over time depending on

◦ Degree earned
◦ Graduation year
◦ Industry
Example: Full-time average wages
Example: Percent employed full-time
Political science graduates per
industry, over time
Biology graduates per industry,
over time
Possibilities for future study
Testing effectiveness of programs aimed
to improve workforce placement
 Impact of timing of market entry
 Within a program, impact of:

◦
◦
◦
◦
multiple degrees,
multiple majors,
more credits, or
higher GPA
Remaining limitations
Not capturing work location
 Inability to distinguish “jobs” from careers
 Inability to take into account work
experience gained out of state

Contact Information

Bamby Fields (EWU)-bfields@ewu.edu

Fran Hermanson (WSU)fran.hermanson@wsu.edu

Nevena Lalic (UW)-nlalic@uw.edu

Melissa Beard (ERDC)melissa.beard@ofm.wa.gov