Climate and Cities
Understanding the Risks and Costs
Warren Evans, Director, Environment Department
The World Bank
Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation
Cities and urban areas consume 75 per cent
of the world’s energy and produce nearly 80
per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas
emissions.
The battle to prevent catastrophic climate
change will be won or lost in our cities.
Millions of urban dwellers and businesses
will be adversely impacted by climate change
Minimizimng devastating social, economic and
environmental impacts requires action NOW to
increase climate resilience
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Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation
At the World Bank
1993
Began implementing / leveraging GEF funding for climate
change
1999
Pioneered carbon finance through $180m prototype
Carbon Fund- now at over $2 billion carbon funds
1999
”Fuel for Thought” Environment Strategy for the energy
sector
2001
Environment Strategy with climate change pillar
2006-8 Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF):
(i)
increased energy access, especially in SubSaharan Africa;
(ii) accelerated transition to a low carbon energy
economy;
(iii) adaptation to climate variability and change.
2007
IDA and Climate Change Paper
2008
Strategic Framework on Climate Change and
Development;
Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan
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World Bank Strategic Framework on
Development and Climate Change
Six Areas for Action
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Support climate actions in development processes
Mobilize concessional and innovative finance
Facilitate development of innovative market
mechanisms
Leverage private finance
Accelerate development and deployment of new
technology
Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity
building
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Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
Six Climate Threats
Top 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each
Low Income
High Income
Middle Income
Drought
Flood
Storm
Coastal 1m
Coastal 5m
Agriculture
Malawi
Bangladesh
Philippines
All low-lying
Island States
All low-lying
Island States
Sudan
Ethiopia
China
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Netherlands
Senegal
Zimbabwe
India
Madagascar
Egypt
Japan
Zimbabwe
India
Cambodia
Vietnam
Tunisia
Bangladesh
Mali
Mozambique
Mozambiqu
e
Moldova
Indonesia
Philippines
Zambia
Niger
Laos
Mongolia
Mauritania
Egypt
Morocco
Mauritania
Pakistan
Haiti
China
Brazil
Niger
Eritrea
Sri Lanka
Samoa
Mexico
Venezuela
India
Sudan
Thailand
Tonga
Myanmar
Senegal
Malawi
Chad
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
Fiji
Algeria
Kenya
Benin
Honduras
Senegal
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Iran
Rwanda
Fiji
Libya
Denmark
Pakistan
Source: World Bank staff.
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Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
Climate Risks Are Higher
for Poor Countries
Source: World Bank staff.
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Adaptation: the example of Africa
Impacts on Agriculture…
Where will rural families go?
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Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
How Much Does Adaptation Cost?
There Are Some Estimates, but the Ranges Are Wide and Uncertain
Developing Countries — Estimated Cost of Adaptation by 2030
The implied
change in
temperature is
1.5º C for 2030
Cost estimates
based on
expert opinion
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Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
Good Adaptation is Cost-Effective
Investment in physical
infrastructure
Sea level rise likely to carry
high costs
Adaptation (dark green)
buys a large reduction in
climate change costs (light
green)
Source: European Environment Agency.
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Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
Available Resources
Mitigation
(Total Needs est.
$170bn+ / year)
GEF
$ 0.25 blln
for FY09
Carbon Market:
CDM&JI
< $ 8 billion
for FY09
GEF
$ 0.25 blln
Adaptation
Fund
$ 0.3-0.5 blln
UNDP
$ 0.90-120 blln
for adaptation
Adaptation
(Total Needs est.
$28-67bn / year)
Main Resources
to address
Climate Change
EU
Global Climate
Change Alliance
€ 0. 3 blln
GFDRR
$ 0.07 blln
Both
World Bank
Group
(IBRD/IDA/
IFC/MIGA)
$1.9 billion
for FY09
Climate Investment
Funds by MDBs
$ 6 billion
Other MDBs
$3 billion
for FY09
FY09 estimates are projections
Huge Gap
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URBAN RISKS - Resilience
Understand vulnerabilities including displacement
Understand structural relationships> potential
failures in urban systems
Understand conflicts between built and natural
environment
Understand capacity to recover> Livelihoods and
poverty
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Where People are going…
To cities
To coasts
Of 30 largest cities, 20 in coastal areas
Thousands of smaller cities and towns at risk
Coasts will be moving
Should be considering provision of
infratructure for cities on new
coastline
Should be considering space for
“new” natural areas
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Barriers
A. Complexity- lack of knowledge
B. Lack of awareness
C. Lack of integration between and
across government and other
stakeholders
D. Lack of resources
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Revitalizing Spatial Planning
Surge in informal settlements
Economic pressures
Short-sighted development
Optimizing mitigation and adaptation actions
Harmonizing natural and built infrastructure
Political leadership
14
Ecosystem-based vs Infrastructure Solutions
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Two Major New Initiatives
Climate Resilient Cities
A Primer on
Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters
and
Climate Change Impact and
Adaptation In Asian Coastal
Cities
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Climate Resilient Cities
A Primer on
Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters
The Primer outlines city typologies
It integrates climate change with DRM
It presents a “hot spot” tool for identifying cityspecific priorities for action
It identifies both adaptation and mitigation
strategies at the local level, based on learning
from regional and global sound practices
The Primer is applicable to a range of cities from those starting to build awareness on
climate change to those with climate change
strategies and institutions already in place
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Objectives of the Primer
To understand the issues and impact of climate
change at the city level
To engage in a participatory approach to
establish vulnerabilities to potential climate
change impacts
To learn about the why and the how through
illustrative examples from other cities
To build resilience to future disasters into
planning and design through no-regrets
endeavors
To understand the requirements for moving from
theory to practice
To engage in partnerships and shared learning
with other cities facing similar problems
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Program Components
A. Develop local resilience action plans
Populate Hot Spot risk assessment matrix and
compile City Information Base (Primer tools)
Identify priorities for action & design feasible
programs
B. Strengthen national and local partners for
implementation scale-up in initial countries
Identify and engage national/ local partners at
outset
C. Scale up implementation of resilience action plan
development to 100 cities in East Asia
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Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In
Asian Coastal Cities
 Joint World Bank, ADB, JICA (formerly JBIC) Institute study
 Future climate-change induced flood implications for 2050
 Bangkok, HCMC, Kolkata, Manila
Objectives
 Strengthen the understanding of the economic, social and
environmental impacts of climate variability & change, and
the vulnerabilities of the urban community
 Provide a set of options to mayors, national level decision
makers and urban planners on key policy measures needed
to address adaptation to climate change in coastal cities
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Area affected by regular floods driven
by heavy monsoon rains and high
tides will and flood duration will
increase
Salinity intrusion will increase
Extreme events will increase
Storm surge the key driver for
extreme events and the most
damaging and influential of climate
change parameters
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Significant risk of water shortages during
the dry season due to water quantity and
quality.
Urban population likely to be much higher
than projections, in part due to climate
change refugees
Surface and ground water treatment
plants are at risk of flooding and salinity
Transportation network affected
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