Tình hình kinh tế thế giới
Liệu có trượt sâu trong suy thoái?
Hiroki Shimazu
Phòng Nghiên Cứu Thị Trường
Kinh Tế Gia Cao Cấp
10 August, 2010
Summary
• Thời kỳ “đen tối” nhất gần như đã lùi lại đằng sau .
• Mặc dù còn nhiều lo ngại, nhưng sự hồi phục kinh tế
đang được hỗ trợ bởi chính sách tiền tệ và tài khóa
thông thoáng hơn.
• Những nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển sẽ
đóng vai trò quan trọng trong kinh tế thế giới
• Chính lược “hiện thực hoá lợi nhuận” áp dụng sớm ở
các nền kinh tế phát triển là một trong những rủi ro
cho nền kinh tế toàn cầu.
1
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
Mặc dù thời kỳ đen tối nhất đã lùi lại đằng sau, nhà đầu tưvẫn còn lo ngại
Chart. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Russian Crisis
（Aug 1998）
LTCM Shock
（Sep 1998）
Gulf War
（Aug 1990）
Events of
September 11th
（Sep 2001）
Greek crisis
（May 2010）
Lehman bankruptcy
（Sep 2008）
Hungarian Crisis
（Nov 2008）
WorldCom
bankruptcy
（June 2002）
Asian Crisis
（Jul 1997）
20
10
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sources: CBOE, NY Fed
Note: All dates don't correspond with the very events.
(CY)
2
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
Tăng trưởng kinh tế chậm ở Mỹ trở thành một trong những mối lo ngại lớn
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
Chart. US Real GDP Growth
（QoQ annualized, percent）
Real GDP Growth Rate
Moving Average
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: US BEA
10
11
（CY）
3
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
Mức cầu từ doan nghiệp tăng trưởng mạnh hơn, và yếu hơn từ các hộ gia
dình
Chart. US Real Non-residentioal Investment, the Business Cycles
Chart. US Real PCE and the Business Cycles
（trough＝100）
（trough＝100）
108
106
1991/1Q
2001/4Q
2009/2Q(estimate)
106
104
105
1991/1Q
2001/4Q
104
102
100
2009/2Q(estimate)
103
98
102
96
101
94
92
100
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sources: US BEA and NBER
7
8
（CY）
1
2
3
4
Sources: US BEA and NBER
5
6
7
8
（CY）
4
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
Tăng trưởng kinh tế Mỹ không còn được hỗ trợ bởi việc chỉnh hóa hàng dự
trữ
Chart. US Ratio of Manufacturers' Inventories to Shipments, IP
（percent point）
（YoY, percent）
20
20
Jan 10
26mon
24mon
29mon
17mon
15
24mon
Feb 97
Dec 92
Apr 02
10
Dec 94
15
26mon
33mon
Apr
04
26mon
10
Jul 99
Sep 05
5
Nov 07
5
0
0
Jul 93
29ヶ月
31mon
-5
May 03 Mar 05
-5
22mon
42mon
-10
33ヶ月
Feb 96
Jul
98
Feb
01
Jan 90
19mon
25mon
Ratio of Inventories to Shipments (LH)
Peak of Ratio
Trogh of Ratio
Industrial production (RH)
-15
-20
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
-10
Oct
06
-15
25mon
Nov 08
-20
04
06
08
10
Sources: US Census Bureau and FRB
Note: Discontinued since 1993
（CY）
5
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
Chu kỳ kinh doanh có xu hướng dài hơn chu kỳ hàng tồn kho
Chart. US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
Reference Dated
Duration in Months/Cycle
T-T
P-P
Peak
Trough Contraction Expansion
1945/02
1945/10
8
80
88
93
1948/11
1949/10
11
37
48
45
1953/07
1954/05
10
45
55
56
1957/08
1958/04
8
39
47
49
1960/04
1961/02
10
24
34
32
1969/12
1970/11
11
106
117
116
1973/11
1975/03
16
36
52
47
1980/01
1980/07
6
58
64
74
1981/07
1982/11
16
12
28
18
1990/07
1991/03
8
92
100
108
2001/03
2001/11
8
120
128
128
2007/12 2009/6(?)
1854-2001 (32 Cycles)
17
38
55
56
1945-2001 (10 Cycles)
10
57
67
67
Souce: NBER
6
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
GDP được kéo bởi việc đầu tư vào nhà ở trong ngắn hạn
Chart. US Real GDP Around the Second Expansion
（1958/2Q＝100）
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
58
59
Sources: US BEA and NBER
Note: Shadow indiates the recession.
107
60
図表．米国．景気の「谷」後の実質ＧＤＰ
（「谷」＝100）
61
（CY）
Chart. US Real GDP Around the Shortest Expansion
（1980/3Q＝100）
135
Real GDP
130
PCE
125
Residential Investment
120
Non-residential Investment
115
Export
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
80
81
82
83
Sources: US BEA and NBER
Note: Shadow indiates the recession.
107
（CY）
（「谷」＝100）
106
106
105
104
103
1991/1Q
2001/4Q
2009/2Q
105
104
1991/1Q
2001/4Q
2009/2Q
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
103
7
Các điều kiện thuận lợi được duy trì, đặc biệt với các nền kinh tế mới nổi và
đang phát triển
• Chính sách tiền tệ
– Chính sách tiền tệ thông thoán hơn ở các nước phát triển có
khả năng lan rộng ra toàn cầu và bù đắp cho chính sách thắt
chặt ở các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển
• Chính sách tài khóa
- Mặc dù các nền kinh tế Châu Âu bắt đầu thắt chặt chính sách
tài khóa, các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển vẫn cần
tiếp tục dùng nguồn lực trong nước đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng
• Thay đổi cấu trúc
– Sự phát triển của tầng lớp trung lưu và thượng lưu ở các nên
kinh tế thứ 3 cũng là một yếu tố tích cực
8
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
Tốc độ tăng trưởng tại các nền kinh tế thứ cấp cao hơn ở các nền kinh tế cao
cấp
（2008/2Q＝100）
116
India
Brazil
Australia
Canada
US
Japan
Germany
UK
114
112
110
108
Chart. Real GDP Indices
Indonesia
Korea
NZ
Norwaya
France
Spain
Italy
Emerging
&
Developing
106
104
Commodity
exporters
102
100
98
96
94
Advanced
92
08
Source:OECD
09
10
（CY）
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
9
Các nền kinh tế mới nổi và đang phát triển tiếp tục đóng vai trò quan trọng
hơn
Chart. World GDP Growth Rate (Based on PPP)
（YoY, percent）
Contribution of Emerging & Developing
10
Contribution of Advanced
8
65
Chart. Advanced vs. Emerging and Developing Economies
(GDPshare, percent)
60
Projections
6
55
4
50
Projections
Advanced Economies
Emerging and Developing Economies
45
2
40
0
Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook Database
65
60
55
50
45
Chart. Advanced vs. Emerging and developing economies
(GDPshare, percent)
（CY）
Source: IMF; Wourld Economic Outlook Database
Note: GDP is based on PPP
10
（前年比、％）
図表.世界ＧＤＰ成長率
8
Projections
6
Advanced Economies
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein
4 relies on general information available at present and
Emerging
andso,Developing
writer’s judgment,
they are subject toEconomies
change in the future.
2
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1990
2014
2012
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
2010
（CY）
1992
35
-2
IMF予測
10
Sự tăng trưởng kinh tế toàn cầu càng thuận lợi hơn với khu vực đồng tiền
chung Châu Âu
Chart. Export Function Estimates
EMU
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
US
Japan
Income
Term
Price
Term
0.747
1.457
(31.955)
0.993
1.768
(47.010)
0.436
1.146
(16.870)
0.638
1.859
(11.396)
0.583
1.471
(14.553)
0.469
1.488
(7.270)
0.823
1.420
(6.125)
-0.253
-0.494
(2.893)
-0.079
-0.141
(0.775)
-0.636
-1.671
(5.490)
-0.909
-2.650
(8.304)
-0.096
-0.242
(0.981)
-0.531
-1.683
(3.356)
-0.232
-0.401
(1.110)
Adj-R2
DW
0.987
0.304
0.991
0.608
0.935
0.443
0.871
0.316
0.971
0.276
0.952
0.160
0.963
0.451
Sources: OECD, IMF, US Census Bureau, Statistical office Germany,
Insee(France), INS(Italy), Cabinet Office(Japan)
Notes: Periods;From 1999/1Q to 2009/4Q, Quatary
ln(EX) = Const + αln(WTR) + βln(REXPP)
WTR: Volume of World Trade
REXPP: Relative Export Price in USD
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
11
Việc“hiện thực hóa lợi nhuận” sớm làm giảm tính thanh khoản là một rủi ro
với sự hồi phục kinh tế toàn cầu
70
（YoY, percent）
Chart. World Dollar
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Source:FRB
Note: World dollar = US Base money + US treasury securities
in custody for foreign official and international accounts
160
140
（前年比、％）
04
06
（前年比、％）
80
ＷＴＩ先物（左）
70
ＮＹ金先物（右）
60
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.
100
10
（CY）
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
120
08
50
12
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13
Japan.
This document is created exclusively for your entity and your internal usage. . Information set forth herein relies on general information available at present and
writer’s judgment, so, they are subject to change in the future.