Obesity: Research and Policy
• Is there a problem?
Since 1970’s, number of obese people grew 50%.
Projection: By 2010, 1/3 of Americans will be obese.
Obese: 5’5” woman, 190 pds. 6’ man, 235 pds.
Surgeon general: Kids who are obese:
1970’s 7%, 1999 13%
Surgeon general and other sources:
Annual deaths linked to obesity (300,000), tobacco
(400,000) alcohol (100,000), illegal drugs (20,000)
Obesity: Research and Policy
• Whose problem is it?
Half of health care costs are paid by taxpayers.
(1) Percent federal budget spent on health care 1962 (2%)
2006 (25%)
(2) Surgeon general: obesity costs $117b per year. ($61b
direct costs - medical care. Indirect - lost wages, death.
Indirect costs are 4.7% of total public and private health
care costs. Health care as a whole is about 15% of GDP.)
Other estimates in the same range.
(3) CDC:direct and indirect costs of tobacco use $100b/yr
(4) Private expenditures on weight loss, $33b/yr 1996
Two Explanations:
How do they fit together?
• The Social Science Explanation
• The Science-based Explanation
Obesity: the social explanation.
• What do Chou, Grossman, Saffer study?
The economic reasons obesity has increased.
In particular, prices! (surprise: these are economists)
• Housekeeping: What type of data do they have? Is it
believable?
• In what sense is obesity the downside of greater
labor market participation of females?
less home time, more restaurants... indirect effect.
• How much does economics explain?
“R-square” is about 8%. What does this mean?
Obesity: the social explanation.
• Economic variables: prices, availability
Increase in fast-food restaurants (doubled 1972-1997) and other
restaurants (35% increase 1972-1997)
Sweeteners: Consumption rose from 123 pounds per capita in 1980
to 155.1 pounds in 1998.
Labor market participation of married women jumped from 41% in
1970 to 62% in 1998. Real income rose.
Real price of cigarettes rose 164% 1980 to 2001
• Regression analysis. Two large effects.
(1) obesity tracks availability of restaurants. Or... (authors are
cautious)... availability tracks social factors.
(2) obesity tracks the price of cigarettes! High price, quit smoking,
gain weight. Unintended consequences?
Obesity: the scientific explanation.
• This one is even harder.
What do we make of the 8% R-squared?
• What causes obesity: social or scientific factors?
• In the face of scientific ambiguity, how should we make
policy? How should policy reflect the balance of science
and social behavior?
• Tax carbs? Tax butter? Tax fat people?
Tax fast-food restaurants? Ban fast-food restaurants?
“Discriminate” against fat people in insurance rates?
Regulating Products for Consumers
• Tort Liability:
Two Causes of Action for Products Liability:
Design Defects (consent is a defense)
Production Defects
Which are these?
Cigarettes
Ford Pinto
Fast Food
Cockroach in your Coca Cola
Regulating Products for Consumers
• What is consumer sovereignty?
• What are the rationales for regulation
seat belts
building codes (residential vs commercial)
(Cocoanut Grove fire)
drugs (Thalidomide)
• How does tort liability keep bad products off the
market? Is fast food a bad product?
• If the government regulates fast food, should the
government require that we all drink red wine?
In any case, who regulates?
• What are the missions of USDA, FTC and FDA
• Nestle readings: Who should regulate, and will it
work?
Are supplements drugs?
Does the food pyramid have anything to do with food safety?
What is the difference between health and safety?
Should the FDA care?
Should the safety and efficacy standards apply?
• NIH: publicly sponsored research