The State of the Church in Kansas 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Kansas, and what the complete “State of the Church in Kansas” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Kansas that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UKS20.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 3 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Kansas Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Kansas?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Kansas will begin to take shape. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Kansas has an attendance percentage (22.7%) that is higher than the average for the nation (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 5 Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend 2000 11.8% 14.0% NH WA 17.5% 11.2% 13.2% 29.4% MT 23.2% ND ME VT MN 14.5% OR 14.4% 11.4% 24.6% 28.0% ID 14.0% NY WI SD 20.6% WY 20.3% CA 20.3% 15.2% UT IL CO 22.7% KS AZ 21.7% IN WV 22.1% MO OK NM 22.7% NC TN 25.0% 28.6% 16.0% DC DE 17.7% MD 23.3% SC 26.7% MS TX 18.0% VA KY AR 19.1% CT NJ 17.4% 21.5% 22.0% 17.8% 16.0% OH 23.5% 14.3% 17.2% PA IA 3.1% NV RI 20.5% 24.7% NE 14.8% 20.1% MI 23.8% 9.7% MA 15.5% 26.9% AL 23.3% GA 29.4% LA 15.1% AK 15.1% 13.4% HI 0.0% to 14.4% 14.4% to 17.5% 17.5% to 20.6% 20.6% to 23.5% 23.5% to 29.4% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use FL 6 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Kansas. Church attendance is higher in western Kansas than in eastern Kansas. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7 Kansas - Counties - 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in All Christian Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest 23.7% Rawlins 19.8% Cheyenne 18.1% Sherman 23.9% Wallace 17.2% Thomas 32.9% Logan 36.8% Decatur 37.5% Sheridan 33.8% Gove 30.7% Norton 35.3% Graham 30.8% Trego 33.5% Phillips 36.2% Rooks 52.1% Smith 36.2% Osborne 32.3% Jewell 34.8% Mitchell 19.7% Lincoln 21.4% Ellis 26.8% Wichita 35.2% Scott 26.1% Lane 38.3% Ness 25.7% Rush 33.3% Barton 20.7% Rice 25.5% Hamilton 28.5% Kearny 19.7% Hodgeman 20.2% Finney 23.7% Stanton 27.5% Grant 31.9% Morton 26.2% Stevens 38.2% Stafford 23.0% Ford 25.9% Kiowa 26.4% Haskell 16.2% Seward 49.6% Meade 29.6% Clark 28.3% Clay 16.4% Riley 47.8% Comanche 27.7% Pratt 40.1% Barber 27.5% Reno 15.5% Pottawatomie 22.8% Dickinson 27.8% Saline 16.9% Geary 19.5% Wabaunsee 22.0% Morris 81.5% McPherson 23.5% Brown 12.7% Jackson 21.9% Shawnee 21.7% Doniphan 25.1% Atchison 14.1% Leavenworth 18.2% 19.8% Jefferson Wyandotte 14.4% Osage 13.2% Douglas 21.8% Johnson 16.3% Franklin 19.1% Miami 34.8% Anderson 21.3% Linn 22.1% Lyon 17.9% Marion 29.7% Chase 26.2% Coffey 32.9% Harvey 23.9% Sedgwick 20.3% Butler 37.1% Kingman 35.4% Harper 40.3% Nemaha 17.4% Ottawa 18.2% Pawnee 29.9% Edwards 39.6% Gray 27.5% Marshall 40.5% Washington 29.1% Cloud 33.9% Russell 27.3% Ellsworth 38.0% Greeley 30.1% Republic 23.4% Greenwood 25.7% Elk 24.3% Sumner 21.4% Cowley 24.8% Chautauqua 28.0% Woodson 29.3% Allen 26.9% Wilson 22.9% Neosho 27.7% Montgomery 23.7% Labette 26.7% Bourbon 19.7% Crawford 22.7% Cherokee 0.0% to 22.9% 22.9% to 29.6% 29.6% to 82.5% The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Kansas. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. Blue counties declined in population. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9 Kansas - Counties - 2000 Population 2,966 3,165 Rawlins Cheyenne 3,472 5,953 Decatur Norton 6,001 Phillips 4,536 Smith 3,791 Jewell 5,835 Republic 13,361 Marshall 6,483 Washington 10,268 6,760 Sherman 1,749 Wallace 8,180 Thomas 3,046 Logan 2,813 Sheridan 3,068 Gove 2,946 Graham 3,319 Trego 5,685 Rooks 4,452 Osborne 6,932 Mitchell 3,578 Lincoln 27,507 Ellis 8,822 Clay 1,534 Greeley 2,531 Wichita 5,120 Scott 2,155 Lane 3,454 Ness 3,551 Rush 10,761 Saline 2,085 Hodgeman 40,523 Hamilton 4,531 Finney 10,965 McPherson 2,406 Stanton 7,909 Grant 4,789 4,307 Haskell 451,086 Johnson 24,784 Franklin 28,351 Miami 8,865 8,110 Anderson 9,570 Linn Harvey 7,673 Reno Pratt 99,962 Douglas 32,869 64,790 452,869 9,647 3,278 Kiowa 16,712 Osage 3,030 Chase 59,482 32,458 Ford Shawnee Wabaunsee Coffey 3,449 Edwards 5,904 Gray 6,885 Leavenworth 157,882 Wyandotte 35,935 Lyon 29,554 Marion 7,233 Pawnee Stafford Kearny 27,947 Geary 6,104 Morris Rice 2,670 Jefferson 28,205 Barton 68,691 169,871 19,344 Dickinson 53,597 Jackson 18,426 6,163 Ottawa 7,370 Russell 6,525 Ellsworth Pottawatomie 62,843 Riley 8,249 Doniphan 16,774 Atchison 12,657 18,209 Cloud 10,724 Brown 10,717 Nemaha 8,673 Greenwood 3,788 Woodson 14,385 Allen 15,379 Bourbon Butler Sedgwick Kingman 3,261 10,332 Wilson 16,997 Neosho 38,242 Crawford Elk 3,496 Morton 5,463 Stevens 22,510 Seward 4,631 Meade 2,390 Clark 5,307 1,967 Comanche Barber 6,536 Harper 25,946 Sumner 36,291 Cowley 4,359 Chautauqua 36,252 22,835 Montgomery Labette 22,605 Cherokee 0 to 5,307 5,307 to 14,385 14,385 to 452,870 Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Kansas in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12 1990 Ethnicity of Kansas Asian 1% Hispanic 4% Non-Hispanic Black 6% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic White 89% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 13 Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity Kansas 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population 92.1% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 64.8% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 8.5% 10.0% 0.0% -6.2% -10.0% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Asian 15 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Kansas in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have grown in attendance, while Mainline and Catholic churches have declined. Unfortunately, while overall worship attendance has decreased somewhat, population has continued to grow, meaning that the Church in Kansas has declined substantially in the percentage of population attending church. The second graph shows a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence by looking at the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 16 Kansas Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000 700,000 613,396 609,861 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 251,965 267,691 172,900 200,000 187,236 167,123 173,751 100,000 © 2004 by David T. Olson 2000 Total 1990 Total 2000 Catholic 1990 Catholic 2000 Mainline 1990 Mainline 2000 Evangelical 1990 Evangelical - Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Kansas in 1990 and 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 19 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance 10.0% 6.2% 6.5% Evangelical Mainline Catholic Absent 77.3% © 2004 by David T. Olson Kansas - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population - 1990 & 2000 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -2.1% -10.0% -8.4% -10.9% -14.5% -20.0% -30.0% Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Total The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Kansas. The Pie Chart shows how Catholic, Christian, Methodist and Baptist churches predominate. The second and third charts show that all 8 groups have declined in the percentage of the population attending that denominational family. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 22 Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families 1990 & 2000 Increase and Decrease in the Percentage of the Population in a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family 0.0% -0.6% -2.0% -3.4% -4.0% -4.2% Baptist -5.9% -6.0% Methodist -6.9% Reformed Lutheran -8.0% Pentecostal -8.6% Catholic Christian -10.0% Other -12.0% -13.2% -14.0% -14.5% -16.0% Baptist Methodist Reformed Lutheran Pentecostal Catholic Christian Other The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 26 1990 & 2000 Kansas Average Church Attendance 900 794 794 800 700 600 472 500 491 1990 Kansas 2000 Kansas 1990 US Average 400 2000 US Average 300 172 175 200 119 125 124 131 143 146 115 99 101 112 100 Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 27 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Kansas in 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 29 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County Kansas - Counties - 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest 12.0% Rawlins 5.0% Cheyenne 5.3% Sherman 6.5% Wallace 7.8% Thomas 12.4% Logan 10.2% Decatur 20.5% Sheridan 16.5% Gove 7.1% Norton 8.0% Graham 12.4% Trego 5.0% Phillips 12.8% Rooks 2.3% Smith 7.5% Osborne 3.0% Jewell 15.8% Mitchell 3.3% Lincoln 16.0% Ellis 11.1% Wichita 6.4% Scott 6.7% Lane 15.9% Ness 11.1% Rush 14.6% Barton 4.9% Rice 8.5% Hamilton 9.5% Kearny 7.3% Hodgeman 10.6% Finney 8.4% Stanton 9.6% Grant 4.7% Morton 4.2% Stevens 4.4% Stafford 9.2% Ford 2.3% Kiowa 2.4% Haskell 4.9% Seward 8.9% Meade 6.4% Clark 2.8% Clay 1.3% Comanche 7.9% Pratt 8.2% Barber 4.7% Reno 3.7% Ottawa 5.1% Dickinson 8.8% Saline 1.7% Geary 3.3% Wabaunsee 6.9% Morris 3.9% McPherson 5.1% Brown 3.1% Jackson 6.1% Shawnee 3.4% Doniphan 9.5% Atchison 4.9% Leavenworth 5.0% 5.4% Jefferson Wyandotte 3.9% Osage 2.9% Douglas 8.3% Johnson 2.2% Franklin 7.5% Miami 9.4% Anderson 1.6% Linn 4.5% Lyon 0.3% Marion 6.2% Chase 2.9% Coffey 4.4% Harvey 6.5% Sedgwick 5.2% Butler 11.9% Kingman 8.3% Harper 20.9% Nemaha 5.5% Pottawatomie 3.8% Riley 7.4% Pawnee 14.0% Edwards 5.1% Gray 9.6% Marshall 8.9% Washington 9.5% Cloud 7.2% Russell 6.7% Ellsworth 9.6% Greeley 5.0% Republic 2.5% Greenwood 0.7% Elk 8.2% Sumner 2.9% Cowley 0.4% Chautauqua Woodson 4.7% Allen 3.8% Wilson 6.8% Neosho 3.8% Montgomery 2.2% Labette 4.6% Bourbon 7.0% Crawford 7.8% Cherokee 0.0% to 4.9% 4.9% to 8.2% 8.2% to 21.9% No data The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 27 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 78 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 33 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Kansas between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 56 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 49 counties declined. For mainline churches, 18 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 87 counties declined. For Catholics, 33 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 71 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 35 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County Kansas - Counties - 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Growth 21.9% -42.1% 23.2% -19.7% Cheyenne Rawlins Decatur Norton 33.3% Phillips 17.1% Smith -42.5% Jewell -6.1% Republic -37.5% Marshall -39.4% Washington -41.0% -31.9% Sherman -34.1% Wallace -11.6% Thomas -37.5% -14.6% Sheridan -33.1% Gove Logan -33.5% Graham -18.9% Trego -14.8% Rooks 20.8% Osborne -23.7% Mitchell -6.2% Lincoln -44.5% Ellis -53.6% Cloud -28.7% Clay -21.4% 53.9% 137.3% -15.8% Greeley Wichita Scott Lane Ness -44.2% Rush -16.0% Rice -11.8% Dickinson -67.4% Geary Saline -35.6% -15.0% -15.5% Hamilton Kearny 211.2% Stanton 81.4% Grant 148.3% Stafford -13.0% Edwards -16.0% Gray -53.7% 6.8% 45.2% Morton Stevens Seward -27.5% McPherson -11.1% Ford 78.5% -39.2% Clark -21.2% Comanche 43.7% Chase Shawnee -10.9% Douglas -10.8% 2.6% Johnson -51.7% 33.4% Franklin Miami Coffey -44.4% Anderson -22.4% Linn 1.3% Woodson Allen 51.1% Bourbon 28.1% Wilson Neosho -2.7% Montgomery Labette -0.4% Harvey -32.8% -11.0% Sedgwick Greenwood Butler -17.5% Kingman Barber -33.6% Wyandotte -10.2% -11.3% 6.4% Pratt Leavenworth -34.8% Lyon -89.2% Marion Reno Kiowa 5.7% Meade -30.6% 42.8% Osage Morris 17.6% -73.7% Haskell -26.2% Atchison -13.8% Jackson Pawnee Hodgeman Finney -34.0% Wabaunsee 135.2% -26.8% 40.2% -52.2% Doniphan -39.6% Jefferson -9.9% Barton -31.2% Brown -31.8% 8.2% 58.1% Pottawatomie 0.3% Riley 3.6% Ottawa -31.8% Russell -29.8% Ellsworth -17.3% Nemaha 56.5% Harper -65.2% Elk 14.6% -4.2% Sumner Cowley -36.1% Chautauqua 44.4% -72.3% Decline Growth No data -4.6% Crawford 237.7% Cherokee The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Kansas in the past decade. There was a net loss of 108 churches. However, 364 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 39 Increase in Churches in Kansas Between 1990 & 2000 364 400 300 200 100 29 0 -43 -93 -100 -108 -200 Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain © 2004 by David T. Olson Increase Needed to Maintain 1990 Ratio of Churches to Population The State of the Church in Kansas . . . Because of population growth plus declining church attendance, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges. The percentage of the population attending church has been declining for all groups. This resulted in a 8% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Kansas. Four hundred and seventy-two additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 41 For More Information . . . Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church. 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm The complete Kansas Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UKS20.htm The Complete Kansas City Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Kansas and Kansas City Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/KS0.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 42 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 43 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 44 For More Information . . . Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 45