Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. ENGINEERING ECONOMY Fifth Edition Blank and Tarquin Mc Graw Hill CHAPTER 13 BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 1 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. ENGINEERING ECONOMY Fifth Edition Blank and Tarquin Mc Graw Hill CHAPTER 13 Learning Objectives Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 2 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Learning Objectives 1. The Breakeven Point. 2. Breakeven Analysis Between Two Alternatives. 3. Spreadsheet Application – Using Excel’s Solver for Breakeven Analysis. 4. Chapter Summary. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 3 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. ENGINEERING ECONOMY Fifth Edition Blank and Tarquin Mc Graw Hill CHAPTER 13 13.1 Breakeven Analysis for a Single Project Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 4 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Understanding Breakeven Given P, F, A, i, n; If all of the parameters shown above are known except one, then the unknown parameter can be calculated or approximated; A breakeven value can be determined by setting PW, FW, or AW = 0 and solve or approximate for the unknown parameter. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 5 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Solving for a Breakeven Value Two approaches for solving for an unknown parameter: 1. Direct Solution manually if only one interest factor is involved in the setup; 2. Trial and Error – manually if multiple factors are present in the formulation; 3. Spreadsheet model where the Excel financial functions { PV, FV, RATE, IRR, NPV, PMT, and NPER are part of the modeling process: (use Goal Seek or Solver). Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 6 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 A Cost – Revenue Model Approach A popular application of Breakeven (BE) is where cost – revenue – volume relationships are studied; We define cost and revenue functions and assume some linear or non-linear cost or revenue relationships to model; One objective: Find a parameter that will minimize costs or maximize profits – termed QBE. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 7 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Cost Models – Fixed Costs Fixed Costs – Cost that do not vary with production or activity levels Costs of buildings; Insurance; Fixed Overhead; Equipment capital recovery; etc. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 8 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Variable Costs Costs that vary with the level of activity; Direct Labor – wages; Materials; Indirect costs; Marketing; Advertising; Warranty; Etc. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 9 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Fixed Costs Essentially constant for all values of the variable in question; If no level of activity, fixed costs continue; Must shut down the activity before fixed costs can be altered downward; To buffer fixed costs one must work on improved efficiencies of operations. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 10 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Variable Costs Variable Costs change with the level of activity; More activity – greater variable costs; Less activity – lover variable costs; Variable costs are impacted by efficiency of operation, improved designs, quality, safety, and higher sales volume. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 11 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Total Costs Total Cost = Fixed Costs + Variable Costs; TC = FC + VC; Profit Relationships; Profit = Revenue – Total Cost P = R – TC P = R –{FC + VC}. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 12 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Cost – Revenue Relationships Linear Models; Non-linear models; Linear and non-linear models are used as approximations to reality; A basic linear Cost Relationship is shown on the next slide. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 13 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Figure 16-1 Linear and nonlinear revenue and cost relations used in breakeven analysis. WCB/McGraw-Hill © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1998 Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 14 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Basic Cost Relationship (Linear) C O S T Total Costs Variable Costs Fixed Costs ( level) Q – Level of Activity per time unit Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 15 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Non-linear Models Non-linear Models; One or more of the relationships is (are) non-linear; Example Follows: Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 16 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Basic Cost Relationship (Linear) C O S T Total Costs Variable Costs Fixed Costs ( level) Q – Level of Activity per time unit Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 17 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Breakeven The breakeven point, QBE is the point where the revenue and total cost relationships intersect: For non-linear forms, it is possible to have more than one QBE point. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 18 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Breakeven… Revenue and Total cost relationships tend to be static in nature; May not truly reflect reality of the dynamic firm; However, the breakeven point(s) can be useful for planning purposes. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 19 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Reduction of Variable costs BE point Changes When the VC’s are Lowered. Figure 16-2 Effect on the breakeven point when the variable cost per unit is reduced. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 20 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Non-linear BE illustration For non-linear analysis the point of maximum profit is of interest; And, multiple BE’s may exist; See the next slide! Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 21 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.1 Non-linear Analysis Breakeven Points And Profit Maximization for A Non-linear Model Figure 16-3 Breakeven points and maximum-profit point for a nonlinear analysis. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 22 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. ENGINEERING ECONOMY Fifth Edition Blank and Tarquin Mc Graw Hill CHAPTER 13 Breakeven Analysis Between Two Alternatives Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 23 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.2 Two Alternative Analysis Given two alternatives (assume mutually exclusive) Need to determine a common variable or economic parameter common to both alternatives; Could be: Interest rate, First cost (investment), Annual operating cost, Etc. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 24 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.2 Breakeven for two alternatives Common analysis considers: Revenue or Costs Common to both options. Assume a linear revenue-cost relationship…… See figure 13-7 (next slide)……. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 25 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.2 Breakeven for Two Alternatives Total Cost Relationships for Two alternatives. Note the intersection Of the two TC Plots. Both alternatives Are equal. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 26 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.2 Two Alternative Analysis The preferred approach is to define either a: Present worth relationships or, Annual worth relationships and, Set to two expressions equal and solve for the parameter or variable of interest. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 27 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.2 Three Alternative Analysis If three alternatives are present… Compare the alternatives pair-wise or, Use a spreadsheet model to plot the present worth or annual worth over a specified range of values. A typical three alternative plot might look like …. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 28 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. Breakeven for Three Alternatives Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 29 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13. 2 Non-linear Breakeven When variable cost relationships are non-linear, the analysis becomes more complicated; Use of spreadsheet models and plotting aids are suggested. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 30 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. ENGINEERING ECONOMY Fifth Edition Blank and Tarquin Mc Graw Hill CHAPTER 13 13.3 Spreadsheet Application – Using Excel’s Solver for Breakeven Analysis Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 31 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Use of Excel’s Solver Tool SOLVER is one of many built-in Excel analysis tools; Solver has been designed to aid in more complex forms of “goal seeking” and performing “what-if” evaluations of properly constructed models. See Appendix A, Section A.4 of the text. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 32 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 SOLVER For a properly constructed model, solver will require that the analyst: Specifies a target cell (the objective); One or more cell(s) that will have to change in order to achieve the desired target cell value. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 33 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Target Cell The target cell MUST contain a valid Excel formula or function; One can: Maximize the target cell value or, Minimize the cell value 0r, Set to some predetermined cell value (like “0”, etc.); The target cell cannot be a cell reference; Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 34 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Changing Cell(s) Solver requires the analyst to identify one or more cells that must change to achieve the desired result in the target cell; Changing cells are, in reality, the decision variables in the model; One or more cells are identified that directly or indirectly impact the target cell. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 35 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Achieving the Target Cell Objective If the model is properly constructed and the cell formulas/functions are logically linked, then: Solver will iterate the designated “change” cells until the target cell value is achieved as close as possible. Solver will generate either exact decision variable values or closely approximated decision cell values. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 36 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Target Cell Achievement If the proper linkages are built into the model, solver can achieve values for the various decision values; At times, solver might not find feasible values for the decision variables. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 37 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 See Example 13.5 Example 13.5 page 436. Note the application of the financial functions PMT and PV in this model. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 38 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Figure 13-10 Example 13.5 Cell to change – first Cost of Machine 1 Target Cell Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 39 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Changing Cell for Ex. 13.5 The objective here is to find the breakeven value of Machine 1’s initial first cost so that the two machines are economically identical at the 10% interest rate. The analysis shows that if Machine 1 could be purchased for $6,564 then the two alternatives will have the same annual worth at 10%. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 40 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13.3 Additional Analysis The example also shows what the net cash flow for machine 1 must be to equate to Machine 2. Choice of what parameters to study are left up to the analyist. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 41 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. ENGINEERING ECONOMY Fifth Edition Blank and Tarquin Mc Graw Hill CHAPTER 13 Chapter Summary Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 42 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13 – Summary Breakeven point for a variable X is normally expressed as: Units per time period; Hours per month; Etc. At breakeven, QBE one is indifferent regarding a project. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 43 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 13 Summary Typical models are: Linear or, Non-linear. Two or more alternatives can be compared using breakeven analysis; BE analysis can be a form of sensitivity analysis; Complex models can be evaluated using Excel’s Solver feature. Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 44 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. ENGINEERING ECONOMY Fifth Edition Blank and Tarquin Mc Graw Hill CHAPTER 13 End of Slide Set Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.13 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 45