1 INTRODUCTION TO MONITORING AND EVALUATION SYSTEMS POVERTY REDUCTION AND EQUITY GACEVEDO@WORLDBANK.ORG Why M&E Systems? 2 1. 2. 3. 4. Improve the effectiveness of public policy Improve the allocation of public expenditure for higher welfare Increase accountability Strengthen design, implementation, and results of programs and policies Outline of the Presentation 3 1. What is M&E? 2. How M&E influences Policy? 3. Country M&E Systems 4 1.- What is M&E Monitoring 5 Provides regular information on performance A continuing function 1) Indication of extent of progress towards goals - poverty rates - coverage of basic services 2) systematic data collection 3) usually conducted in-house What to Monitor? 6 1. 2. Identify few indicators that can be measured and are of interest to policy makers Prioritize input, output, outcome and impact indicators for monitoring Inputs 3. Outputs Outcomes Develop a data collection system to sustain monitoring Impact How to Monitor? 7 • • • Use different types of information: surveys and censuses, administrative data, and participatory exercises Draw on logical framework and arrangements for results monitoring which identifies: -Data sources for each indicator -Frequency of measurements -The organization responsible for collecting information. Different types of Monitoring: -Annual progress report -Database for continuous monitoring -Desk reviews Evaluation 8 Evaluation helps to analyze deviations from targets and goals ( e.g Why learning achievement increased? Why poverty decreased?) Usually conducted by independent evaluators A systematic and objective measurement of the results achieved by a project/program/policy What to Evaluate? 9 Evaluation can be time and resource intensive Plan ahead evaluation and identify questions Strategy, operation, and learning Reserve impact evaluation in cases such as Strategic significance of a policy or program Contributing to close knowledge gap Innovative nature of the policy or program Trade Offs in Evaluation Experimental with random assignment High Quasiexperimental with statistical controls Strength of causal inference Participant judgment and expert opinion Low Beforeand-after Low High Complexity and sometimes cost Summing up… 11 Monitoring assesses progress in implementation of ongoing programs Evaluation provides a snapshot against some benchmarks Monitoring looks at progress relative to targets and assumes there is causality Evaluation seeks to establish and prove causality 12 2. How M&E influences Policy? M&E and the Policy Cycle 13 M&E needs to accompany the policy cycle so decisions can be based on evidence Define what you want set goals and targets what might work to reach targets design programs and evaluate ex-ante Analyze set performance indicators, a monitoring system , and implement evaluations Implement But we are far from there… 14 4 years ago, more than half of programs in Mexico had no logical frameworks Countries seldom set targets using scientific methods: No explicit objectives, no definition of target population Reduce violent crimes from x to y in 5 yrs… is that a meager performance or a great performance? Countries rarely define the outcome (say, nutrition), and then decide in which sector the correct intervention is Countries seldom analyze ex ante who the winners and losers of a policy are The Results Chain Definition of Objectives and Targets Policy and Program Design Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impacts Results Implementation Amount of services provided Health literacy Consumption, Life expectancy, poverty The Results Chain Planning Stage Definition of Objectives and Targets Policy and Program Design Inputs Activities Outputs Implementation •What are the extent and causes of poverty in a given country? •How is a proposed policy expected to affect the poor? •How to set strategic targets for a given policy/program? Outcomes Results Impacts The Results Chain (cont) Monitoring Stage Definition of Objectives and Targets Policy and Program Design Inputs Activities Outputs Implementation •What is a given policy/program trying to achieve? •What are the causal links through which the project is supposed to achieve its goals? •Is the project achieving its objectives? How to measure outputs and outcomes? Outcomes Results Impacts The Results Chain •Is the execution of the project activities conducive to the expected results? •Are the chosen indicators good indicators? •What is the impact of the intervention? •Are the changes in well-being indeed attributable to the intervention? Definition of Objectives and Targets Policy and Program Design Inputs Activities Outputs Implementation Evaluation Stage Outcomes Results Impacts Several methods to support evidence policy 19 Performance indicators The logical framework (logframe) approach Theory-based evaluation Formal surveys Rapid appraisal methods Participatory methods Public expenditure tracking surveys Impact evaluation Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis Example: Consistency and Results Consistency and Results covers: Design, Strategic Planning, Target Population and Coverage, Operation, Perception of Beneficiaries and Final Results. Instrument applied by external institutions under terms of reference prepared by a Central Unit The evaluation includes a Summary Strengths, Challenges and Recommendations for every program Consistency and Results: Questions DESIGN Does de program identifies clearly the problem it’s trying to solve? Is it clear that the products or services produced by the program logically contribute to reduce the problem the program is tacking? STRATEGIC PLANNING Does the program have updated strategic plans for the short, middle and long-term? In the S-plan, does the final results are clearly established? TARGET POPULATION AND COVERAGE Does the program have a method to identify and quantify the potential and target population? Does the program have a coverage strategy for the short, middle and longterm? Consistency and Results Questions (cont) OPERATION Are there standard and adequate procedures for the selection of projects, beneficiaries? Are there documents showing that the procedures are done according to the rules of operation. PERCEPTION OF BENEFICIARIES Does the program have instruments to measure the satisfaction of the beneficiaries with the program? FINAL RESULTS Does the program systematically collect objective information about its Goal (Fin y Propósito)? Does the program have rigorous impact evaluations? Findings CONEVAL-Mexico Topic Findings have a Purpose and Goal that relate to the problem’s 67% solution. DESIGN of the programs defined necessary and enough outputs 50% to achieve the Purpose. of the plans clearly establish the results they want to 21% accomplish. STRATEGIC PLANNING of the programs have strategic plans in the short, middle 23% and long-term. of the programs quantify the target and potential TARGET POPULATION AND COVERAGE 24% population. of the programs have a coverage strategy for the short, 23% middle and long-term. Findings CONEVAL-Mexico Topic Findings have standardized and adequate procedures for the 72% project/ beneficiaries selection. OPERATION of the programs have efficacy indicators in their 84% operation. BENEFICIARIES PERCEPTION of the programs have instruments to measure the 50% satisfaction level of the target population. of the programs collect objective information about 34% their final results. FINAL RESULTS have external evaluations that allow to measure their 26% impact. 25 3. Country M&E Systems Country M&E Systems: Keys for success Systems which permit the generation of information (basic data, indicators, evaluations, etc), reliable, credible and high quality Improve the supply A high level of utilization of the information generated by the M&E system Incentives from the demand side Sustainability for the future The demand side: specific uses of an M&E system (or..why it’s needed?) To support government planning at the national, sub national, local and sectoral level in the establishment of targets/goals and permanently ask the question why are targets not being met? focus on results To support management public programs through monitor and evaluate performance and effectiveness To informing the redesign and design of programs and interventions To inform budget allocation decisions To facilitate accountability Contradictoy? Countries choose one or all of these roles for M&E systems Increasing effective demand and use of M&E Pressure from civil society for budget accountability and vigilance of state´s performance Need to maintain macro - equilibrium and simultaneous pressures to extend coverage of public services efficiency Produce information (data , indicators, evaluations) which can effectively be used. Worry about the trust on the quality of information Incentives for sectoral and budget officials, congress, etc. so that they use the information Leaders who persuade and motivate the government to use the information generated a champion (person or institution) of results-orientation All this is usually more important than legislation Building blocks on the supply side 1. Improve Statistics: household surveys, sectoral surveys and censuses Better administrative records and sectoral statistics Integration of systems to generate input and outcome indicators Regional and local level data to feed the production of M&E Sectoral/program monitoring systems Government –wide monitoring systems (Systems of presidential goals, PRS monitoring). Performance Ex-ante evaluation systems for public services and Ex-post Evaluations (Process evaluations , Rapid Assessments, Impact E.) Ensuring sustainability Permanently redefine the system. M&E tools have to be effectively used to improve performance and effectiveness of the state at all levels: Are we spending right? Are programs being well implemented? Are programs attaining its targets? Are we spending on the right things? Are programs being effective Establishing strategic alliances: M&E a permanent function of different entities that should work together Finance ministries Planning agencies, Supreme Audit Institutions National Statistical Offices Evaluation offices ( embedded in an high leverage institutions) Sector ministries and its statistical offices Local governments 32 Thanks you