Climate Change and its Challenges for Agriculture
and Food Security
by Dyborn Chibonga, NASFAM CEO
Presentation at ACP-EU Follow-up Committee meeting to be held on January 25-26, 2016 at the EESC in Brussels, Belgium
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Overview of Presentation
1.
Introduction – Agriculture and Climate
Change
2.
No International Unity about Climate
Change
3.
International Response to Climate
Change
4.
The 2015 Paris Climate Conference
(COP21)
5.
Demand by farmers Constituency for
Inclusion of ‘Agriculture’ in the Paris
Agreement
6.
Outcomes of COP21
7.
The Paris Agreement implications for
Smallholders
8.
Conclusion
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1.
Introduction – Agriculture and Climate Change
• Agriculture, climate change, food security and poverty reduction are inextricably
linked.
• As the world population grows to a projected 9 billion by 2050, agricultural
production must also increase by an estimated 70 percent according to FAO.
• Climate volatility, more frequent extreme weather events and temperature changes
increasingly threaten the viability of agriculture and forestry sectors and rural
infrastructure throughout the world.
• Globally, agriculture directly accounts for 13.5 % of greenhouse gas emissions and
indirectly for another 17% due to deforestation and land-use change.
• The sector holds a large mitigation potential, mainly through reduced
deforestation, soil management and increased productivity.
• Agriculture is therefore part of the problem and part of the solution to
Climate Change.
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2.
No International Unity about Climate Change
• There is no international unity about Climate Change and its effects on human lives.
• Many scientists and politicians around the world think the figures about GHG
emissions, global warming and threat to future existence are not realistic and have
been exaggerated.
• A GREENPEACE Report – ‘‘Dealing in Doubt’’ (2013) provides information of
how the fossil fuel industry has waged a campaign of climate denial for more than
two decades.
• Must distinguish clearly between those scientists who have challenged the theories of
global warming in good faith and the efforts of the denier campaign to undermine
the credibility of the scientific establishment.
• The denier campaign has consistently sought to present its publications and claims in
the style of genuine science, tactics modelled after ‘Big Tobacco.’
• This climate denial effort is aimed at delaying action. The objective is to create
uncertainty and doubt, especially in the media and minds of non-expert policymakers.
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• In Malawi Climate Change is real and impacts on the lives of more than 90% of the
population which depends on agriculture, forestry and fishing for their livelihoods.
• Malawi is particularly vulnerable to Climate Change and variability because we have
rain-fed agriculture which drives the economy.
• Irrigation is practiced on less than 10% of the land.
• Observed changes in climate include a shift in the rainfall season, with later onset and
early cessation, as well as increases in the length of the dry season and reductions in
the length of the growing season.
• Expected increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and
storms will increase the hazards faced by not only farmers, foresters and fishermen but
the general population.
• In 2015/2016 season the country faced intensive flooding followed by drought which
affected more than 1.1 million people, displaced 336,000 and killed 104 people.
• This led to declaration of disaster for 15 Districts as up to 2.8million people are food
insecure.
• ITV News Video clip.
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3.
International Response to Climate Change
• The international political response to Climate Change began at the Rio Earth
Summit in 1992, where the ‘Rio Convention’ included the adoption of the UN
Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• This convention set out a framework for action aimed at stabilising atmospheric
concentrations of GHGs to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.” The UNFCCC which entered into force on 21 March 1994, now has
a near-universal membership of 195 parties.
• The main objective of the annual Conference of Parties (COP) is to review the
Convention’s implementation. The first COP took place in Berlin in 1995 and
significant meetings since then have included;
o COP3 where the Kyoto Protocol was adopted,
o COP11 where the Montreal Action Plan was produced,
o COP15 in Copenhagen where an agreement to succeed Kyoto Protocol not
realised,
o COP17 in Durban where the Green Climate Fund was created.
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4.
The 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21)
• In 2015 COP21, also known as the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, for the first
time in over 20 years of UN negotiations, the 195 countries met to achieve a legally
binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming
below 2°C.
• France played a leading international role in hosting this seminal conference, and
COP21 was one of the largest international conferences ever held in the country.
• The conference attracted close to 50,000 participants including 25,000 official
delegates from government, intergovernmental organisations, UN agencies, NGOs
and civil society.
• This was also the largest number of Heads of State and Government ever hosted
in the history of France: over 150 Heads of State and Government from around
the world (including Barack Obama from the U.S., Xi Jinping from China, Narendra
Modi from India and Vladimir Putin from Russia).
• 117 Ministers responsible for international climate negotiations attended the
High-Level Segment at the start of the second week.
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5.
Demand by Farmers Constituency for Inclusion of ‘Agriculture’
in the Paris Agreement
• At COP21 Farmers Constituency and other stakeholders wanted to ensure that
‘agriculture’ was part of the agreed text.
• These included; the World Farmers’ Organization (WFO), Southern Africa
Confederation of Agricultural Unions (SACAU), Pan African Farmers’ Organization
(PAFO), Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network
(FANRPAN) as well as NGOs, CSOs and other stakeholders in the Climate Smart
Agriculture Alliance, who were supporting, promoting and driving the campaign.
• Their take was that the risks posed by Climate Change threaten the ability of farmers to feed
a growing global population.
• Achieving food security is part of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which
requires physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food.
• The risks posed by a changing climate also threaten the development of the
economies of our rural areas.
• In many cases, those who have contributed the least to global warming are the ones set
to suffer the most from its harmful effects.
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6.
Outcomes of COP21
• To the disappointment of the Farmers Constituency ‘agriculture’ did not make it
into the final Paris Agreement.
• It only refers indirectly to agriculture. In the non-binding part of the Agreement
‘food security and production’ were mentioned in the COP21 Chair’s
summing-up and the terms ‘food security’ and ‘food production.’
• In the preamble, the Agreement “recognises the fundamental priority of
safeguarding food security and ending hunger, and the particular
vulnerabilities of food production systems to the adverse impacts of climate
change”
• And in Article 2.1b, the purpose of the Agreement, states an aim to
strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by
“increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and
foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in
a manner that does not threaten food production”
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The measures agreed include:
• To peak greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and achieve a balance
between sources and sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this
century.
• To keep global temperature increase "well below" 2°C and to pursue efforts to
limit it to 1.5°C (2.7° Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels by the end of the
21st century.
• To review progress every five years.
• US$100bn a year in climate finance for developing countries (to help island
and developing states mitigate the ill-effects of climate change) by 2020, with a
commitment to further finance in the future.
• The text of the Paris Agreement is available on
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf
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7.
The Paris Agreement implications for Smallholders
• According to Thomson Reuters Foundation, reactions on how the Pairs Agreement
relates to farmers there have varied from the negative, hopeful to the optimistic. Here are
some examples:
• The FAO welcomed the Paris Agreement, noting that for the first time ever, food security
features in a global climate change accord.
• Kanayo F. Nwanze, President of the International Fund for Agricultural
Development (IFAD), said ‘‘this was a good springboard for approaching top decision
makers in developing countries about protecting their farmers from climate change.
• "Climate finance needs to include agriculture as a key sector, and support countries to
implement the plans they have laid out," said CCAFS Director Bruce Campbell.
• Giza Gaspar Martins, Chair of the group of 48 Least Developed Countries at the
two-week talks, said the Paris deal would "move the world to a 1.5 degrees goal, while
aiming to leave no-one behind".
• "This deal offers a frayed lifeline to the world's poorest and most vulnerable people," said
Helen Szoke, Chief Executive of aid agency Oxfam Australia.
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• Edna Molewa, South Africa's Minister of Environmental Affairs, said the
accord was "not perfect", but represented a solid foundation and was "the best we
can get at this historic moment".
• "This is simply not good enough in giving the real certainty and predictability that
finance will continue to flow at scale, particularly for adaptation," said Tim Gore,
Head of Climate Change Policy with Oxfam International.
• "Developed countries politicised the issue of loss and damage in the Paris talks,
trying to limit options for poor countries to deal with climate threats," said Sven
Harmeling, Climate Change Advocacy Coordinator for CARE International.
• Mary Robinson, U.N. Special Envoy for Climate Change and former Irish
President, said "the means to achieve climate justice as a human right will have to
come in the coming years".
• ActionAid's Harjeet Singh told farmers "This deal has taken your right to demand
justice forever, you are now at the mercy of the same people who are actually
causing you damage. If they decide not to (co-operate), then you will have to fend
for yourself."
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• Malawi has just received approval for a grant programme of USD 12
million over 6 years from the Green Climate Fund through the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
• The programme is ‘‘Scaling Up the Use of Modernised Climate
Information and Early Warning Systems in Malawi’’ and is targeting
about 2 million beneficiaries.
• The Malawi government will co-finance USD2m and UNDP in Malawi will
add another USD 2 million with the objective of saving lives at risk from
climate-related disasters and enhance resilience of vulnerable populations
reliant on agricultural-based livelihoods, many of whom are women.
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8.
Conclusion
• Despite the pronouncements of doubters and naysayers, Climate Change is real
and affects not only the producers of our food by the general population of
the world.
• The ability of smallholder farmers in Least Developed Countries to
produce enough food that is safe and nutritious is being affected by
extreme weather events.
• The Paris Agreement, which takes over from the Kyoto Protocol, provides
hope for farmers to be assisted in adaptation and mitigation against the
effects of Climate Change.
• We should all do our part in our spheres of influence to ensure that the
signatories of the Paris Agreement and other stakeholders are providing enough
funding for a less fossil fuel green economy which is more sustainable.
• Climate Change should be the concern of all not just farmers.
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Remember, without farmers there will be no food, and
without food there will be no life.
Thank You!
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