Promoting Employment Intensive Growth in Sri Lanka Seminar on National Employment Policy October 2011 Prof. Sunil Chandrasiri Dean Faculty of Graduate Studies University of Colombo Promoting Employment Intensive Growth in Sri Lanka 1. Why employment intensive growth is important? 2. Macro level evidence 3. Priority Sectors 4. Policy implications Stages of Development Innovation Driven Business Sophistication Innovativeness Efficiency Driven Labour Market Efficiency Goods market efficiency Technological Readiness Factor Driven * Health & primary education Sri Lanka 52 out of 142 countries Sri Lanka - Stage of Development 2011/12 Overall rank 52 out of 142 countries Institutions Sri Lanka 6.0 Innovation Business sophistication 5.0 4.0 3.0 Infrastructure Macroeconomic stability 2.0 1.0 Market size 0.0 Technological readiness Health and primary education Higher education and training Financial market sophistication Goods market efficiency Labour market efficiency Factor Diven Employment Intensity of Growth 1996-2002 2002-2010 Primary sector 1.23 0.17 0.52 0.38 0.94 0.13 1.16 0.14 Secondary Tertiary sector All sectors Sub-sector experience- Elasticity Sub-sector 2002-2010 1. Agriculture -2004-09 0.57 2. Manufacturing 0.50 6. Construction 0.80 7. Wholesale and retail trade 0.35 8. Hotels and Restaurants 9. Transport and Communication 0.18 0.21 10. Banking, insurance and real estate 0.49 12. Private services 0.07 Growth of Real Value Added and Employment – 2002-2010 16 5 14 Emp growth (%) 12 10 8 3 6 6 7 4 2 4 2 1 8 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 GDP growth (%) 30 35 2. Manufacturing; 3. Construction: 5. Hotels and Restaurants 6. Transport, Storage and Communication; 7.Banking: 1. Agriculture; 4.Wholesale and Retail; 8.Private services 40 Priority Sectors- Employment Intensity Sub-sector 2002-2010 1. Tea 2.22 2. Rubber 1.06 6. Coconut 1.69 7. Textiles and Garments 0.44 8. Jewelry 9. Hotels and Restaurants 1.1 1.41 10. ICT 1.41 Note: Health & Gem sectors: not estimated No data Growth Implications of Priority Sectors Sector Growth of Exports % Employment Female Elasticity Employnt % 1. Tea 7.3 1.40 55 19.6 5.6 5.1 0.96 2.45 0.53 40 35 48 30.5 0.63 40 0.79 1.1 30 15 1.41 45 12.8 1.41 30 2. Rubber 6. Coconut 7. Textiles & Gmts 8. Food & Bevgs 9. Gem & Jewelry 10. ICT 11. Tourism Government Policy Support Sources: Key policy documents at national and Ministry level National Level 1. Promote Investment 2. Control Inflation 3. Promote employment 4. Fiscal and monetary policy 5. No mention about wage policy Sub-sector level 1. Productivity enhancement 2. Tax incentives 3. Skills development 4. Technology support 5. Export promotion 6. Value addition Government Policy Support contd 1. Sub-sector specific policy support system is comprehensive and action oriented 2. Both national and sub-sector specific policies do not cover wage policies, employee welfare, quality of employment, and industrial labour relations 3. Priority sectors have the capacity to promote job-rich growth Summary -Overall 1. Employment intensity in secondary sector is higher 2. Presence of medium and long-term development targets 3. Influence of institutional factors on growth of employment 4. Presence of low-productivity and low –pay policy Summary – Sector specific 1. Policy support for export oriented-growth in promoting employment 2. Emphasis on productivity , skills development and R & D orientation 3. Influence of institutional factors on growth of employment Recommendations – National level 1. Application of sub-sector approach to promote growth and employment should be continued 2. The wage levels and employee welfare should also be included in policy documents 3. High-productivity and high-wages policy needs to be promoted at national level 4. Export oriented growth promoting employment should be further strengthened Recommendations – Sub-sectoral level 1. Agriculture- Application of sub-sector approach to promote growth and employment should be continued 2. The wage levels and employee welfare should also be included in policy documents 3. High-productivity and high-wages policy needs to be promoted at national level 4. Export oriented growth promoting employment should be further strengthened Conclusion The small open economy of Sri Lanka is well poised to make a transition from factor driven to efficiency driven stage. Policy support for job-rich growth would promote Sri Lanka as one of the key investment centers in Asia.