SECOND THOUGHTS ON THE
M7.2 EARTHQUAKE THAT
STRUCK SW PAKISTAN
IN THIS CASE, REMOTENESS OF THE
EPICENTRAL AREA AND 83 KM (50 MI) DEPTH
REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE
1:30 AM; JANUARY 19, 2011
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
LOCATION MAP
Ground shaking from this
earthquake, which was centered in
Baluchistan province, the country's
most sparsely populated area, was
felt in India and the United Emirates
(USGS).
THIS QUAKE, UNLIKE THE
ONE IN 2005, WAS NOT A
DISASTER
• The M7.6 quake on Oct. 8, 2005,
killed about 80,000 people in
northwestern Pakistan and
Kashmir and left more than
3 million homeless.
THE SEVERITY OF THE
2005 KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER WAS RELATED TO
ITS MAGNITUDE, SHALLOW
DEPTH, SOIL AMPLIFICATION,
AND POOR CONSTRUCTION
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
FOR PAKISTAN
APPLYING KNOWLEDGE THAT
CAN BENEFIT MILLIONS
DISASTER RISKS FACED BY PAKISTAN
EARTHQUAKES
GOAL: REDUCE DISASTER
RISK
DEVELOP POLICIES FOR
ACTIONS HAVING HIGH
BENEFIT/COST FOR
PAKISTAN
CYCLONES
FLOODS
LANDSLIDES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
EXAMPLE:
KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE
OCTOBER 8, 2005
KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE
8:50 AM OCTOBER 8, 2005
M7.6
10 KM (6 MI) DEPTH
79,000 DEAD IN PAKISTAN;
1,400 IN INDIA
COLLAPSED SCHOOLS AND
HOSPITALS
3 MILLION HOMELESS
OCCURRENCE
• The earthquake occurred in the
Main Boundary Thrust Zone
(MBTZ), which runs along the
Himalayan Arc for about 2,500 km.
• The epicenter was near
Muzaffarabad, the capital of
Pakistani administered Kashmir.
OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE
• Experts believe that the October 8th
earthquake released only about 10
percent of the accumulated strain
energy.
COLLISION OF INDO-AUSTRALIAN
AND EURASIAN PLATES
OCTOBER 8, 2005 PAKISTAN
EARTHQUAKE
ISLAMABAD
ISLAMABAD
ISLAMABAD
ISLAMABAD
ISLAMAAD
ISLAMABAD
KASHMIR
AFGHANISTAN
LAHORE
BALAKOT
BALAKOT
BALAKOT
MUZARAFFABAD
MUZAFFARABAD
MUZAFFARABAD (LANDSLIDE)
MUZAFFARABAD FOOD LINE
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE
RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
PAKISTAN
COMMUNITIES
RISK MANAGEMENT
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•EDUCATIONAL SURGE
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
GOAL: DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
• ALL SECTORS OF
THE COMMUNITY
NEED TO HAVE
EQUITY IN
DESIGNING A MIX OF
APPLICATIONS THAT
WILL LEAD TO
EARTHQUAKE
RESILIENCE.
LONG-TERM NEEDS OF PAKISTAN
• NEED: 2 TO 3 MILLION NEW
DWELLINGS THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE
RESILIENT.
• NEED: NEW SCHOOLS THAT ARE
EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.
• NEED: NEW HOSPITALS THAT ARE
EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.
• NEED: NEW INFRASTRUCTURE THAT
IS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.
STEPS TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE
RESILIENCE
• CONTINUOUS PUBLIC
AWARENESS PROGRAMS
• EDUCATIONAL SURGES
AND TRAINING FOR
PROFESSIONALS
• EXPANDED SEISMIC AND
BUILDING MONITORING
SYSTEMS
• EXPANDED
COMMUNICATION
SYSTEMS
• MODERN BUILDING
CODES FOR NEW
BUILDINGS
• MODERN STANDARDS
FOR NEW
INFRASTRUCTURE
• STRENGTHENING AND
RETROFIT FOR EXISTING
STRUCTURES
• EXPANDED HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS
STARTING POINTS
• IN-COUNTRY BASIC • GROUND SHAKING
AND APPLIED
MAPS
RESEARCH
• BUILDING CODES
• IMPLEMENTATION
• EDUCATIONAL
OF LESSONS FROM
SURGES AND
THE OCTOBER 8,
TRAINING FOR
2005 DISASTER
COMMUNITY
PROFESSIONALS
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE:
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
• CONSTRUCTION WAS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ON THE FLOODPLAIN DEPOSITS OF THE NEEHLAN,
JAHLUM, AND KUNHAR RIVERS.
• BUILDINGS SITED ON SAND AND
LOOSE GRAVEL DEPOSITS WERE
SEVERELY DAMAGED;
• WHEREAS, BUILDINGS SITED ON
ROCK WERE NOT SEVERELY
DAMAGED.
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
GOALS
• PREVENTION
(CONTROL WHAT
HAPPENS)
• PROTECTION
(BUILD TO
WITHSTAND)
• LAND-USE
CONTROL
(AVOIDANCE)
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
GOALS
• SITE MODIFICATION
• REAL-TIME
MONITORING AND
WARNING SYSTEMS
• EARTHQUAKE
SCENARIOS
• COMMUNITY
RESPONSE PLANS
• COMMUNITY
RECOVERY PLANS
PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION CAN
BE ACCELERATED
ADD NEW KNOWLEDGE TO EXISTING BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
IMPROVE
EDUCATION
CLARIFY
GOALS
ELEMINATE
BARRIERS
ADOPT
STRATEGIES
THAT WORK
VISUALIZE
BENEFITS
ALIGN
THINKING &
ACTION
AN EDUCATIONAL SURGE
RELEVANT
INCREASES PUBLIC
AWARENESS
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A
SUCCESSFUL SURGE
INCREASES UNDERSTANDING
ENABLES POLICY ADOPTION
INCREASES EQUITY
THE END-GAME OF AN
EDUCATIONAL SURGE
PERIOD OF
INTEGRATION
WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY
PERIOD OF
IMPLEMENTA
TION
HEAR
UNDERSTAND
IDENTIFY
PERSONALIZE
APPLICATIONS
APPLICATIONS THAT HAVE
A HIGH BENEFIT TO COST
RATIO FOR PAKISTAN
MANY APPLICATIONS CAN BE
IMPLEMENTED WITH LITTLE OR NO
EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE
BENEFIT/COST
BUILDING CODE WITH
MODERN SEISMIC
DESIGN PROVISIONS
PREVENTS COLLAPSE
AND REDUCES LOSS
OF LIFE AND DAMAGE
1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000
BENEFIT/COST
STANDARDS FOR
LIFELINE SYSTEMS
PROTECTS
COMMUNITY
INFRASTRUCTURE
1 < BENEFIT/COST <
1,000
BENEFIT/COST
NON-STRUCTURAL
MITIGATION
PROTECTS
CONTENTS AND
EQUIPMENT
1 < BENEFIT/COST <
1,000
BENEFIT/COST
STRENGTHEN
COLLAPSE HAZARD
BUILDINGS
PREVENT COLLAPSE
AND LOSS OF LIFE
1 < BENEFIT/COST <
1,000
BENEFIT/COST
RISK ZONATION
IDENTIFIES LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO
LOSS OF LIFE
1 < BENEFIT/COST <
1,000
BENEFIT/COST
EDUCATION SURGE
AND TRAINING FOR
PROFESSIONALS
EXPANDS
PROFESSIONAL AND
POLITICAL CAPACITY
1 < BENEFIT/COST <
1,000
BENEFIT/COST
DISASTER
SCENARIONS
FACILITATES
PREPARATION FOR
SEARCH AND RESCUE
AND HEALTH CARE
1< BENEFIT/COST <
1,000