Water Agriculture & Sustainability
View from the Sun Corridor Mega-Region
Jim Holway, Ph.D., AICP
Director, Joint Venture
Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Shaping the Future of the West
Water and …..
D
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F
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• Growth
• Energy
• Climate
• Agriculture…. Is this the source ?
• Environment ….. Is anything left ?
Southwest States - Growth
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
Population
AZ
CO
6,000,000
UT
NM
NV
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand
4,000,000
2100 = 3.6 million acre-feet
15.2 million people
2075 = 3.1 million acre-feet
12.9 million people
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2045 = 2.4 million acre-feet
10.2 million people
2030 = 2.0 million af
8.5 million people
Uncertain
Possibly Available
Likely Available
2,000,000
1,500,000
Currently Secured
Acre-Feet
1,000,000
500,000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Average Gallons Needed per one MWhr ArizonaBased Facilities (2002-2006)
M.J. Pasqualetti, School of
Geographical Sciences, ASU
Significant Cultural Events
Arizona Water Use - 2006
W
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U
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T
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California Water Use - 2000
Municipal
17%
Municipal
20%
Industrial
1%
Industrial
6%
Agriculture
74%
Agriculture
82%
Colorado Water Use - 2006
Nevada Water Use - 2000
Other Municipal
5%
7%
W
a
t
e
r
Ind/Comm
2%
Municipal
23%
Industrial
4%
Agriculture
73%
Agriculture
86%
Historic & Projected Demands – Phoenix AMA
3,000,000
Total
2,500,000
Demand (af)
2,000,000
1,500,000
Agriculture
1,000,000
Municipal
500,000
Industrial
Indian
1973
1978
1983
1985
1990
1995
1998
Year
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Pinal County Listening Session
• Proximity to urban centers could be an opportunity
• Concerns
–
–
–
–
–
urbanization / farmland preservation
Impact of development on water supplies
Input prices (energy, fertilizers)
Labor management with new crops
Do the kids want to farm?
• Questions for future
–
–
–
–
Maintaining feed supplies for dairies
How to manage transition from field to specialty crops
Operating on leased (as opposed to owned) land
Labor-saving technology
Envisioning Sustainable MegaRegionAgriculture
–
Define a role for agriculture in “MegaRegion
–
Comprehensive land use planning should consider
Ag preservation & suitability
–
Agriculture as land & water (drought) buffer
–
Mechanisms
•
•
•
•
Right to Farm protections
Substitution of alternative Ag lands
TDRs & easements
Tax policy - property & inheritance
Source: EDAW
Thank You
I look forward to learning from your efforts !
Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Shaping the Future of the West
City of Phoenix – Water Deliveries by Use
Sector & Type of Use
RESIDENTIAL
Percent of
Total
Percent of
Sector
66
Landscape
51
Pools
14
Indoors
35
NON-RESIDENTIAL
34
Landscape
61
Cooling
8
Other (e.g. process)
31
City of Phoenix – Water Deliveries by Use
Sector & Type of Use
RESIDENTIAL
Percent of
Total
Percent of
Sector
66
Landscape
51
Pools
14
Indoors
35
NON-RESIDENTIAL
34
Landscape
61
Cooling
8
Other (e.g. process)
31
SUSTAINABILITY
S = f( P * R * L * T * G + A)
(state variables & change trajectories)
– P: Population
– R: Resource Base (including Climate)
– L: Lifestyle (Consumption Patterns)
– T: Technology for Managing Resources
– G: Governance
– A: Adaptation (Resilience)
Thresholds & Tipping Points
• Reaching / Exceeding Limits?
– reallocations & new supplies, optimizing system
– Energy required - costs
• Future - differ from past?
– climate … economy … federal policy
• Public / Market Choices – water for what?
– growth … lifestyle … ecosystems … industry
• Major Infrastructure Investments
• Conjunctive Management & Regional Coordination
• Democratize Water Management
Principles for Managing Urban Water
Environments
1. Everything is Connected
ecosystem level – watersheds – adaptive mgmt
2. People are part of the Ecosystem
public vision – aesthetic & ecological functions
3. Institutions Mediate & Shape Relationships
scale – scope – adaptable authorities
4. Change is Inevitable
understand drivers - anticipate & manage
5. Water Mgmt Requires Interdisciplinary Approach
Water Environment of Cites. Springer 2009
Water, Sustainability & Policy
A Few Big Questions
• How can we build resiliency & management capacity into
legal frameworks & institutions
• Do we have the right balance between private rights and
public welfare
• What is the right mix of market & non-market
mechanisms
• How to best incorporate the environment,
ecosystem health and 3rd party impacts
• Do we need more democracy,
more collaboration …
… or less
0.01
Harto, Meyers & Williams: School of Sustainability, ASU
microbial biodiesel
- Open
microbial biodiesel
- Closed
Corn Ethanol Irrigated
Corn Ethanol
National Average
Soy Biodiesel Irrigated
Soy National
Average
Switchgrass Irrigated
Switchgrass - Not
Irrigated
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Coal + CS
Petroleum Based
Unleaded
Gallons H2O/VMT
Life Cycle Water Use per Vehicle Mile
1000
100
10
1
0.1