THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION
DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that
investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make
money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any
responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.
 Market Recap
 Earnings
 High Frequency Trading
 Gold
 Next Emerging Market

Peter Schiff  April 28th – W10 – 6:30-7:30PM

Bar Crawl  Friday, May 3rd

CEO and founder of Euro pacific capital, a brokerage firm
in Connecticut: http://www.europac.net/
Successfully predicted 2000 tech bubble
and 2008 housing crisis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YTY5TWtmU
Turbulent Markets log
worst week of 2013
Nasdaq

GE earnings top sales, but Europe weights on sales

McDonald's profit rises, falls short estimates

Google earnings beat, but revenue misses

IBM earnings and revenue fall short

Pepsi tops earnings estimates, raises full year forecast

American express earnings beat, revenue misses

Ebay earnings beat by a penny, outlook falls short

Bank of America earnings fall short of expectations

Yahoo earnings beat, but revenue falls short

Intel earnings miss by a penny, revenue hits target

Microsoft tops earnings expectations

As of Friday, a fifth of the S&P 500 had
reported, and two-thirds had better-thanexpected earnings.

But an unusually high amount—57 percent—
missed their top-line revenue estimates,
according to Thomson Reuters.

Earnings of $2.45 a share and beat estimates of $2.14


Earnings growth of 24.4%
Revenue growth of 13.4%

During the first quarter, Chipotle launched 48 new units. As of Mar 30,
2013, the company operated 1,458 restaurants.

Menu prices expanded 70 basis points (bps) during the year while
average check grew 30 bps.

CMG repurchased 164,000 shares worth 51 mil. And announced an
additional $100 million next quarter.


Total operating margin increased 50 bps to 16.5%
Increased Cash $23 million

Stock up 11.5% after earnings release!
16.35%
4/20/13
(10/22/12)
11.54%
Apple may have lost nearly half of its value since its
peak in September, but it's still the talk of the town.
Only this time, it's all about how low can it go?
Apple, which was once the world's most valuable
company, is trading at nine times trailing earnings.
Stock was down 8.43% last week alone
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thurs
Fri
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jj8q6Mh5BU
Vote Yuzhu Chen for Tippie Senate

Examples:
 House (assuming proper inflation)
 Equities (IRA, 401k, retirement plans)
 Bonds

First, what’s the difference between trading
and investing?

Investing: Buying and holding securities to
profit from their long term appreciation

Trading: Frequent buying and selling of
securities to generate returns greater than
traditional investing

What does systematic mean?
 Done or acting according to a fixed plan or
system; methodical

Utilizes algorithms and parameters as signals
for trading (buy and sell signals)
 How much? When to? How to? Which to?

Observe “anomalies” and create
algorithm/parameters to exploit the anomaly

Typically use computers due to the highly
technical nature of systematic trading
 Removes Human Error
Buy Signals
Blue  Green
UP White Arrow
Sell Signals
Purple  Red
DOWN White Arrow

Systematic Trading provides a framework to
easily test profitability based on historical
prices

Retrieving price quotes and running
algorithm/parameters to determine
profitability using statistical analysis

Past performance doesn’t guarantee future
performance

Affects liquidity and price fluctuations

Regulation as a result

Will become increasingly important

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0jENLaUfk

Friday was a 4.88 SD move for gold

Statistically, one 5 SD move is seen every
4,776 years!!!!!!!!

Shouldn’t expect to see gold fluctuate
similarly until the year 6789

GLD – 2 day price change = 16.65

This can be converted to just over 8 SD
“I wanted to share what this comes to, but the
table I use only goes up to seven SD. Let’s just
say the sun ix expected to burn our first.”
-Russel Rhoads, CFA of CBOE Option Inst.

The selloff seen in gold is dramatic and
substantial

However, we invest in an ever changing
financial system that continuously evolves

Example: statistical analysis to storms shows
similar frequent “outliers”
Gold & Commodity Selloff

Testing bearish territories this week

Fundamental value of gold

No one can agree what its value should be

What does the gold/commodity selloff show?

Bullish or bearish on gold?

What unfolding global issues will impact
gold/commodities in the near future?

Arguably, founding father
of emerging markets
investing

Africa, Asia, Latin America,
and other less developed
areas

“When I started talking
about emerging markets 30
years ago, people knew it
made sense but they didn’t
quite believe it.”

The US is at beginning of industrial revitalization


10 years ago, 9/10 companies factoriesChina
Now, more like 3/10  China
 And 5/10 might  US

We are becoming more energy independent and
on track to be net exporter

Major advancements in shale gas, 3-D printing,
and robotics