15. Leadership Derailment
SLP(E) Course
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Derailment
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Agenda
• Complexity.
• Ambiguity.
• Derailment research.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Complexity & Ambiguity
• As you rise in leadership level the nature
of the demand changes.
• Two aspects increase:
– Complexity.
– Ambiguity.
• Paradox of leadership:
‘Leader shows way, but may not be sure
of the route’.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Complexity
‘Some problems are so complex that you
have to be highly intelligent and well
informed just to be undecided about them.’
Laurence J. Peter
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Uncertainty
• Near certainty &
agreement =
management +
navigation.
• Little certainty &
agreement =
leadership +
exploring.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Arc of Uncertainty
Operational
Tactical
Certain?
Strategic
Uncertain
‘In these matters the only certainty is that nothing is certain’.
Pliny the Elder | 23 AD - 79 AD
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Complexity (Chaos) Theory
‘The flapping of a single butterfly's wing today
produces a tiny change in the state of the
atmosphere. […] So, in a month's time, a tornado
that would have devastated the Indonesian coast
doesn't happen. […]’
Stewart | 1989 | Does God Play Dice?
The New Mathematics of Chaos.
Complexity theory: the behavour over time of
certain kinds of complex systems.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Complexity Theory | Dynamic
Systems
Zone 3
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 1 – Stable Zone
When disturbed returns
to original state.
Zone 2 – Zone of Instability
When disturbed moves
away from original state.
Zone 3 - A Phase Transition
or the Edge of Chaos
Unpredictable behaviour
within a bounded predictability.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Complexity Theory & Leadership
• Analysis loses its primacy.
• Contingency (cause & effect) loses its
meaning.
• Long-term planning becomes impossible
• Visions become illusions
• Consensus & strong cultures become
dangerous.
• Statistical relationships become dubious.
Stacey | 1993 | Strategic Management & Organisational Dynamics.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Complexity Theory & Leadership
• Organisations not only adapt to environment,
but help to create them.
• Organisational success can come from
contradiction as well as consistency.
• That success may stem from being part of a
self-reinforcing cycle, rather than from an
explicit ‘vision’.
• That revolutionary as well as incremental
changes may lie on the route to
organisational success.
Rosenhead & Mingers | 2001 | Rational Analysis For a Problematic World Revisited
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Ambiguity
• Rising seniority increases ambiguity:
– many different conclusions & solutions may be
drawn from the ‘facts’ presented.
• Increasing uncertainty | longer time horizons
| competing demands and stakeholders:
– what happens to your decision making?
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Complexity
Uncertainty
Ambiguity
Risk
• Organisational risk ‘appetite’: Californian vs Stalinist.
• Organisational ‘behaviour’ toward risk:
- Attitude toward failure.
- Performance assessment.
• Impact on decision-making & innovation.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Derailment
Why is it that many (apparently very
able) individuals derail?
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
The Peter Principle
‘In a hierarchy every employee tends to
rise to his level of incompetence’
Peter & Hull | 1969 | The Peter Principle
• Solutions:
– Up and Out.
– Demonstrate skills to succeed at next level.
– Parallel career paths for technical staff.
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
Derailment
1. An insensitive, abrasive, or bullying style.
2. Aloofness or arrogance.
3. Betrayal of personal trust.
4. Self-centred ambition.
5. Failure to constructively face an obvious problem.
6. Micro-management.
7. Inability to select good subordinates.
8. Inability to take a long-term perspective.
9. Inability to adapt to a boss with a different style.
10.Overdependence on a mentor.
McCall, Lombardo | 1983 | Off the track: Why and how successful executives get derailed
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy
14. Leadership &
Personality
SLP(E) Course
Centre for Defence Leadership & Management | College of Management & Technology | UK Defence Academy