Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Sistem Penunjang Keputusan
(Decision Support System)
Penerapan DSS di Industri Asuransi
source:www.gumtree.com.au
http://www.marketresearchreports.com/insurance
Budi Hermana
Program Pascasarjana – Universitas Gunadarma
Edisi Oktober 2012
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Peta Konsep
History&Evolution
DSS features
Component of DSS
Database (or knowledge base)
User interface
Model
(The decision context and user criteria)
Type of Problem
Problem Structure
Organizational
Decision&Management
decision
Decision Making
making
Process
Decision Techniques
DSS
Interactive
computer
systems
Computer Based IS
User Requirement
ICT Impact
ICT Trend&Growth
ICT & Organization
Communication-driven DSS
Model-driven DSS
Document-driven DSS
Knowledge-driven DSS
Data-driven DSS
Type pf DSS
Insurance Company/Industry
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Problems are problems because
they have no easy
answers
Problem
is the difference between
what is, and what might or should be
Problems are problems only when
we are aware of them
What is The Problem ?
perceived
between the existing
Problems andAvalues
changegap
over
time. What state
was a and
goodasolution
desired state, or a deviation
once doesn't from
work any
more standard, or status quo
a norm,
: http://www.businessdictionary.com
For some, problems are
opportunities in disguise.What
For
others, problems cause worry
are the
relevant factors??
Solutions often become problems
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
4 Types of Problem (Peter F. Drucker)
1. Truly Generic (individual occurrence is a symptom;
Two Different Kinds of Compromises)
2. Generic, but Unique for the individual institution
3. Truly exceptional, truly unique
4. Early manifestation of a new generic problem
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Problem Type #1 – Truly generic
Drucker writes:
“There is first the truly generic, of which the individual occurrence is only a symptom. Most of
the problems that come up in the course of the executive’s work are of this nature. Inventory
decisions in a business, for instance, are not “decisions.” They are adaptations. The problem is
generic.”
Latihan/Diskusi
Catastrophic Risk
√
√
√
√
Moral Hazzard
Perhitungan premi
Administrasi Polis
Insurable Interest
Asset Default Risk
Penerapan IFRS di Industri Asuransi
Perancangan Produk Baru
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Problem Type #2 – Generic, but Unique for the individual institution
Drucker writes:
“Then there is the problem that, while a unique event for the individual institution, is actually
generic. The company that receives an offer to merge from another, larger one will never receive
such an offer again if it accepts. This is a nonrecurrent situation as far as the individual
company, its board of directors, and its management are concerned. But it is, of course, a
generic situation that occurs all the time.”
Latihan/Diskusi
Catastrophic Risk
Moral Hazzard
Perhitungan premi
Administrasi Polis
Insurable Interest
√
Asset Default Risk
Penerapan IFRS di Industri Asuransi
√
Perancangan Produk Baru
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Problem Type #3 – Truly exceptional, truly unique
Drucker writes:
“Next there is the truly exceptional, the truly unique event. The power failure that plunged into
darkness the whole of northeastern North America from St. Lawrence River to Washington D.C.,
in November 1965, was according to the first explanations, a truly exceptional situation.”
Latihan/Diskusi
√
Catastrophic Risk
Moral Hazzard
Perhitungan premi
Administrasi Polis
Insurable Interest
Asset Default Risk
Penerapan IFRS di Industri Asuransi
Perancangan Produk Baru
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Problem Type #4 – Early manifestation of a new generic problem
Drucker writes:
“Truly unique events are rare, however. Whenever one appears, one has to ask, Is this a true
exception or only the first manifestation of a new genus? And this, the early manifestation of a
new generic problem, is the fourth and last category of events with which the decision process
deals.”
Latihan/Diskusi
Catastrophic Risk
Moral Hazzard
Perhitungan premi
Administrasi Polis
Insurable Interest
Asset Default Risk
√
Penerapan IFRS di Industri Asuransi
Perancangan Produk Baru
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Generic or Exception?
Drucker writes:
“The first questions the effective decision-maker asks are: Is
this a generic
situation or an exception?
Is this something that underlies a great many
occurrences? Or is the occurrence a unique event that needs to be dealt with as
such? The generic always has to be answered through a rule, a principle.”
All Events But the Truly Unique Require a Generic Solution
Drucker writes:
“All
events but the truly unique require a generic
solution.
They require a rule, a policy, a principle. Once the right principle has been
developed, all manifestations of the same generic situation can be handled
pragmatically, that is, by adaption of the rule to the concrete circumstances of the
Truly unique events, however, must be treated
individually. One cannot develop rules for the exceptional. ”
case.
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Beware!
Kadang bukan masalahnya, tapi pola
pikir, pola sikap atau persepsi orang
yang lebih kompleks
di dalam Joanne de Kruijf (2007)
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
http://www.ereleases.com/prfuel/5-problems-solved-by-savvy-pr/
Why is it important to
determine the root cause of a
problem before trying to find a
solution?
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Sumber: http://www.thinkreliability.com/Root-Cause-Analysis-CM-Basics.aspx
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Sumber:www4.uwm.edu/cuts/ce790/problem.pdf
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Symptom Approach vs Root Cause
Symptom Approach
Root Cause
“Errors are often a result of worker
carelessness.”
“Errors are the result of defects in the
system. People are only part of the
process.”
“We need to train and motivate
workers to be more careful.”
“We need to find out why this is
happening, and implement mistakeproofs
so it won’t happen again.”
Cause Map
http://www.thinkreliability.com/Root-Cause-Analysis-CM-Basics.aspx
Sumber: www.au.af.mil/AU/AWC/AWCGATE/nasa/root_cause_analysis.pdf
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Tools Used in Root Cause Analysis
Sumber: www.au.af.mil/AU/AWC/AWCGATE/nasa/root_cause_analysis.pdf
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Latihan/Diskusi
Perusahaan Asuransi
belum siap
menerapkan IFRS
Sumber: www.au.af.mil/AU/AWC/AWCGATE/nasa/root_cause_analysis.pdf
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
Type of Problem
Di dalam Joanne de Kruijf (2007)
DSS Model
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Structured vs Unstructured Proble
di dalam Joanne de Kruijf (2007)
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
http://www.dancarey.org/business-management-responsibilities-problem-solving/
Most managerial activities such as
problem solving, strategic planning, and
resource allocation, involve one or more
components of what we will now define as the
decision-making process
(Ernest Forman, George Washington University's School of Business)
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Type of Problem vs Management Level
Sumber: Gorry and Scott Morton
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Latihan/Diskusi
Operational
Control
Structured
Semi-structured
Unstructured
Management
Control
Strategic
Planning
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Rational Approach
source: http://www.rio.edu/
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
source: http://www.rio.edu/
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Problem Solving
Sumber: Gurpreet Singh
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Checking the results of a decision against
its expectations shows executives what
their strengths are, where they need to
improve, and where they lack
knowledge or information
(Peter F. Drucker)
Sumber: Gurpreet Singh
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Information Requirements by Decicion Category
Sumber: G. Anthony Gory and Michael S. Scott Morton
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
The Decision-Making Process [2]
STEP
11
STEP
STEP
STEP
STEP111
Define
the
Define
the problem
problem
Define
Define
the
problem
Define the
theproblem
problem
STEP
22
STEP
STEP
STEP
STEP222 the
Determine
Determine
the
Determine
the
Determine
Determinethe
the
requirements
that
the
requirements
that
the
requirements
that
requirements
that
the
requirements
thatthe
the
solution
to
the
solution
to
the
solution
to
the
solution
to
the
solution
to
the
problem
must
problem
mustmeet
meet
problem
problem
must
meet
problemmust
mustmeet
meet
STEP
333
STEP
STEP
STEP
33
STEP
Establish
goals
that
Establish
goals
that
Establish
goals
that
Establish
goals
that
Establish
goals
that
solving
the
problem
solving
the
problem
solving
the
problem
solving
the
problem
solving
the
problem
should
accomplish
should
accomplish
should
should
accomplish
shouldaccomplish
accomplish
STEP
44
STEP
STEP
STEP 44
Identify
alternatives
Identify
alternatives
Identify
Identify alternatives
alternatives
that
will
solve
the
that
will
solve
the
that
will
that will solve
solve the
the
problem
problem
problem
problem
STEP
STEP
STEP555
Develop
Develop
valuation
Developvaluation
valuation
criteria
based
criteria
based
on
the
criteria basedon
onthe
the
goals
goals
goals
STEP
STEP 66
Select
Selectaa decisiondecisionmaking
makingTool
Tool
STEP
STEP 77
Apply
Applythe
thetool
toolto
to
select
selectaa
preferred
preferredalternative
alternative
STEP 8
Check the answer
to make sure it
solves the problem
(Adapted from Baker et al, 2001)
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
The Decision-Making Process [2]
Source: University of Connecticut, users.business.uconn.edu/whuang/opim3103/ppt12.ppt
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
The Decision-Making Process [3]
Source: University of Connecticut, users.business.uconn.edu/whuang/opim3103/ppt12.ppt
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Theories of decision-making
applied to the health insurance context
Sumber: PIA SCHNEIDER. 2004. Why should the poor insure? Theories of decision-making in
the context of health insurance. Health Policy and Planning 19(6) 19(6): 349–355 © Oxford University Press, 2004
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Sumber: Gurpreet Singh
Decision Support System
Mind Map
interactive
computer-based
systems which
help decisionmakers utilize
data bases and
models to solve
ill-structured
problems
a computer based
system to aid
decision making
Awal 70-an
Akhir 70-an
Type of Problem
using suitable
and available
technology to
improve
effectiveness of
managerial and
professional
activities
Awal 80-an
Decision Theory
a new challenge
towards the
design of
intelligent
workstations
Akhir 80-an
DSS Model
Case Study
data warehousing
and on-line
analytical
processing (OLAP)
90-an
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Interactive
Flexible
Discovery-Oriented
Characteristics
of a
DSS System
Accessible
Deborah Baker
Texas Christian University
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
The Influence of Management Level
on Information Source
Strategic planning level
Environmental
Management control level
Operational control level
Internal
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
The Influence of Management Level
on Information Form
Strategic planning level
Summary
Management control level
Operational control level
Detail
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Managers Can Be Found on All
Levels and in All Functional
Areas of the Firm
Strategic planning level
Management Control Level
Operational Control
Level
Finance
Function
Human
Resources
Function
Information
Services
Function
Manufacturing
Function
Marketing
Function
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
What Managers do -Fayol’s Functions
Strategic
Management
Operational
Planning Level
Control Level
Control Level
Plan
Direct
Organize
Control
Plan
Control
Staff
Organize
Direct
Staff
Control
Direct
Staff
Organize
Plan
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Problem Solving Information
Comes in Many Forms
Internal Sources
External Sources
Business Meals
Tours
Voice Mail
Telephone
Unscheduled Meetings
Oral Media
Scheduled Meetings
Periodicals
Electronic mail
Letters & Memos
Noncomputer reports
Computer Reports
Written Media
Problem Solving
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
Computer-based
Information System
An information system that is
based on computer hardware and
software technology for processing
and disseminating information.
DSS Model
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Traditional Communication Chain
Database
Administrator
User
Systems
Analyst
Programmer
Operator
Computer
Network
Specialist
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
IS and EUC
The End-User Computing
Communication Chain
Information
Specialists
Support
Communication
User
Computer
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
The CBIS Model
Computer-based
Information System
(CBIS)
Accounting
Information System
Problem
Decisions
Information
Management
Information System
Decision Support
Systems
Problem
Solution
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E
Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell
The Virtual
Office
Knowledge-based
Systems
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Decision Support Content of Different Types
of Information Systems
Decision Support Systems
Executive Information Systems
Expert Systems
Information Reporting Systems
Workgroup Information Systems
Personal Information Systems
Office Information Systems
Transaction Processing Systems
100%
0%
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Differences in System Characteristics
Dimensions
TPS
Type of users Clerical and
supervisory
Focus
MIS
Middle
Management
Data
Information
transactions
Applications Payroll, sales Sales
data, inventory forecasting,
Production
control,
DSS
All levels
including top
mgmt. and
professionals.
Decision,
flexibility
Strategic
planning,
integrated
problems
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Differences in System Characteristics
TPS
Dimensions
MIS
DSS
Ease of use
Low
Moderate
High
Processing
Interest
Expediency
Efficiency
Effectiveness
Reason for
Cost saving,
Reporting basic
development customer service information
Improved decision
making
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Information Characteristics for
Different Types of Decisions
Characteristics
Operational Managerial Strategic
High
Low
Accuracy
Aggregate
Level of detail Detailed
Future
Time horizon Present
Frequent
Infrequent
Use
Internal
External
Source
Narrow
Wide
Scope
Quantitative
Qualitative
Nature
Current
Current/old
Age
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Theory applications and contributing disciplines of decision support system
Sean B. Eom. Southeast Missouri State University
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Decision Support System in Healthcare Industry.
(Rajalakshmi, 2011)
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Stocks Investment Decision Maker
Model:
Statistical Model
Decision Trees
Decision
Tree
Analytical Hierarchy Process
Neural Networks
Esteban Ramirez (2009)
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
A Decision Support System to Compare the
Transportation Modes in Logistics
Analytical
Hierarchy
Process
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Decision Tree
for Reasoning for Hazard Insurance Pricing
Lianfa Li (2005)
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Debmallya Chatterjee et. al.
International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology
Vol. 2(7), 2010
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Hsin-Yuan Chang and Shang-Yu Chen (2011).
Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution
(AHP-TOPSIS) model to evaluate individual investment
performance of retirement planning policy
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Decision analysis for cost benefit
By Dr. Jürgen Becher, 8th Global Conference of Actuaries
March, 2006
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
The Analytical Hierarchy Process
by Thomas Saaty
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Step 1
Price
MPG
Interior
Body
Radio
Engine
Car A
Car B
13100
18
Deluxe
4-Door Mid-size
AM/FM, tape
6-cylinder
11200
23
Above Average
2-Door Sport
AM/FM
4-cylinder turbo
Car C
9500
29
Standard
2-door compact
AM
4-cylinder
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Step 2
Select The Best Car
Price
MPG
Comfort
Style
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Step 3
Establish Priorities
1. The priorities of the four criteria in terms of the
overall goal.
2. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the
purchase-price criterion.
3. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the
MPG criterion.
4. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the
comfort criterion.
5. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the
style criterion.
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Step 4
Pairwise Comparison Scale
Verbal Judgement of Preference
Extremely Preferred
Very strong to extremely
Very strongly preferred
Strongly to very strongly
Strongly preferred
Moderately to strongly
Moderately preferred
Equally to moderately
Equally preferred
Numerical Rating
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Step 5
Pairwise comparison matrix
showing preferences for the three
cars in terms of comfort
Comport
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
CAR A
1
2
8
CAR B
0,5
1
6
CAR C
0.125
0.166666667
1
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Step 6
Synthesizing Judgments
Comport
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
CAR A
1
2
8
CAR B
0,5
1
6
CAR C
0.125
0.166666667
1
1,625
3,166666667
15
Sum the columns in the pairwise comparison
matrix
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Step 7
Comport
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
CAR A
0.615384615
0.631578947
0.533333
CAR B
0.307692308
0.315789474
0.4
CAR C
0.076923077
0.052631579
0.066667
1
1
1
Divide elements by the
column totals
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Step 8
Comport
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
CAR A
0.615384615
0.631578947
0.533333
0.593432
CAR B
0.307692308
0.315789474
0.4
0.341161
CAR C
0.076923077
0.052631579
0.066667
0.065407
The priority vector for the cars
with respect to comfort.
Car A 0.593
Car B 0.341
Car C 0.065
Sum the rows
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Step 9
Price
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Other Pairwise Comparisons
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
Priority Vector
CAR A
1
0.33333333
0.25
0.123
CAR B
3
1
0.5
0.32
CAR C
4
2
1
0.557
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
Priority Vector
CAR A
1
0.25
0.166667
0.087
CAR B
4
1
0.333333
0.274
CAR C
6
3
1
0.639
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
Priority Vector
CAR A
1
0.33333333
4
0.265
CAR B
3
1
7
0.655
CAR C
0.25
0.142857143
1
0.08
MPG
Style
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Step 10
Comport
Price
MPG
Comport
Style
Price
MPG
Comport
Style
1
0.333333333
0.5
3
1
4
2
0.25
1
2
0.25
0.5
0.5
4
2
1
Priorities for the overall goal
Price
MPG
Comfort
Style
0.398
0.085
0.218
0.299
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Step 11
Criteria
CAR A
CAR B
CAR C
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Developing an overall priority ranking
Price
MPG
Comport
Style
0.123
0.087
0.593
0.265
0.32
0.274
0.341
0.655
0.557
0.639
0.065
0.08
Overall car A priority = .398(0.123)+0.085(0.087)+).218(0.593)+0.299(0.265)=.265
Overall car B priority = .398(0.320)+0.085(0.274)+).218(0.341)+0.299(0.655)=.421
Overall car C priority = .398(0.557)+0.085(0.639)+).218(0.066)+0.299(0.080)=.314
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
Step 12
Final AHP Ranking of Alternatives
Rank
Overall
CAR A
CAR B
0.421
CAR C
0.265
0.314
1
DSS Model
Case Study
Decision Support System
Mind Map
Type of Problem
Decision Theory
DSS Model
Case Study
Assessing Quality of Insurance Companies using
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
European Journal of Scientific Research
ISSN 1450-216X Vol.54 No.3 (2011), pp.448-457