Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
2006
TH E G R EATE ST TH R EAT
Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
2006
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The Greatest Threat
“Climate change is the
most severe problem
that we are facing
today.”
Sir David King, Chief Scientist for
the UK Government, January 2004
Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved
Photo: http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/global-warming-threatens-polar-bears/2005/07/08/1120704551713.html
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The Greatest Threat
“Global warming is a
brutal and urgent
reality...the greatest
threat hanging over the
future of mankind.”
Jacques Chirac
Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved
Photo: http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/global-warming-threatens-polar-bears/2005/07/08/1120704551713.html
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Outline
I.
Global Warming
Overview
II.
The Evidence in
Alaska
III.
Global
Cataclysmic
Concerns
IV. What We Can Do
magazine covers
courtesy of Chris Rose
Global Warming Basics
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
“There is an international scientific
consensus that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human causes.”
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
2004 (ACIA)
Global Warming Basics
Pollution is the Primary Cause
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The “Greenhouse gases”
(e.g., carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, CFC’s) trap heat
in the earth’s atmosphere.
Greenhouse
gases in
atmosphere
Solar energy
passes through
Radiant
heat is
trapped
Diagrams: Jennifer Allen
Diagrams © Jennifer Allen
Science understood
since 1859 - John Tyndall
Global Warming Basics
Pollution is the Primary Cause
C + O2
CO2
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(Combustion)
Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels
produces carbon dioxide.
Global Warming Basics
 The most carbon
dioxide in 650,000
years.
(Siegenthaler et al, 2005)
1.8
Global Temperature Change (deg F)
 Humans have
increased carbon
dioxide (CO2) in
the atmosphere by
more than 35%
since the Industrial
Revolution.
1000 Years of CO2 and
Global Temperature Change
380
1.4
1.1
CO2
0.7
0.4
340
Temperature
320
0
-0.4
300
-0.7
-1.1
1000
360
CO2 Concentration (ppm)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
CO2: Most Significant Greenhouse Pollutant
280
1200
1400
1600
Year
1800
2000
Source: ACIA 2004
Jennifer Allen graphic
Global Warming Basics
The Smoking Gun
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Natural factors only
Human factors only
Courtesy of Woods Hole Research Center
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Natural factors only
Human factors only
BOTH
Courtesy of
Woods Hole
Research
Center
Global Warming Basics
Alaska is Ground Zero
Surface Air Temperature Trends 1942-2003
In past 50 years,
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Alaska:
Temperatures have
increased
• 4oF
overall
(National Assessment
Synthesis Team)
Worldwide:
Temperatures have
increased
•
approx. 1oF
(ACIA, 2004)
Chapman and Walsh, 2004
Global Warming Basics
Why has Alaska warmed the most?
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The Albedo Effect
Snow and sea ice
reflect 85-90% of
sun’s energy.
Ocean surface and
dark soil reflect
only 10-20%.
(ACIA, 2004)
Increased
melting of snow
and sea ice
More dark earth
and ocean surface
is exposed
Land or water
warms faster
More of sun’s
heat energy is
absorbed
(“White shirt versus Black shirt”)
Global Warming Basics
Why has Alaska warmed the most?
Other Factors:
(from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004)
1) Albedo effect
2) More energy goes directly into warming
rather than evaporation
3) Atmosphere layer is thinner
in the Arctic
4) Increased heat transfer from
oceans as sea ice retreats
ACIA Graphic
5) Alterations in atmospheric
and ocean circulation
Impacts of Warming in Alaska
3. Wetlands and forests
4. Weather and storms
5. People and culture
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Columbia University photo
2. Animals
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
and permafrost
NOAA photo
1. Melting ice, glaciers,
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Melting Sea Ice
 Ice 40% thinner in
places.
 Arctic sea ice
recovered less in
2005/2006.
Source ACIA, 2004
Jennifer Allen Animation
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (millions of sq. km.)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 An area twice the
size of Texas has
melted away since
1979 (over 20%
decrease).
9-
ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA
1979-2005
8-
 Arctic Ocean could
be ice free in summer
by 2100.
76Source: NSIDC, 2005
1978
|
|
|
|
|
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2005
 Bering Sea Ice Sheet
also retreating.
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Glacial Retreat
McCall Glacier
 Alaska’s glaciers are
responsible for at least
9% of the global sea
level rise in the past
century. (ACIA 2004)
1941
1958
Austin Post photo
 Loss of over 588 billion
cubic yards between ’61
and ’98. (Climate Change 11/05)
Glacier Bay (Riggs Glacier)
USGS photo
2004
2003
Matt Nolan photo
 The rapid retreat of
Alaska’s glaciers
represents about 50% of
the estimated mass loss
by glaciers through 2004
worldwide..(ACIA 2004)
Bruce Molnia photo
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Permafrost Thawing
Osterkamp
and
Osterkamp
andRomanovsky
Romanovsky
Franklin
Bluffs
-6C
Upper soil layers have
warmed as much as 3oC in
the last 20 years, causing
permafrost to melt at an
unprecedented rate.
0
-8C
DEPTH
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Soil Temperature
at 20m
Soil Temperatures
at Depth
1987
2003
Average
Deadhorse
Deadhorse
19872003
z
WestDock
Dock
West
-10C
1m
|
|
|
-8 -7
1980
-6
|
-5
1988
TEMPERATURE
|
-4
|
|
-3
-2
1996
|
-1oC
2004
NSIDC
Romanovsky,
NSIDC
Consequences
photo © Vladimir Romanovsky
 Damage to infrastructure,
lakes, rivers, and forests.
 Rising sea levels.
 Release of stored carbon
(methane and CO2)
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Permafrost Thawing
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Soil Temperature at 20m Depth
Upper soil layers have
warmed as much as 3oC in
the last 20 years, causing
permafrost to melt at an
unprecedented rate.
Osterkamp and Romanovsky
-6C
-8C
Deadhorse
West Dock
-10C
1980
1988
1996
2004
Consequences
photo © Vladimir Romanovsky
 Damage to infrastructure,
lakes, rivers, and forests.
 Rising sea levels.
 Release of stored carbon
(methane and CO2)
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Animals at Risk
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Polar bears
Walruses
Ice seals
Black guillemots
Kittiwakes
Salmon
Caribou
Arctic grayling
NOAA photo
 Rising temperatures
 Shrinking habitat
 Food harder to get
 Expanding diseases
 Competition
NOAA photo
Impacts in Alaska
Polar Bears in Peril
2. Animals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Alaska polar bear
drownings 2004.
 87% on sea ice
(’79-’91) vs. 33%
on sea ice (’92’04) (Monnett et al. 12/05)
 Numbers in
western Hudson
Bay have declined
22% in 17 years.
Photo © environmentaldefense.org All rights reserved
 Vulnerable to
extinction.
 Cannibalism 2004.
 Starvation 2006.
Polar Bear Cannibalism
Amstrup et al., Polar Biology - accepted March 27, 2006 © Springer-Verlag 2006
Photos courtesy of Steven Amstrup, USGS
Impacts in Alaska
Walrus Warming
 9 abandoned
walrus calves in
2004. (Aquatic Mammals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
4/06)
 Calves were
“swimming
around us
crying.”
 Water flowing
north from Bering
to Chuckchi Sea
is 6 degrees F
warmer than 2
years ago.
Photo: Corel Corp., Courtesy of www.exzooberance com.
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Yukon Chinook Diseased
E.R.Keeley photo
Courtesy of
Dr. R. Kocan
Photo: Armed Forces Institute of Pathology
E.R. Keeley photo
 Protozoan parasite
Icthyophonus never found in
Yukon salmon before 1985.
 Today, up to 45% of the
Yukon’s Chinook salmon are
infected.
AFIP photo
photo
Kocanphoto
R. Kocan
R.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Yukon River: Water Temperature
 Infection is causing wastage,
reduced returns to spawning
grounds, and mortality.
Impacts in Alaska
Kenai Salmon Streams Warming
2. Animals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Kenai Streams: Days Above Temperature Standard
 Temperatures in
Kenai Peninsula
streams now
consistently
exceed Alaska’s
standard to
protect salmon
spawning areas
(13oC/ 55 F).
Source Cook Inlet Keeper January 2006
Impacts in Alaska
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Smaller Fry in Silted Skilak Lake
2. Animals
 Glacial melt has
increased silt in
Skilak Lake (major
rearing area for Kenai
River sockeye).
 Less light, less
plankton production,
less food for salmon
fry.
Photo: NWS/APRFC, NOAA
Photo © Adams River Salmon Soc
 Fry in 2004 were
about 50% smaller
than average for the
prior decade; fry in
2005 were 60%
smaller.
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Birds Threatened
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Kittlitz’s Murrelet
 Kittlitz’s Murrelet in Glacier
Bay declined 60% between
1991 and 1999; in Kenai
Fjords declined 83%
between since 1976.
(Alaska FWS, 2004)
 Reproduction failures of
birds on Pribilofs and
elsewhere (kittiwakes, redfaced cormorants).
Photo © 2004 Gary Luhm. All rights reserved.
 Subsistence observations:
birds flying higher; farther
away; lakes and rivers too
low; fewer birds seen.
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Exotic Species Appearing
“Squid, sharks, barracuda are
among species newly arrived in
Alaska waters.”
“Seiners and troll fishermen
reported sardines, anchovies,
jumbo squid, sharks, barracuda
and large concentrations of
brilliantly hued open-ocean fish
such as pomfret and opah.”
2005 GOA water temperatures
were 2-3o higher than average.
Juneau Empire report, Sep 25, 2005
Photo courtesy of the Deep Blue Gallery.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Juneau Empire Sep 25, 2005
Photo © Ocean Research, Inc.
Impacts in Alaska
Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing
2. Animals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Change from arctic to
subarctic conditions
underway in the
northern Bering Sea.
 Prey base for benthicfeeding gray whales,
walrus, and sea ducks is
declining.
Photo courtesy of J. Overland
NOAA photo
This “…continued trend…
may have profound impacts
on Arctic marine mammal and
diving seabird populations as
wellGary
as commercial
and
Luhm
subsistence fisheries.”
Grebmeier, Overland, Moore, et al.
Science, March 10, 2006.
Image: NASA Earth Observatory
NASA Earth Observatory
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Wetlands and Forests
In a Kenai NWR, in the last 5
decades in areas studied:
 Open areas
decreased by 34%.
 Wet areas
decreased by 88%.
 Water and lakes
decreased by 14%
USFWS photo
(Klein, Berg and Dial, 2004)
8-14,000 year old sphagnum
peat bogs are drying out and
becoming shrub lands.
On the Seward Peninsula-21 of 23 lakes are shrinking
significantly.
USFWS photo courtesy of Ed Berg
Impacts in Alaska
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Forest Decline: White Spruce
photo Barbara Logan © 2005. dlogan@alaska.net
 In 1950, critical temperature
threshold crossed (16 deg C);
since then, growth has
declined.
 Species could be eliminated
from central Alaska by the end
of this century (ACIA, 2004).
3. Wetlands and Forests
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: Black Spruce
3. Wetlands and Forests
 The dominant tree in about 55% of
Alaska’s boreal forest.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Warming temperatures result in
strongly reduced growth. Trees are
also disrupted by thawing ground.
USFS photo
 By 2100,
predicted
temperature
scenarios
would not
allow black
spruce to
survive in
Fairbanks
area (ACIA).
Impacts in Alaska
 A dramatic decline has
affected over 500,000
acres of yellow cedar in
SE Alaska.
 The suspected cause is
spring freezing injury, due
to:
• Warmer winters
(premature dehardening
in springtime).
• Reduced snow cover
(less insulation).
Paul Hennon photo
Hennon/USFS, 2004;
Schaberg & Hennon, 2005
Paul Hennon photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Forest Decline: Yellow Cedar
3. Wetlands and Forests
Impacts in Alaska
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Spruce Bud Worm
With increased warming,
all white spruce in Alaska
will be vulnerable to
outbreaks.
3. Wetlands and Forests
 Before 1990,
spruce budworm
was not able to
reproduce in
central Alaska.
 After warm
summers in the
1990’s, large
infestations of
budworms have
occurred.
(ACIA, 2004)
USDA Forest Service,
Dave Powell photo
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Spruce Bark Beetle
USFS photo
The world’s largest
outbreak of spruce
bark beetle has
infested approximately
4 million acres on the
Kenai Peninsula.
(ACIA, 2004)
Cause:
 Warmer summers
One year lifecycles.
 Warmer winters
No kill-off.
Columbia University photo http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Forest Fires
 6.6 million acres
burned in 2004
6.0
millions of acres
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 4.6 million acres
burned in 2005
Alaska Acres Burned 1956-2005
5.0
Bureau of Land Management
John McColgan photo
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1960
1970
1980
Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center
1990
2000
Impacts in Alaska
4. Weather and Storms
Infrastructure and Storms
September, 2005:
 Storm surges 9 ft, waves 15 ft.
 34 communities affected.
Kotzebue
Nome
 Newtok lost 10 ft of beach and a
1000 gallon fuel tank.
Unalakleet
Newtok
Bethel
 Golovin homes were flooded for an
unprecedented third year in a row.
Photo © Gary Braasch
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Unalakleet lost 10-20 feet of beach.
Golovin
Golovin, September 23, 2005.
photo courtesy of Toby Anungazuk, Jr.
Shishmaref, October 2002
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure
4. Weather and Storms
 Some shorelines have
retreated more than 1500
feet over past few decades.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(National Assessment Synthesis
Team)
 Newtok lost 2-3 miles in 40
years.
 In a single storm in 1997,
Shishmaref lost 125 feet of
beach.
12:37 PM
October 8, 2002
2:32 PM
 184 communities are at risk
from flooding and erosion
(GAO estimate).
“Coastal villages are becoming more
susceptible to flooding and erosion
caused in part by rising temperature.”
(GAO, 2004)
Shishmaref
photos courtesy of the Nome Nugget, from arctic.noaa.gov
Impacts in Alaska
4. Weather and Storms
Infrastructure
Army Corps of Engineers, April 2006 Report
Bethel
$5,000,000
Dillingham
Kaktovik
Kivalina
Newtok
Shishmaref
Unalakleet
10,000,000
40,000,000
15,000,000
90,000,000
16,000,000
30,000,000
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Costs of Future
Erosion Protection
Cost to
Relocate
How Long Does
The Community
Have
N/A
> 100 years
N/A
$ 20 – 40 million
$ 95 – 125 million
$ 80 – 130 million
$100 – 200 million
N/A
> 100 years
> 100 years
10 – 15 years
10 – 15 years
10 – 15 years
> 100 years
Impacts in Alaska
Public Health Agency of Canada
 Oyster contamination
summer of 2004.
 Hazardous travel,
hunting, and fishing.
West Nile virus mosquito vector
 Adverse dietary
impacts.
 Expansion of beavers.
 Health damage from
fires -- respiratory
illness, the elderly,
children.
ADEC photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Health Impacts
5. Human Impacts
 Water and sewer
failures.
South Fairbanks smoke, June 2004
 Threat from West Nile
virus.
Impacts in Alaska
Alaska’s Uniqueness
Global warming
threatens
Alaska’s very
soul and special
quality of life.
5. Human Impacts
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Subsistence Impacts
“…the Arctic is becoming
an environment at risk…
sea ice is less stable,
unusual weather patterns
are occurring, vegetation
cover is changing, and
particular animals are no
longer found in traditional
hunting areas during
specific seasons.
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Local landscapes,
seascapes, and
icescapes are becoming
unfamiliar, making people
feel like strangers in their
own land.” ACIA, 2004
NOAA photo
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Impacts in Alaska
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
People and Culture
“Climate change
is occurring faster
than people can
adapt. [It] is
strongly affecting
people in many
communities, in
some cases
threatening their
cultural survival.”
5. Human Impacts
Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
ACIA, 2004
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Indigenous Peoples
“For the Inuit, climate change
is a matter of livelihood, food,
health, and individual and
cultural survival.”
“The erosion and potential
destruction of our way of life
brought about by climate
change resulting from
emission of greenhouse
gases amounts to a violation
of the fundamental human
rights of Inuit.”
Sheila Watts-Cloutier
Former Chair, Inuit
Circumpolar Conference
Impacts in Alaska
Indigenous Peoples
“In no case may
a people be
deprived of its
own means of
subsistence.”
United Nations
International
Covenant on Civil and
Political Rights.
5. Human Impacts
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Shishmaref and Elsewhere: We Must Help
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
The Options:
 Relocate entire village.
 Pay villagers to disperse
to Nome, Kotzebue,
and Anchorage.
 Do nothing.
Kelly Eningowuk photo
Adaptation
The “Do Nothing” Option
1. Relocating Villages
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
“We are unique, and
need to be valued as
a national treasure
by the people of the
United States.
We deserve the
attention and help of
the American people
and the federal
government.”
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Robert Puschendorf
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
“The no action option for
Shishmaref is the annihilation
of our community…”
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
Adaptation
Shishmaref’s Request
1. Relocating Villages
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
“We are worth saving.”
“[We request that]
Shishmaref be used as a
Federal demonstration
project with maximum
flexibility to determine what
changes need to be made to
lower the cost and impact of
relocation, identify a Federal
champion, and facilitate
agency coordination.”
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Adaptation
2. Infrastructure
Adaptation: Other Needs
Alaska Highways and Communities Susceptible
to Permafrost Melting
Many other areas
where adaptation is
needed, e.g.
 Lands management
 Fish and wildlife
management
 Water and waste
management
Alan Parkinson photo
Courtesy of Peter Larsen, UAA
USFWS photo
 Archeology
Map courtesy of Peter Larsen
ANTHC photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Permafrost:
-- continuous
-- discontinuous
-- sporadic
-- <10%
Adaptation
Adaptation is
critical but not
sufficient. If global
warming emissions
continue to
increase,
irreplaceable
elements of our
natural and cultural
heritage may be
lost forever.
NMML
Adaptation: Not always possible
3. Extinctions
ADCED
Cataclysmic Global Consequences
Florida Areas Subject to Inundation
With a 100 cm Sea Level Rise
 Massive extinctions (25% by ’50)
 Ocean acidification
 Hurricane, drought, weather
 Coral reef destruction
 Coastal inundation
Harlequin frog
ACIA 2004
Robert Puschendorf
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Major ocean current changes
Photo © Robert Puschendorf All rights reserved
Ocean Acidification
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Over the last 200 years, about 50% of all CO2 produced on
earth has been absorbed by the ocean.
Remains in the
atmosphere
(greenhouse gas)
Dissolves in
sea water
CO2 + H20
HCO3- + H+
(ACID)
Water becomes
more acidic.
CO2
CO2
Ocean Acidification
Lower pH = MORE ACID
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Historical and Projected pH and Dissolved CO2
Feely, Sabine and Fabry, 2006
pH
 At present rate
of CO2 emission,
pH predicted to
increase by
0.4 units (ocean
acidity triples)
by 2100.
Dissolved
CO2
1850
 Since 1850,
ocean pH has
decreased by
about 0.1 unit
(over 25%
increase in
acidity).
2000
2100
Ocean Acidification
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Animals with calcium carbonate shells -- corals, sea urchins, snails,
mussels, clams, certain plankton, and others -- have trouble building
skeletons and shells can even begin to dissolve.
 Pteropods (an important
food source for salmon,
cod, herring, and pollock)
Pteropod
likely not able to survive
at CO2 levels predicted for
2100 (600ppm, pH 7.9)
 Coral reefs at serious risk.
All photos this page courtesy of NOAA
Under more acidic conditions:
 Larger animals such as
squid may have trouble
extracting oxygen.
 Food chain disruptions.
Squid
Clam
Coral Bleaching
 Corals damaged by higher water temperatures and
acidification.
 Higher water temperatures cause bleaching: corals expel
zooxanthellae algae.
 Corals need the algae for nutrition.
Healthy staghorn coral
Bleached staghorn coral (algae expelled)
Coral Bleaching
 Belize: estimated
40% loss since 1998
(Independent 6/9/06).
(Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 5/06)
 If warming continues,
Great Barrier Reef could
lose 95% of living coral
by 2050 (Ove HoeghGuldberg/ WWF 2005)
 Disease followed
bleaching in Caribbean
Reefs in 2005/06
Photo © Gary Braasch
 Seychelles: 90%
bleached in 1998, now
only 7.5% cover; 50%
decline in fish diversity
Cataclysmic Global Consequences
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Bangladesh: More than
17 million people live within
3 feet (1m) of sea level.
Bangladesh
Photo courtesy of Richard Wilson,
Bangladesh Maps, Harvard University
Photo courtesy of ourbangla.com
 Tuvalu: Island nation with
highest elevation 4.6m
(15 ft); most is less than
1m above sea level.
Tuvalu
Photo © Gary Braasch
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or, 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or, 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
What We Can Do
1. Is it Achievable?
2. Action Is Essential
at Every Level
•
•
•
•
•
•
Individual
Corporate
Local
State
Federal
International
3. Critical Steps
Photo courtesy of 7summits.com
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
REDUCE CO 2
EMISSIONS
What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
“Socolow’s Wedges”
Carbon Emissions
At least
TRIPLING
CO2
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(Billions of tons per year)
14
STABILIZATION
TRIANGLE
7
Flat Path
Avoid
doubling
CO2
1.9
1954
2004
2054
Pascala and Socolow, Science, 2004
What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
“Socolow’s Wedges”
Carbon Emissions
At least
TRIPLING
CO2
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(Billions of tons per year)
14
STABILIZATION
TRIANGLE
7
Flat Path
Avoid
doubling
CO2
1.9
1954
2004
2054
Pascala and Socolow, Science, 2004
What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
“Socolow’s Wedges”
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
14
Carbon Emissions
7 wedges are
(Billions of tons per year)
needed to build
the stabilization
triangle.
STABILIZATION
TRIANGLE
7
ONE WEDGE
Flat Path
2004
2054
One wedge avoids
1 billion tons of
carbon emissions
per year by 2054
Pascala and Socolow, Science, 2004
What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
“Socolow’s Wedges”
Carbon Emissions
Examples
14 (Billions tons per year)
14
Carbon Emissions
(Billions tons per year)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Each of These Changes Can Achieve
“One Wedge” of progress:
t
Pa
t
n
 Double fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars
from 30 to 60 mpg.
 Produce current coal-based electricity
with twice today’s efficiency.
 Increase wind electricity capacity by 50
times relative to today. ONE WEDGE
7
 Adopt
conservation
tillage in all
Flat
Path
agricultural soils worldwide.
For more examples see
Pascala and Socolow, Science, 2004
2004
2054
h
rre
Cu
ONE WEDGE
7
Flat Path
2004
2054
What We Can Do
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Wind Power
“It is becoming clear that
wind energy will play a
major role in the national
generation mix. In
Kotzebue, Alaska, wind
energy provides between
5%-7% of the total energy
needs and we plan to add
more. There are potentially
70 to 90 communities that
could reduce their energy
costs by adding wind
energy.”
Brad Reeve
General Manager
Kotzebue Electric
Association
Courtesy of Chris Rose
What We Can Do
Wind Power
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Wind Resource Map
Wind turbines in
Toksook Bay have
already displaced
nearly 5000 gallons
of diesel fuel that
otherwise would
have been burned by
diesel generators.
Denali Commission 5/06
What We Can Do
Individual Actions
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
3. Use renewables
4. Be involved
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
What We Can Do
Corporate Actions
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Reducing CO2 is good business
 Dow Chemical: reduced energy
per unit of production by 21%
since 1994, saving $3 billion.
 3M reduced emissions by about
37% between 1990 and 2004, by
reducing energy consumption 4%
per year.
 BP reduced emissions 14%
between 1998 and 2004, gaining
$650 million.
BP Greenhouse gas emissions: (million tonnes):
1998: 95.3 2000: 83.7 2002: 82.4 2003: 83.4
What We Can Do
Government Actions
A Success Story
Regulating Emissions (SO2) through Cap and Trade
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
SO2 Emissions from Utilities
 SO2 emissions
have declined by
more than 6.5
million tons since
1980.
 Fully implemented,
the cap reduces
SO2 emissions to
50% of 1980 levels
by 2010.
Source: EPA 2002
What We Can Do
National
• Senate Resolution
• Safe Climate Act (H.R. 5642);
Global Warming Pollution
Reduction Act (S.3698).
Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Government Actions
State
• Climate Change Commission
• AITC, AYEA Resolutions
Local
• Mayor’s Climate Protection
Agreement/ICLEI
For the sake of current and future generations,
we need to demand
National, state, and local action!
What We Can Do
Government Actions
Senate
Resolution
Remarks
by Senator
Lisa Murkowski
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Finding
#1: and
“Greenhouse
gases accumulating
in the atmosphere
are
“As more
more information
becomes available,
I believe
temperatures
to rise…”
there is nowcausing
almostaverage
universal
acceptance
that our planet is
warming.
anthropogenic
influence
on our
Finding
#2: While
“There the
is a extent
growingofscientific
consensus
that human
activity is
climate mayaremain
in debate,
believe it isgas
a reality
that man
is
substantial
cause ofI greenhouse
accumulation
in the
contributingatmosphere.”
to the current warming trend. Accordingly, it is
appropriate
– and quite
frankly
our
responsibility
– stop
to take
Finding
#3: “Mandatory
steps
will be
required
to slow or
the steps
growth
to curb the growth
of greenhouse
gas emissions.
We cannot
of greenhouse
gas emissions
into the atmosphere.”
afford to wait to take action – while some warming can have
“It
is the sense
of thesuch
Senate
that Congress
should
enact
comprehensive
positive
impacts,
as opening
shipping
lanes
inathe
Arctic,
and
effectivewarming
national program
of mandatory,
market-based
limits and
significant
of the planet
will have
severe, negative
incentives
on our
emissions
of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse
impacts on
society.”
the growth of such emissions …”
•
•
February 13, 2006
Won on a 53-44 vote, with support of 12 Republicans
Initiated new discussion on a national, mandatory program
to reduce global warming pollution.
What We Can Do
Government Actions
Alaska Climate Change Commission
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
HCR 30: Creating an Alaska Climate Impact Assessment
Commission
WHEREAS recent weather patterns have created warming trends that have
jeopardized the health and well-being of residents of communities and
the natural resources on which they rely...
BE IT RESOLVED by the Alaska State Legislature that there is created an
Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission.....
FURTHER RESOLVED that the duties of the commission include:
(1) Assess the current and potential effects of climate warming trends on the
citizens, natural resources, public health, and economy of the state...
(2) Estimate costs to the state...
(8) Recommend policies to decrease the
negative effects of climate change...
Enacted May 9, 2006.
Senator Olson
Representative Joule
What We Can Do
National
• Senate Resolution
• Safe Climate Act (H.R. 5642);
Global Warming Pollution
Reduction Act (S.3698).
Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Government Actions
State
• Climate Change Commission
• AITC, AYEA Resolutions
Local
• Mayor’s Climate Protection
Agreement/ICLEI
For the sake of current and future generations,
we need to demand
National, state, and local action!
Summary
Why Alaska Matters
 We are at ground zero.
Photo © 2002 Robert Glenn Ketchum
Courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
in the Global Warming Crisis
 We are the “Paul Revere”
of global warming.
 Alaska contributes in
unique ways to the earth’s
natural and cultural
heritage, and this heritage
is imperiled.
 If we do not act…..
 Our leaders matter.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
dlwilliams@gci.net
Thank You
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
JRA
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
For further information:
Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
308 G Street, Suite 219
Anchorage, AK 99501
dlwilliams@gci.net
(907) 929-9370
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Presentation produced by Jennifer R. Allen
Alaska Digital Graphics, Anchorage
For technical assistance please contact:
Jennifer Allen
jrallen@ak.net
(907) 360-2881
PO Box 212806
Anchorage, Alaska 99521
Scientific Contributors
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
We thank the following scientists and researchers for generous provision
of data and figures presented here, and for valuable discussions and
other assistance:
Ed Berg
Cook Inlet Keeper
Paul Hennon
Richard Kocan
Peter Larsen
Tom Osterkamp
James Overland
Jonathan Overpeck
Vladimir Romanovsky
Chris Rose
Mark Willette
Woods Hole Research Center
Photographic Contributors
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
We gratefully acknowledge the photographs made available by:
Adams River Salmon Society http://www.salmonsociety.com/
Toby Anungazuk, Jr., Golovin
Alaska Conservation Foundation http://www.akcf.org
*Alaska Department of Community & Economic Development www.dced.state.ak.us/apl/home.cfm
*Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation http://www.dec.state.ak.us/
Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium http://www.anthc.org/index.cfm
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004 http://www.amap.no/acia/
*Armed Forces Institute of Pathology http://www.afip.org/vetpath/WSC/WSC95/95wsc18.htm
Gary Braasch http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
*Bureau of Land Management http://www.nifc.gov/gallery/
Columbia University http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194
Deep Blue Dive Shop, Utila, Honduras http://www.deepblueutila.com/
Kelly Eningowuk, Shishmaref
Environmental Defense http://www.environmentaldefense.org
E.R. Keeley, University of British Columbia
Robert Glenn Ketchum http://www.robertglennketchum.com/
Barbara Logan dlogan@alaska.net
Gary Luhm http://www.garyluhm.com/
*NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Photographic Contributors (cont.)
*National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/
*National Weather Service Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/
Ocean Research, Inc., Honolulu http://www.ocean-research.com/
Alan Parkinson, CDC Anchorage
Public Health Agency of Canada http://www.westnilevirus.gc.ca
Robert Puschendorf
The 7 Summits http://7summits.com/
The Age, Melbourne. http://www.theage.com.au
The Nome Nugget http://www.nomenugget.com
*USDA Forest Service http://www.forestryimages.org/
*US Fish and Wildlife Service http://www.fws.gov/
*US Geological Survey http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/photos.asp
Web Portal of Bangladesh http://www.ourbangla.com
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr., Shishmaref
Richard Wilson, Harvard University
Copyright and intellectual property rights for all photographs, graphics, figures and
maps in this presentation are retained by their respective creators or owners as
indicated. Please contact them directly for permission to use their property and/or
guidelines on permitted usage. *Public domain source exceptions are asterisked.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
© 2006 Alaska Conservation Solutions. This presentation is the intellectual
property of the author. Permission is granted for the presentation to be freely
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