Digital technology impacts by 2020
Pew Internet / Elon University tension pairs
Lee Rainie
Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project
Janna Anderson
Elon University – Imagining the Internet Center
Presented to: World Future Society
July 27, 2012
Networked in the future
• Three revolutions
• Scenarios of life and love
in the metaverse
1) Mo’ for me
2) Mo’ for them
About the Future of the Internet surveys
Our inspirer
About the Future of the Internet surveys
– Me and Janna
Anderson of Elon U.
– We issue our reports
free online
– Books published by
Cambria Press
About the Future of the Internet surveys
– Respondents - Experts
in Early ’90s Predictions
Database
– New invitees (high-tech
organizations, etc.)
– Pass-along
recommendations
– “Friends Pew Internet”
– Not a scientific sample
About the Future of the Internet surveys
– We pose scenarios in
order to inspire
detailed elaborations
– The qualitative work
is the meat of the
effort
Survey 5 – 2011
– August 28 – October 31
– 1,021 respondents
• 40% research scientist;
employed by a college or
university
• 12% work at IT firms
• 11% work at non-profits
• 10% do IT work at their firm
• 8% consultants
• 5% government workers
• 2% work for pub/media
http://bit.ly/LX9dyQ
Survey 5 – 2011
– 8 “tension pair”
scenarios – one scenario
posits big change by
2020; the other, little or
no change
– Top-of-mind subjects
–We aren’t
perfect
http://bit.ly/LX9dyQ
The 4 “pairs” findings you can read
on your own
1. Web vs. apps – Which will prevail?
(Real action is in HTML5)
http://bit.ly/GGJHAK
2. Gamification – How widely will it
spread? (It’ll get better through
evolution, but watch out for
manipulation)
http://bit.ly/Jcq2tI
The 4 “pairs” findings you can read
on your own
3. Corporate responsibility – How far will
they go in cooperating with repressive
regimes? (The key is if/how dissidents and
white-hat hackers take charge)
http://bit.ly/N1OkpM
4. Smart systems – What will the home of the
future look like? (Complex systems are a
bear to run)
http://bit.ly/QzW1o6
Pattern recognition in answers
• Hope often characterizes their choices at time;
more than clear-eyed calculation
• Deep and chronic tensions persist in the
respondents’ views
– Security vs. privacy
– Desire for more information vs. simplicity
– Human plasticity vs. immutability
• Socio-economic divisions are ongoing reality
Pattern recognition in answers
• Your questions are not right
• Your timeframe is off – in both directions
• Pew Internet mantra:
–Mobile is the needle, social is the
thread, people are the cloth -- is a big
part of the story
How will hyperconnected Millennials live?
http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Hyperconnected-lives.aspx
Millennials’ future
• In 2020 the brains of multitasking teens and young
adults are "wired" differently from those over age 35
and overall it yields helpful results. They do not suffer
notable cognitive shortcomings as they multitask and
cycle quickly through personal- and work-related tasks.
Rather, they are learning more and they are more
adept at finding answers to deep questions, in part
because they can search effectively and access
collective intelligence via the Internet. In sum, the
changes in learning behavior and cognition among the
young generally produce positive outcomes.
Millennials’ future
• In 2020, the brains of multitasking teens and young
adults are "wired" differently from those over age 35
and overall it yields baleful results. They do not retain
information; they spend most of their energy sharing
short social messages, being entertained, and being
distracted away from deep engagement with people
and knowledge. They lack deep-thinking capabilities;
they lack face-to-face social skills; they depend in
unhealthy ways on the Internet and mobile devices to
function. In sum, the changes in behavior and cognition
among the young are generally negative outcomes.
Millennials’ future
Change for the better
Change for the worse
52%
42%
Themes
• Quick twitch younger “supertaskers” will
master data streams more adeptly
• John Smart: Kuznets curve (tech version) will
be beginning phase 3
• This world will produce new winners and
losers , separated by search skills, social
network capital, strategic mastery of attention
• Ubiquitous data and diversions will drive some
to shallow choices and diminished lives
Surprise/delight
• Amber Case, cyberanthropologist, CEO of Geoloqi
“We are becoming ‘persistent paleontologists’ of our own
external memories, as our brains are storing the
keywords to get back to those memories and not the full
memories themselves.”
• Tiffany Shlain, director of the film Connected
“As Sophocles once said, ‘Nothing vast enters the life of
mortals without a curse.’”
What’s the future of money?
http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Future-of-Money.aspx
Future of money
• By 2020, most people will have embraced and
fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping
for purchases they make, nearly eliminating
the need for cash or credit cards. People will
come to trust and rely on personal hardware
and software for handling monetary
transactions over the Internet and in stores.
Cash and credit cards will have mostly
disappeared from many of the transactions
that occur in advanced countries.
Future of money
• People will not trust the use of near-field communications
devices and there will not be major conversion of money to
an all-digital-all-the-time format. By 2020, payments
through the use of mobile devices will not have gained a lot
of traction as a method for transactions. The security
implications raise too many concerns among consumers
about the safety of their money. And people are resistant
to letting technology companies learn even more about
their personal purchasing habits. Cash and credit cards will
still be the dominant method of carrying out transactions in
advanced countries.
Future of money
More or less cashless
Not much change
65%
33%
Themes
• It’s already happening. It’s all about the
smartphone and two-factor authentication
• Paper/coined money and advantages of
selective anonymity will still matter
• Trust isn’t the issue as much as the complexity
of these systems …
… and willingness of card companies to
embrace them
• Barry Chudakov – Rise of peer-to-peer
currencies
Surprise/delight
• Jerry Michalski, founder of Relationship Economy
Expedition and Sociate
“It's going to get incredibly easy to set up local currencies
… that may not be coupled to fiat currencies …, thus
freeing them from the … vagaries of the global financial
markets.”
• Kevin Carson, researcher, Center for a Stateless Society
“The paperless digital economy will exist to a considerable
extent under cover of a darknet, with… a lot of relocalized economic activity … that violates zoning,
licensing, and spurious ‘health’ and ‘safety’ laws sucking
commerce out of the official above-ground economy.”
The impact of Big Data?
http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Future-of-Big-Data.aspx
Future of Big Data
• Thanks to many changes, including the building of "the
Internet of Things," human and machine analysis of
large data sets will improve social, political, and
economic intelligence by 2020. The rise of what is
known as "Big Data" will facilitate things
like "nowcasting" (real-time "forecasting" of events);
the development of "inferential software" that assesses
data patterns to project outcomes; and the creation of
algorithms for advanced correlations that enable new
understanding of the world. Overall, the rise of Big Data
is a huge positive for society in nearly all respects.
Future of Big Data
• Thanks to many changes, including the building of "the
Internet of Things," human and machine analysis of Big Data
will cause more problems than it solves by 2020. The
existence of huge data sets for analysis will engender false
confidence in our predictive powers and will lead many to
make significant and hurtful mistakes. Moreover, analysis of
Big Data will be misused by powerful people and institutions
with selfish agendas who manipulate findings to make the
case for what they want. And the advent of Big Data has a
harmful impact because it serves the majority (at times
inaccurately) while diminishing the minority and ignoring
important outliers. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a big
negative for society in nearly all respects.
Future of Big Data
Improve intelligence
Cause new problems
53%
39%
Themes
• Jeff Jarvis: “Demonizing data … is demonizing
knowledge” … and the analytical tools will only
get better
• Don’t downplay the “dark side” of surveillance
society
• DIY analytics/monitoring will be as helpful as Big
Data numbers crunching
• Human capacities are the key to its success and
likely shortcomings
• “How to lie with the Internet of Things” /
“distribution of harms” (Oscar Gandy)
Surprise/delight
• Patrick Tucker
“Computer science, data-mining, and a growing
network of sensors and information-collection
software programs are giving rise to a
phenomenal occurrence, the knowable future.”
The future of higher education?
Higher ed’s future
• By 2020, higher education will be quite different from
the way it is today. There will be mass adoption of
teleconferencing and distance learning to leverage
expert resources. Significant numbers of learning
activities will move to individualized, just-in-time
learning approaches. There will be a transition to
"hybrid" classes that combine online learning
components with less-frequent on-campus, in-person
class meetings. Most universities' assessment of
learning will take into account more individuallyoriented outcomes and capacities that are relevant to
subject mastery. Requirements for graduation will be
significantly shifted to customized outcomes.
Higher ed’s future
• In 2020, higher education will not be much different
from the way it is today. While people will be
accessing more resources in classrooms through the
use of large screens, teleconferencing, and personal
wireless smart devices, most universities will mostly
require in-person, on-campus attendance of
students most of the time at courses featuring a lot
of traditional lectures. Most universities'
assessment of learning and their requirements for
graduation will be about the same as they are now.
Higher ed’s future
Big change
60%
Not so much
39%
Themes
• Innovate or die
• It’s the economy and customers, stupid!
• Competency credentialing, yes … degree
customization, not so much (David Ellis)
• Learning is changing from a “transaction” to a
“process” – lifelong, perpetual learning and it will
take place in new spaces: Peer-to-peer
collaborations emerge
• What’s the franchise? What’s the commodity?
Surprise/delight
• Bryan Alexander, senior fellow at the National
Institute for Technology in Liberal Education
“By 2020 we will see: … [the] number of college
campuses will dwindle. Those that survive will
emphasize: face-to-face experiences; campus
grounds (beauty, history, charm); charismatic
teachers; a sense of tradition.”
Why predictions matter
Ithiel De Sola Poole, Technologies of Freedom
On the printing press, telegraph, radio,
television
“These technologies caused revised
conceptions of man's place in the universe”
Amen!