Energy and CO2 Implications of Music Delivery Options Jonathan Koomey Visiting Professor, Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies October 6, 2009 Outline Introduction This talk adapted from one given by Chris Weber of Carnegie Mellon University in early October 2009 Report itself downloadable at http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/ecotech Previous work of environmental effects of ICT Modeled Scenarios Data and Assumptions Results Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Summary World data center electricity use doubled between 2000 and 2005 Source: Koomey 2008 3 Environmental Implications of ICT Increasing interest of how informational and communication technology (ICT) effects the environment Previous studies have assessed: Telecommuting vs. commuting (Atkyns 2002) Online vs. traditional retail (Matthews 2001, Abukhader 2004) Electronic delivery of news (Toffel 2004) Online vs traditional DVD rental (Sivaraman 2007) Material intensity of online music (Turk 2003) Generally ICT has won by: Dematerialization Reduced Logistics However, continuing energy use rise of internet data centers and personal ICT products -> renewed interest in issue 4 Goal and Scope of this study Examine as realistically as possible cumulative energy and CO2 emissions for delivery of 1 album of music via 6 alternative scenarios: 1) Album packaged on CD and delivered via traditional retail methods 2) Album published on CD and delivered by light-duty truck through an online e-tail provider 3) Album published on CD and delivered by express air through an online e-tail provider 4) Album downloaded as mp3/mp4 files from an online music service and used digitally 5) Album downloaded as mp3/mp4 files from an online music service and burned to CD-R for digital and CD use (no CD packaging) 6) Album downloaded as mp3/mp4 files from an online music service and burned to CD-R for digital and CD use, stored in individual CD packaging, i.e., slimline jewel cases System Diagrams shown below Traditional Retail Model Jewel Case Plastic Wrap Recording Vis Artist CD Production Liner Printing System Boundary CD Printing Packaging Warehousing Retailing Use Disposal Logistics along arrows E-commerce Delivery Model Jewel Case Plastic Wrap Recording Vis Artist CD Production Liner Printing System Boundary CD Printing Packaging Warehousing Logistics Warehouse Use Disposal Home CPU and ordering Logistics along arrows Online Music Model Online Music Recording Vis Artist System Boundary Digital Music Server Home CPU and DCordering Use Functional Unit Question Assumption: After burning digital album on CD, functionally equivalent Can use in either digital or CD format Because of this, can ignore production of laptop, CD player, iPod, etc. Sound quality not similar but do consumers care? In practice, probably used differently Digital downloads used more in computers and digital music players CDs used more in cars, CD decks, etc Assumptions and Data Gather >3 primary data points and assume triangular distribution Monte Carlo simulation Production location varied through assumed grid mix uncertainty (300-900 g CO2e/kWh) Data gathered for CD and packaging production (reports, Ecoinvent, IO-LCA) Cardboard packaging for retail/etail (EPA WARM, EDF Paper Calculator) Distances and delivery energy (Logistics companies, GREET, previous work), large range Warehouse and Retail store energy use (gov’t sources, previous work) Home CPU use for ordering (assumption range, Energy Star data) Internet Backbone Energy Use Taylor and Koomey (2008) Assume 60-100 MB album size (iTunes, Amazon averages) Customer Transport Shown in previous work to be significant in logistics Difficult to model given large variation in fuel economy, distance, etc Assumed model simulates distance, fuel economy, passengers per vehicle, and purchased items per person using realistic ranges Assumed correlation in distance and items/person-trip and distance to retail/distance for etail delivery Results Cumulative Energy Demand/album Similar for CO2 emissions Summary Statistics CD/packaging production: 32-69% of total Customer Transport and Last Mile: 52% of retail, 24-28% etail Other significant contributors (Retail/Etail) Warehousing Retail Store Individual cardboard packaging (Etail) Upstream internet usage: As important as CD/CD-R production Uncertainty and Variability Rank correlation importance shows variable’s contribution to uncertainty/variability Effect of Correlated Errors 100% Cumulative Probability 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Difference 6-2, g CO2e/album 1600 1800 2000 Discussion Dematerialization increases environmental performance but partially offset by internet energy use Sensitivity—what parameters could flip result Retail with zero customer transport emissions (bicycle/walk) 5 hours of web browsing for online shopping 260 MB data transfer (lossless files) Suggested Future Work: Customer usage patterns: are they different? Other types of online music: single song vs album, subscription, etc Energy use of streaming audio/video—large upstream data transfer Questions Contact: clweber@cmu.edu, jgkoomey@gmail.com Reference for article: Weber, Christopher, Jonathan G. Koomey, and Scott Matthews. 2009. The Energy and Climate Change Impacts of Different Music Delivery Methods. Analytics Press. August 17. <http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/ecotech> References Abukhader, S., and G. Jonson. 2004. "E-tail and the Environment: a Gateway to the Renewal of Greening Supply Chains." International Journal of Technology Management. vol. 28, pp. 274-288. Atkyns, Robert, Michele Blazek, and Joseph Roitz. 2002. "Measurement of environmental impacts of telework adoption amidst change in complex organizations: AT&T survey methodology and results." Resources, Conservation, and Recycling. vol. 36, no. 3. October. pp. 267-285. Koomey, Jonathan. 2008. "Worldwide electricity used in data centers." Environmental Research Letters. vol. 3, no. 034008. September 23. <http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/3/034008> Matthews, H. Scott, Chris T. Hendrickson, and Denise L. Soh. 2001. "Environmental and Economic Effects of E-Commerce: A Case Study of Book Publishing and Retail Logistics." Transportation Research Record 1763. pp. 6-12. Sivaraman, D, S Pacca, K Mueller, and J Lin. 2007. "Comparative Energy, Environmental, and Economic Analysis of Traditional and E-Tail DVD Rental Networks." Journal of Industrial Ecology. vol. 11, pp. 7791. Taylor, Cody, and Jonathan Koomey. 2008. Estimating energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of Internet advertising. Working paper for IMC2. February 14. <http://imc2.com/Documents/CarbonEmissions.pdf> Toffel, M.W., and A. Horvath. 2004. "Environmental Implications of Wireless Technologies: News Delivery and Business Meetings." Environmental Science & Technology. vol. 38, no. 11. pp. 29612970. Turk,V.,V. Alakeson, M. Kuhndt, and M. Rithoff. 2003. The Environmental and Social Impacts of Digital Music: A Case Study with EMI. Wuppertal, Germany: Digital Europe.