Pakistan and
Regional Security in Asia
1
DR. ARNDT MICHAEL
INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF PUBLIC
UNIVERSITIES (IFPU)
SUMMER SCHOOL
"MANAGING AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS"
JULY 5-10 AT CERIUM, THE UNIVERSITY OF
MONTREAL’S CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
Structure of Presentation
2
A (very) brief history of Pakistan
2. Pakistan today
3. Determinants of Pakistan’s Security Conception
4. Pakistan‘s Foreign Policy in the region
1.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Afghanistan
China
India
The South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation
5. Summary and „policy recommendations“
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
Objective of Presentation
3
 Identify key foreign and security policy
strategies
 Assess Pakistan‘s security interests in the
greater regional context (Afghanistan, India
and China)
 Possibly predict Pakistani policy behaviour
in an international crisis
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
Pakistan
4
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
Pakistan – Major ethnic groups
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Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
1) Very Brief History of Pakistan
6
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August 14, 1947 - Pakistan founded (West & East Wing)
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1947 - 1st India-Pakistan War
1965 - 2nd India-Pakistan War
1971 - 3rd India-Pakistan War
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1971 – East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh
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Constituted appr. 50% of Pakistani territory
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May 1998: Pakistan becomes nuclear power (a process already begun in 1972)
1999: Kargil war between India and Pakistan
1999: General Pervez Musharraf takes over as „Chief Executive“ (4th Military Coup), later president
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2001: Pakistan becomes major US-ally in fight against terror
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Since February 2008:
 President: Asif Ali Zardari
 Prime Minister: Shaukat Aziz
 Foreign Minister: Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
1) Very Brief History of Pakistan cont.
7
Since 1947, Pakistan has followed a cycle of
 military intervention
 military government
 military misrule
 return to civilian government
 civilian floundering
 and: renewed intervention
 Summary:
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Bureaucrats / unelected politicians: 11 years in power
Army: 34 years in power (4 military coups)
Elected representatives: 15 years in power
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today
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Domestic Conflict Lines:
1. Inter-confessional and supra-regional violence
(Sunni - Shiites extremists, other religious
minorities)
2. Latent situation of civil war in Karachi (economic
center, Sindh –Mohajir - Pashtun)
3. Baluchistan uprisings and revolts (deep sea port of
Gwadar; gas and oil)
4. Terrorism and civil war in the North West Frontier
Province, bordering Afghanistan
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today
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 The crisis state
 Political crisis
 Economic crisis
 Social crisis
 Educational crisis
 The global conflict state
 Terrorism
 Conflict region: Iran-Afghanistan-Kashmir (USA: „AfPak“)
 High concentration of different (violence) actors (state and
non-state) with repercussions for regional security
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State actors:
Domestic actors:
External actors:
„Private“ actors:
Pakistan; USA
Police; paramilitary groups
Military; intelligence services
Jihadists; Taliban, local mafia
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today cont.
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 HDI: The United Nations Human Development Report for
2007-08 estimates that almost 33 percent of Pakistanis live in
poverty.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today cont.
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 Oligarchic system (establishment)
 Major Pakistani political and social forces: The triad
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Military (plus Inter Services Intelligence, ISI)
Bureaucracy (Civil Service of Pakistan, CSS)
Feudal landlords and the „families“ (22)
 Also important: US ambassador as “unofficial” player
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today cont.
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The Role of the Military
 Centre of dysfunctionality: dominance of army
(supported by various US administrations)
 Approximately 650,000 personnel are on active duty in
the military - the world's 6th largest armed force as of
2010
 Combined with the 302,000 strong paramilitary forces
and 528,000 in reserve, the Pakistani military has a total
size of over 1,000,000 personnel
 No conscription
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today cont.
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 General Headquarters (GHQ) located in Rawalpindi
 Veto position / monopoly on:
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Nuclear and rocket program; arms procurement; Kashmir question
Possible changes because of new government
 Most powerful corporative actor of the country
 Chief of the Army Staff (COAS): responsible for
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nuclear programme, procurement, military strategy, operative planning
comprehensive competence in security policy guidelines
 Director-General of ISI: reports to prime minister, but assigned to
COAS
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today cont.
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The Role of the ISI
 The Directorate for Inter-Services
Intelligence (also Inter-Services Intelligence
or ISI) is the largest intelligence service in Pakistan
 It is one of the three main branches of Pakistan's
intelligence agencies
 Involvement in major conflicts
 Conflicting statements as to its role and engagement
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
2) Pakistan today cont.
15
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The Role of the ISI
(2010) A new report by the London School of Economics
(LSE) claimed to provide the most concrete evidence yet that
the ISI is providing funding, training and sanctuary to the
Taliban insurgency on a scale much larger than previously
thought.
The report's author Matt Waldman spoke to nine Taliban field
commanders in Afghanistan and concluded that Pakistan's
relationship with the insurgents ran far deeper than
previously realised.
Some of those interviewed suggested that the organization
even attended meetings of the Taliban's supreme council, the
Quetta Shura.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/south_asia/10302946.stm
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
3)Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception
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Major Phases of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
 1947-52: Exploration and Foundations of Foreign Policy
 1953-62: Alignment with West
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SEATO
CENTO
 1962-71: Transition
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Creation of Bangladesh 1971
 1972-79: Bilateralism and Non-Alignment
 1980-1990: Afghanistan and Partnership with USA
 1990-2001: Post Cold War-Era and Nuclear Power
 2001: Counter Terrorism
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
3)Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception
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 Pakistan: special case of inseparable connection
between internal and external security
 International actors in the region:
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Presence of international troops (ISAF, NATO) in Afghanistan
Air strikes by means of predator drones of CIA and US Air
force
 Frontiers:
 Contentious Durand line with Afghanistan (1863, divides
ethnic and linguistic people)
 Kashmir region
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
3) Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception
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Four major determinants of Pakistan‘s security
conception:
1) The India-Pakistan Relationship
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Secular India vs. Pakistan, home of Muslim
Five wars between India and Pakistan
Pakistan: „non-state actors“: Jihadists, trained by Pakistan ISI
and army (privatization of war) and
Extremist Islamists (Sunni) – today Pakistani Taliban
IndPak as one field of operation for local terror groups
Fear of Indian/Russian encirclement
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
3) Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception
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2) The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship:
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1862 Durand Line – separated British India from Afghanistan
in the West
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as inner frontier
to the East
Both went through Pashtun territory
Afghanistan providing „strategic depth“
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
3) Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception
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 „Actors“:
 Kashmiri Jihadis
 Pakistani Jihadis
 Afghani Mujadehin (Taliban)
 Fluent borders and separations
 „AfPakInd“ – since the end of Taliban regime in
Kabul, center of operation has shifted to the FATA
 The „rulers“ in Kabul and Peshawar (capital of
NWFP) directly impact on Pakistani inner and outer
security
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
3) Determinants of Pakistani Security Conception
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3) Status claim: Pakistan as a regional power
(self-perception; role theory: ego – alter)
 Particular defence and alliance policy: China as
counter weight to contain India
 Current projects with Chinese support reflect this:
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Deep sea harbour Gwadar in the South
Karakorum Highway in the North
 Current alliance with USA (past experiences)
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
3) Determinants of Pakistani Security Conception
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4) Particular ethical, moral and religious
orientation of Pakistani security policy
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Anti-imperialism of independence movement
Non-alignment movement (NAM)
Ideological function: Islamic Umma (Muslim World),
translated into socially accepted foreign policy, in turn helpful
in security political „privatization“ of Kashmir and Afghanistan
policy
Economic function: close relations with Saudi Arabia (<->
cheap oil import, but indirect domestic influence in terms of
madrassas etc.)
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4) Pakistan Foreign Policy in the region
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1. Afghanistan (Afpak)
2. China
3. India and Kashmir
4. Regional Cooperation
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan
24
Durand Line:
North West Frontier
Province (NWFP)
 Region took a new shape
when the Durand Line was
established in 1893 by the
British.
 Border line has separated the
Pashtun and Baluch tribes.
 Today, fighting is taking place
there between militants and
Afghan/Pakistani military,
backed by NATO forces.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
Pakistan: Major ethnic groups
25
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan
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 Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of using its intelligence
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agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in aiding the
Taliban militants.
Pakistan has denied the allegations, but has said it does not
have full control of the actions of the ISI.
Relations became even more strained as the United States
supports an Afghan invasion of tribal regions.
US President Obama: announced „Afpak“ Strategy, 2009
Territorial borders of Afpak:
 Iran, three central Asian states, China, India and Indian
Ocean
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan
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 Pakistani strategists argument: Afghanistan could
provide "strategic depth“ in the event of a war
with neighboring India.
 Should the Indian Army cross into Pakistan, the
Pakistan Army could temporarily locate supplies in
Afghanistan and prepare for a counter-offensive.
 At various times, Pakistan backed the mujahedeen
against the Soviets, mujahedeen against each other
and the Taliban against the Northern Alliance.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan
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 On June 15, 2008, the Afghan government issued a
statement threatening to send its army across the Durand
Line in pursuit of rebels stationed along the mountainous
border inside Pakistan.
 The statement caused considerable damage to bilateral
relations and was rebuked by Pakistani officials as
inappropriate.
 The United States, however, has stated it does support a
temporary Afghan invasion of tribal areas in Pakistan if the
Pakistani army is incapable of doing so.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.2) Pakistan - China
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 Chinese president Hu Jintao: the relationship
between Pakistan and China is "higher than the
mountains and deeper than the oceans".
 Favorable relations with China have been a major
pillar of Pakistan's foreign policy.
 China strongly supported Pakistan's opposition to
the Soviet Union’s involvement in Afghanistan and is
perceived by Pakistan as a regional counterweight to
India.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.2) Pakistan - China
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 China and Pakistan also share very close military
relations, with China supplying a range of modern
armaments to the Pakistani defence forces.
 China supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir while
Pakistan supports China on the issues of Xinjiang,
Tibet, and Taiwan.
 Strategically, China is used to balance against India.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.2) Pakistan - China
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 Free trade agreement China-Pakistan
 Lately, military cooperation has deepened with joint
projects, producing armaments ranging from fighter jets
to guided missile frigates.
 Substantial investment from China in Pakistani
infrastructural expansion, including the Pakistani deep
sea port in Gwadar.
 Pakistan serves as China's main bridge to Muslim
countries.
 Pakistan had earlier played a leading role in bridging the
communication gap between China and the West,
through Henry Kissinger's secret visit before the 1972
Nixon visit to China.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.3) Pakistan and India
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 India as defining element in Pakistan‘s foreign policy
 Psychological cold war between the countries
 Trade takes place via Dubai
 Pakistan alleges Indian support for the insurgency in
Baluchistan (resource rich) and Indian funding for a
135-mile road connecting the Nimroz province
(Afghanistan) with the Iranian port of Chabahar
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.3) Pakistan and India
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 Recent crises between India and Pakistan with
international repercussions:
Nuclearization in 1998 (70-90 warheads)
 Kargil War in 1999
 Terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir, e.g. attack on State
Assembly, 1 October, 2001
 Attacks on Indian parliament, 13 December, 2001
 Mumbai attacks, 26 November, 2008 (173 dead)

Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.3) Pakistan and India
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 The Kashmir conflict:
 Line of Control: separates
Azad Kashmir and Jammu
& Kashmir
 Wars in 1947 and 1965,
limited conflict in 1999
 Large number of military
personnel stationed at
LoC
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
World Press Photo 2009:
Riots in Srinagar, Kashmir
35
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
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Official text: A man cradles a stone during
a pro-separatist demonstration in
Srinagar, India-administered Kashmir, on
23 January. Kashmir, which is over 60
percent Muslim, has been disputed by
India and Pakistan since the partition of
the subcontinent in 1947 and is currently
split between them. Since 1989, there has
been a growing Muslim separatist
movement against Indian control. Proseparatist rallies in India-administered
Kashmir are common.

People in the News: 1st prize singles,
Michele Borzoni, Italy, TerraProject
4.3) Pakistan and India
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 Attempts at institutionalization of dialogue
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Composite Dialogue
Confidence Building Measures (CBMs): high-level talks, easing visa
restrictions, restarting cricket matches
 Fear of Indian and Russian encirclement
 US-Indian nuclear deal (United States-India Nuclear Cooperation
Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act) October 2008:

Regarded as part of a strategic alliance against Pakistan
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.3) Pakistan and India
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 Current developments - BBC News, Thursday, June 2010
India and Pakistan pledge better relations
 Senior Indian and Pakistani diplomats who have met in Islamabad have
pledged to continue efforts to improve mutual relations and restore
confidence.
 India's foreign secretary Nirupama Rao met her Pakistani counterpart
Salman Bashir to decide the agenda for ministerial talks next month.
 Peace talks were put on hold after the Mumbai attacks of 2008, which India
blamed on the Pakistan-based militants.
 In February, the foreign secretaries held their first formal talks in Delhi.
 Before that India had regularly rebuffed Pakistani calls to resume a
substantive dialogue, saying Islamabad had not done enough to tackle
militants or bring the Mumbai attacks organisers to justice.
 Talks between Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna and and his Pakistani
counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi [will take place] in Islamabad on 15
July.
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.3) Pakistan and India
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The future of Indo-Pak relations?
 The Observer, Sunday 11 April 2010:
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Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik give India and Pakistan
a new reason to squabble
When Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik – an Indian tennis star
and Pakistan's cricket hero – fell in love, it offended Hindu
sensibilities and bolstered Muslim pride
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
4.4) The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC)
39
 Founded in 1985
 Membership includes 8
countries:

Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives,
Nepal, Pakistan, India and Sri
Lanka. Since April 2007,
Afghanistan
 No bilateral or contentious
issues to be discussed
 Achievements: forum for
talks between India and
Pakistan; face to face
contacts
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
5) Summary
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 Pakistan‘s strategic location
 Afghanistan
 Iran
 Central Asia
 Factors influencing Pakistan and regional security
 Domestic: Military rule vis-a-vis civilian government
 Communalism, sectarianism and separatism
 Terrorism (especially vis-a-vis Afghanistan and Kashmir)
 Pakistan‘s self-perception and status as nuclear power
 China: Pakistan‘s major strategic ally
 Scepticism about American reliability because of past experiences
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
5) Summary cont.
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Factors to consider for Pakistan policy behaviour
National security state
 Matrix of geopolitics, alliance and strategy
 Indian antagonism as defining factor
 China link
 Key players in government and society (triad)
 Previous policy
 Current economic and social problems
 Regional cooperation: SAARC?

Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security
Further Links
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South Asia Terrorism Portal:
 http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/index.ht
m
Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies:
 http://san-pips.com/
History of Pakistan:
 http://www.storyofpakistan.com/
South Asia Confidence Building Measures (CBM) –
Timeline 1988 – Present
 http://www.stimson.org/?SN=SA20060207948
Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security