Forecasting and Urban Planning: Introduction

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Growth and Development of Cities:
Week 5. Urban Spatial Structure
URBS 310
September 21, 2004
1
Urban Land Use Theory
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Agricultural Land Use Theory (Von
ThÜnen)
–
–
September 21, 2004
Early 1800s. A particular type of
production depends on three items: 1)
distance to the market (perishable
close to the market; more extensive
crops farther from the market) 2)
selling prices at the market 3) land rent
Specialize in producing the ag.
products yielding the highest land rent
(economic rent) return at the particular
location.
2
Urban Land Use Theory
•
Graphing Bid-Rent Curves
–
–
Economic rent (monetary return from
producing a particular good after all
costs were deducted)
Bid rent curve (relationship between
economic rent and distance from the
market)
September 21, 2004
3
Agricultural Rent Gradients
Economic Rent
75
50
25
0
0
5
10
15
Miles from the Market
September 21, 2004
4
Agricultural Rent Gradients
Economic Rent
75
Peas
50
25
Wheat
0
0
5
10
15
Miles from the Market
September 21, 2004
5
Urban Rent Gradients
100
Economic Rent
Commercial/Light Manufacturing
75
50
Residential
25
Industrial
0
0
5
10
15
Miles from the Market
September 21, 2004
6
Population Density Gradient
•
Negative Exponential Model
(Colin Clark)
– di = doe-bx
– ln di = ln do - bx
September 21, 2004
7
Employment Density Gradient
Employment Density
(per square mile)
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
0
3
6
9
12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
Distance from the CBD (in Miles)
September 21, 2004
8
Population Density Gradient
•
Modified Negative
Exponential (Bruce Newling)
– di = doe+bx-cx(^2)
– ln di = ln do + bx – cx2
September 21, 2004
9
Population Density Gradient
Population Density
(per square mile)
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27 30
33
36
39
42
45 48
Distance from the CBD (in Miles)
September 21, 2004
10
Population Density Gradient
•
•
Crater Effect: depressed
level of density in the center
Density Rim: the peak
September 21, 2004
11
Change in Population Density Gradient
Patterns in North American Cities
ln density
Time Period 1
Time Period 2
Time Period 3
Miles from the CBD
September 21, 2004
12
Three Models of Urban Land Use
•
Graphic prepared by Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
September 21, 2004
13
Concentric Zone Model
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
E.W. Burgess, a sociologist, a study of
Chicago, 1925. A set of concentric circles.
Zone 1: CBD
Zone 2: Factory, slum, ethnic community
(transition zone or gray zone)
Zone 3: Lower income working people’s
homes
Zone 4: Middle income housng
Zone 5: High income housing
Zone 10: Commuting
September 21, 2004
14
Sector Model
•
•
•
Homer Hoyt, a land economist, a study of
patterns in over 100 cities, 1939
Once similar land uses emerge around
the CBD, activities remain in the area and
extend over time in the same direction
(following rail, highway arteries, high or
llow ground, clustering on the same side
of the city).
High income housing areas are dominant
in urban growth.
September 21, 2004
15
Mutilple Nuclei Model
•
•
•
Chauncy Harris and Edward Ullman,
geographers, 1945.
Land uses evolve at several nodes
or focal points.
Each node has a special function –
commercial, industrial, residential.
September 21, 2004
16
Urban Realms Model
•
•
•
James Vance, 1964. Peter Muller &
Others Applied to LA Region &
greater NY
Pepperoni Pizza
Emergence of large self-sufficient
suburban sectors.
September 21, 2004
17
Social Area Analysis
•
•
•
Eshref Shevky, Marily Williams,a nd
Wendell Bell, sociologists, 1949.
A theory of social differentiation. This
theory shows how family characteristics,
economic status, and ethnic patterns
interrelate to produce distinct spatial
patterns within the city.
Use three constructs: social rank
(economic status), urbanization (family
status), and segregation (ethnic status).
September 21, 2004
18
Optional Assignment 4
(Due on 10/5)
1.
2.
•
Draw a chart of population density gradients for 2000 and
2030 using xy scatter function in MS Excel. Determine
whether the form of population density model is negative
exponential or modified negative exponential. Interpret the
change of the population density pattern between 2000 and
2030.
Draw a chart of employment density gradients for 2000 and
2030 using xy scatter function in MS Excel. Determine
whether the form of employment density model is negative
exponential or modified negative exponential. Interpret the
change of the employment density pattern between 2000
and 2030.
The excel data for assignment 4 are available in the class
webpage. Turn in 1 page answer in a MS Word format.
September 21, 2004
19
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