Cattle Outlook (title)
Ron Plain
April 22, 2015
Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly
Cents per Pound
700
650
10 monthly records in 2014
600
550
500
450
400
350
Source: USDA/ERS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
250
2000
300
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
Pounds
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
Source: USDA/ERS
2015f
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
150
U. S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014
Million Head
60
2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5%
First increase since 1995
55
50
45
40
Source: USDA/NASS
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
30
1945
35
U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S.
Production, monthly
Percent
20
18
Imports
16
Exports
14
12
10
8
6
4
Source: USDA/ERS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
2
Dollar Exchange Rate
USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and
meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.
CATTLE SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
725
675
625
575
525
475
2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%
2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%
425
375
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-08
04/17/15
Pounds
910
STEER DRESSED WEIGHT
Federally Inspected, Weekly
2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0%
2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
830
820
810
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-18
04/17/15
Thou. Head
150
140
TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%
2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-14
04/17/15
HEIFER SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
200
180
160
140
2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9%
2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
120
100
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-13
04/17/15
Cattle on Feed
Mil. Head
12.0
Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly
Mar 1 cattle on feed:
down 0.5%
11.5
2012
11.0
2013
10.5
2014
10.0
2015
9.5
JAN
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
JUL
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
$ Per Cwt.
185
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES
5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
175
165
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
85
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
04/13/15
Choice Steer Breakeven Price
S. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly
$ Per Cwt.
195
Breakeven
Projected Breakeven
175
155
Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.
135
115
Source: LMIC
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
75
2004
95
U.S. Commercial Beef Production
Million Pounds
Qtr 1
2013
2014
2015
6,172
5,868
5,660
----- % Change ----2013-14 2014-15.
- 4.9% - 3.5%
.
Qtr 2
6,516
6,183
6,240*
- 5.1% +0.9%
.
Qtr 3
6,609
6,178
6,210*
- 6.4% +0.5%
.
Qtr 4
6,423
6,023
6,100*
- 6.2% +1.3%
.
Year
25,720 24,252
24,210*
*forecast
- 5.7% - 0.2%
5 Area Slaughter Steer Prices
Choice Steers Per Live Hundredweight
2012
2013
2014
2015
Qtr 1
$125.29
$125.52
$146.34
$162.43
Qtr 2
$121.91
$124.95
$147.82
$162-168*
Qtr 3
$119.69
$122.30
$158.49
$157-169*
Qtr 4
$125.54
$130.77
$165.60
$157-171*
Year
$122.86
$125.89
$154.56
$160-167*
*forecast
Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price,
Monthly Average 2000-2015
Dollars per Cwt.
180
Cash
160
Futures
140
120
100
80
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
60
OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price,
Monthly Average 2000-2015
Dollars per Cwt.
250
Cash
230
Futures
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
70
Estimated Average Cow Calf Returns
Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
$ Per Cow
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014