CATTLENOMICS
Derrell S. Peel
Agricultural Economics
Oklahoma State University
PART 1:
INDUSTRY DEMOGRAPHICS
U.S. All Cattle and Calves
Since 1867
140000
120000
80000
60000
40000
20000
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
00
18
90
18
80
0
18
70
1,000 Head
100000
TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE
U.S., January 1
Mil. Head
140
1938-49
130
1949-58
120
1958-67
110
1967-79
1979-90
100
1990-02
90
80
70
60
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
C-N-40
02/11/02
Oklahoma All Cattle and Calves
Since 1867
7000
6000
1000 Head
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
January 1, 2002 (1,000 Head)
All Cattle and Calves
Cattle on Feed
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TX
KS
NE
CA
OK
MO
SD
IA
WI
CO
13,600
6,600
6,400
5,200
5,200
4,350
3,950
3,550
3,300
3,050
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TX
KS
NE
CO
IA
CA
OK
SD
ID
AZ
2,890
2,530
2,370
1,210
955
480
365
355
335
305
January 1, 2002 (1,000 Head)
Beef Cows
Beef Heifers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TX
MO
OK
NE
SD
KS
MT
KY
TN
ND
5,440
2,060
1,933
1,932
1,792
1,485
1,451
1,075
1,060
1,008
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TX
MT
OK
SD
NE
MO
KS
TN
KY
750
370
330
300
285
280
230
175
170
WY/AR 165
January 1, 2002
Feeder Supply
Stocker Ratio
(1,000 Head)
. . . . .
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TX
OK
KS
MO
NE
CA
SD
IA
MN
WI
3,740
2,375
2,135
1,620
1,620
1,370
1,280
1,075
940
890
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.74
1.23
1.44
0.79
0.89
0.69
0.69
0.96
1.05
0.65
Stocker Ratio =
Feeder Supply /
Calf Crop
U.S. Avg = 0.75
U.S. Average Stocker Ratio,
January 1, 2002
0.84
0.82
0.8
0.78
0.76
0.74
0.72
0.7
0.68
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
N
or
th
So we
ut st
h
N wes
.R
t
oc
S. kie
R
oc s
k
N ies
.P
la
S. ins
Pl
a
G ins
.L
ak
M es
id
w
es
t
G
ul
f
A
So
pp
al uth
a
E. chi
Se a n
ab
N oar
or d
th
ea
st
Regional Stocker Ratio, January 1 2002
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Stocker Ratio, January 1
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
KS
OK
NE
IA
MO
TX
N
or
th
So we
ut st
h
N wes
.R
t
oc
S. kie
R
oc s
k
N ies
.P
la
S. ins
Pl
a
G ins
.L
ak
M es
id
w
es
t
G
ul
f
A
So
pp
al uth
a
E. chi
Se a n
ab
N oar
or d
th
ea
st
Regional Share of Beef Cows,
January 1, 2002
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Beef Heifer Retention Rate
18.5%
18.0%
17.5%
17.0%
16.5%
16.0%
15.5%
15.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
N
or
th
So we
ut st
h
N wes
.R
t
oc
S. kie
R
oc s
k
N ies
.P
la
S. ins
Pl
a
G ins
.L
ak
M es
id
w
es
t
G
ul
f
A
So
pp
al uth
a
E. chi
Se a n
ab
N oar
or d
th
ea
st
Regional Share of Beef Replacement Heifers,
Jan. 1 2002
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
N
or
th
So we
ut st
h
N wes
.R
t
oc
S. kie
R
oc s
k
N ies
.P
la
S. ins
Pl
a
G ins
.L
ak
M es
id
w
es
t
G
ul
f
A
So
pp
al uth
a
E. chi
Se a n
ab
N oar
or d
th
ea
st
Regional Beef Heifer Retention Rates,
Jan. 1 2002
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Beef Heifer Retention Rate
26.0%
24.0%
22.0%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
U.S.
N Rockies
S Plains
N Plains
South
Appa
N
or
th
So wes
ut t
h
N wes
.R
oc t
S. kie
R
oc s
k
N ies
.P
la
i
S. ns
Pl
a
G ins
.L
a
M kes
id
w
es
t
G
ul
f
A
So
pp
al uth
a
E. ch
Se ian
ab
o
N ar
or d
th
ea
st
Regional Share of Feeder Supplies
Outside of Feedlots, Jan. 1 2002
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Southern Plains Feeder Share
30.0%
29.5%
29.0%
28.5%
28.0%
27.5%
27.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Regional Feeder Share
16.0%
15.0%
14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Midwest
N Plains
PART 2:
PRICE RELATIONSHIPS
Feeder and Fed Steer Prices,
1992-2001
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
425 lb
625 lb
775 lb
Fed
Seasonal Price Pattern
1.06
1.04
1.02
1
0.98
0.96
JA
N
FE
B
M
A
R
A
PR
M
A
Y
JU
N
JU
L
A
U
G
SE
P
O
C
T
N
O
V
D
EC
0.94
4/500 LB
6/700 LB
7/800 LB
FED
450 Lb. Stocker Buy-Sell Seasonal Price
Pattern – 300 Lbs Gain
1.06
1.04
1.02
BUY
SELL
1
0.98
0.96
JA
N
FE
B
M
A
R
A
PR
M
A
Y
JU
N
JU
L
A
U
G
SE
P
O
C
T
N
O
V
D
EC
0.94
Buy Month
450 Lb. Stocker Buy-Sell Seasonal Price
Pattern – 200 Lbs Gain
1.06
1.04
1.02
BUY
SELL-F
SELL-S
1
0.98
0.96
JA
N
FE
B
M
A
R
A
PR
M
A
Y
JU
N
JU
L
A
U
G
SE
P
O
C
T
N
O
V
D
EC
0.94
Buy Month
550 Lb. Stocker Buy-Sell Seasonal
Pattern – 200 Lbs Gain
1.06
1.04
1.02
BUY
SELL-F
SELL-S
1
0.98
0.96
JA
N
FE
B
M
A
R
A
PR
M
A
Y
JU
N
JU
L
A
U
G
SE
P
O
C
T
N
O
V
D
EC
0.94
Buy Month
Feedlot Buy-Sell Seasonal Price Pattern
1.04
1.03
1.02
1.01
1
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
JA
N
FE
B
M
A
R
A
PR
M
A
Y
JU
N
JU
L
A
U
G
SE
P
O
C
T
N
O
V
D
EC
BUY
SELL
Buy Month
Steer-Heifer Price Relationship
Steer-Heifer Price Relationship
OKC, 1992-2001
• (Steer – Heifer)
• $/cwt by weight
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
775
15.47
13.61
11.79
9.77
8.16
6.81
5.83
5.39
5.27
• Heifer Price as % of
Steer Price
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
775
84.6
85.5
86.5
88.2
88.8
90.1
92.1
93.6
93.9
Heifer Price as % of Steer
Price
Steer-Heifer Price Relationship
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88
0.86
AVG
+1 SD
-1 SD
0.84
0.82
0.8
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775
Animal Weight
Seasonal Steer-Heifer Price Patterns
96%
94%
92%
90%
425 LB
725 LB
88%
86%
84%
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
82%
Steer-Heifer Price Relationship:
Cyclical Effects
96%
94%
92%
90%
425 lb
725 lb
88%
86%
84%
82%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Price-Weight Relationships
Steer Price/Weight Relationship,
OKC, 1992-2001
125
$ per Cwt.
115
105
AVG
+1 SD
-1 SD
95
85
75
65
55
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875
Animal Weight
Steer Price/Weight Relationship:
Cyclical Effects
125
$ per Cwt.
115
AVG
+1 SD
-1 SD
2001
1999
1995
1996
105
95
85
75
65
55
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875
Animal Weight
Steer Price/Weight Relationship:
Seasonal Effects
125
$ per Cwt.
115
AVG
+1 SD
-1 SD
MAR
OCT
105
95
85
75
65
55
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875
Animal Weight
Percent of Price
Steer Price Slide (Rollback)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875
Animal Weight
Working Price Slide
• Price Adjustment Factor
(PAF) as % of Price
– up to 500 lbs 8.8
– 500-550 lbs
7.4
– 550-600 lbs
6.4
– 600-650 lbs
4.9
– 650-800 lbs
3.7
– > 800 lbs
5.4
• (PAF/100) x Price ($/cwt)
= Price Adjustment
($/cwt)
• Example:
Base weight = 450 lbs
Base price = 105 $/cwt
Actual weight = 480 lbs
Price slide = (105*0.088)=9.24
Sale price: 105- (9.24*
(480-450)/100) = 102.23
Cents/lb Gain
Value of Gain,
1992 - 2001
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
50 lbs gain
200 lbs gain
375
425
475
525
Beginning Weight
575
625
Value of Gain
(Based on 200 lbs of Gain)
65
Cents/lb
60
55
50
45
40
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
375 LB
475 LB
575 LB