Poverty and Social Exclusion: What do we
know, and what do we need to know?
Luca Barbone
Director, Poverty Reduction and Development Effectiveness
Department
World Bank
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Why measure poverty and social exclusion
Developments ın poverty measurement and
methodologıcal challenges
Problems in collecting data with regularity
Practical aspects of organizing monitoring at the
national and local levels
Practical aspects of organizing monitoring at the local
level
Page 2
1. Why measure poverty and social
exclusion?
The new aid architecture and country-based
development model:



goes beyond the purely economic model of
poverty
addresses the relationship between structural,
institutional, human, & macroeconomic aspects of
development
emphasizes the links between objectives and the
actions needed to reach them – and the
importance of clear, monitorable indicators of
progress
Page 3
The country-based development model
Poverty Reduction Strategy process
Understanding the
nature of poverty
Choosing poverty reduction
objectives
Defining strategy for poverty
reduction and growth including:
- Macro and structural policies
- Governance
- Sectoral policies and programs
- Realistic costing and funding
Implementation of programs
and policies
Monitoring outcomes and
evaluating impact
Page 4
Actors and
participatory processes
including:
- Central government
agencies and interministerial groups
- Parliaments and
other
representative
structures
- The public, including
the poor
- Civil society
- External partners
Architecture to improve aid
effectiveness
D
O
N
O
R
S
Consultations
Poverty
Analysis
Link to the
budget
PRSP
Sector
Diagnostics
Policies and
programs
Assistance Strategies
Donor programs:
Projects, including budget support
Advisory and Analytical Work
Support for
analysis and
consultations
Feedback
mechanisms
Page 5
Monitoring
C
O
U
N
T
R
Y
So what should be monitored?
Shared growth and equality of opportunity
require a broader concept of poverty that
encompasses non-economic dimensions such
as:






access to opportunities
empowerment
subjective well-being
health, education, shelter
gender equality
participation and “voice”
Page 6
2. Developments in poverty
measurement
Despite consensus that poverty is multi-dimensional, the
expanded definition is still moving “from the periphery
to the core”:
 1980s – inclusion of nutrition, education and health
 1990s – Human Development Indicators
 Since 2000 – centrality of “well-being” and
empowerment
 CWIQ – annual measure of access, usage, &
satisfaction with services to give advance warning
of future impact
 Poverty maps – address spatial correlates of
poverty (isolation/accessibility, market access)
Page 7
But -- measuring non-economic dimensions
involves methodological challenges
Indicators should be:
 relevant to policy makers and decision makers
 cheap and easy to collect
 relevant to interventions
 unambiguous measures of progress
Finding non-economic indicators is more complicated
because they:
 may change more slowly than economic indicators
 can be more difficult to collect
 may require special surveys
 Are more context-specific and less “universal”
 may be less tangible and quantifiable
 …hence perceived as less objective and rigorous
Page 8
Examples of new approaches:
poverty maps and policies
Overlays used to identify correlates of poverty
 Sri Lanka: Poverty and isolation/accessibility
 South Africa: Containing a cholera epidemic
 Tanzania: Changes in poverty and market access
 Ecuador: Compare poverty maps at two points in time.
… coordinate programs, and improve targeting
 Cambodia: WFP combined with maps of nutrition,
infrastructure, and vulnerability to flooding & drought to
identify potential areas for WFP programs.
 Morocco: Maps suggested different mechanism for urban vs.
rural areas.
 Vietnam: Validated targeting approach of Program 135.
 Mexico: PROGRESA & Oportunidades
 South Africa: Municipal grant amounts based on estimated
no. of poor
Page 9
Page 10
Tracking the impact of education of poverty
and mobility
Poverty and access to education:
 Importance of secondary education for
poverty reduction grew in 1990s
 Access for poorer households remains low
 But education has potential to enlarge
opportunities for mobility out of low paying
agriculture sector.
Page 11
Tracking impact of secondary education on productivity and
mobility
Change in benefit incidence for secondary education, 1990s
50
47
40
42
Poorest quintile
Richest quintile
37
32
29
30
26
23
17
20
19
20
13
11
10
9
6
5
5
0
Early 90s
Late 90s
Uganda
Early 90s
Late 90s
Ghana
Early 90s
Late 90s
Indonesia
Early 90s
Late 90s
Vietnam
Source: For Uganda, M puga and Canagarahah 2004; for Ghana, Canagarajah and Ye 2001; for Indonesia, World Bank 1993 and Lanjouw, Pradhan, Saadah,
Sayed and Sparrow 2001; for Vietnam, World Bank 2000.
Page 12
Tracking inclusion in financial markets



Systematic information on household
financial assets in developing countries
remains sparse
To date, tracking access relies on
combining data from HHS and data on
penetration of financial institutions
Findings: financial inclusion of the poor still
a challenge
Page 13
Financial inclusion of the poor…still a challenge
Page 14
Selecting indicators to monitor
empowerment
Definitions focus on choice, participation, control
and influence, ownership, voice and means of
overcoming oppression
Challenging to measure because:
 Not a unitary concept: intrinsic/
instrumental, universal/ context specific,
individual/ collective, subjective/objective?
 multiple levels and dimensions
 not directly observable, but must be
measured through proxies
Page 15
Monitoring the impact of reforms on
empowerment and social inclusion
Measuring Empowerment and Social Inclusion in Nepal
 tracked effects of decentralization policy and rural
water supply and sanitation project on gender, caste
and ethnic relations
 found that greater focus on livelihood interventions was
called for to reduce influence of caste and ethnicity
Impact Evaluation of Honduras Community-Based Education
 monitored impact of reforms on community
empowerment with respect to influencing school
management
 identified necessity of long-term government
commitment to reducing power imbalances between
elites and indigenous population within communities
Page 16
3. Problems in collecting data with regularity







Incomplete administrative data (electoral registers,
identity cards)
Selecting indicators reflects a long social process
Under-representation of “invisible” populations
Difficulties in coordination, duplication, redundancies
Few incentives to participate or relinquish space
Weak demand (interest?) from decision-makers
Without common purpose, formal obligations don’t
work
Page 17
4. Practical aspects of organizing
monitoring at the national level






Choice of institutional lead critical - more effective
if a single agency close to center of government
Champion important – but dangerous to tie
system to a personality
Coordination is the greatest challenge: process,
advocacy, political leadership critical
Promote monitoring within line ministries; change
incentives and capacity
National statistical agencies: ensure
complementarity with existing systems and plans
Increase dissemination, training/statistical
literacy
Page 18
Practical aspects of monitoring at the
local level
Involve local governments:
 limit indicators to reduce burden and increase
compliance
 Central quality control mechanism
 Support and capacity-building, provide
feedback
 Important that those responsible for collecting
data understand how they will be used
 Build on local civil society, encourage local
accountability and dissemination
Page 19
Thank you!
www.worldbank.org/poverty
Page 20