E- Book Trends: An Industry Analyst’s
Viewpoint
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Some are born great, some
achieve greatness, and
some have greatness thrust
upon them…
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Reader Devices Breath-of-Life
• Early days of PDF on screen
• Now dedicated, networked reading
devices
• Amazon – Oprah – Bookclub
The Story of Edgar Sawtelle
20% of its sales via Kindle
• 35% of titles sold via Kindle (units not $)
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Definition
No standard
“Downloadable units of digital book
content that can be read on a variety of
devices”
• Discrete units of content, often based
on previously print content
• NOT a website derived from a book
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E-Book Readers
• E Ink
•Print-like reading experience
•Power only used to change page
• Purchase titles online
•Networked, Interactive
• Read your own documents
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Sales of E-Book Readers Taking Off
2008 Estimates
Amazon Kindle 2 ($360; £240)
380,000 – 500,000 units *
Sony Reader $350 / £230
250,000 - 300,000 units *
iRex iLiad $700 / £470
10,000 – 50,000 units
Apple iPhone/iPod Touch +
Stanza (free app)
395,000 downloads
(5,000 per day) ***
Sources:
* DIGITIMES, Citigroup estimates, Outsell estimates
** Outsell estimates
*** Lexcycle, producer of the Stanza application
Typical prices shown for latest models; may vary depending on supplier
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
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And the Arms Race Continues…
Amazon Kindle Dx ($489; £340)
9.7” screen
Newspapers, e.g. NYT, subsidise devices
iRex 1000 $649 / £599
10.2” screen;
Stylus & annotation
Plastic Logic $350 / £230
13.0” screen (A4); gesture interface
Publisher Program – e.g. Hearst, FT
Typical prices shown for latest models; may vary depending on supplier
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Not Yet Mass Market
• Outsell’s end user survey 2008.
% of respondents owning…
Sony Reader 1.2%
Kindle
0.9%
iPhone
10.7%
• Early technology; high prices
Source: Outsell Inc.
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
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And Other Devices Compete
• Explosive success of multi-purpose
handhelds & phones slowing
adoption of single-use devices
• Amazon’s 240,000 titles now available
for iPhone/iPod Touch
• Mobile version of Google’s Books
Search Service…1.5 million public
domain titles
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E-Book Formats & Standards
•EPUB preferred by publishers
•Kindle, Mobi, PDF entrenched
•Amazon dropping Microsoft & Adobe eBook
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Revenues derived from the sale of content
to e-book devices will grow rapidly....
2008-2011
CAGR 38.4%
vs. Information
Industry 4.5%
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Segmentation by Geography....
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Segmentation by Genre....
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Students – Small Part of Market…
• Lack of content availability
• Faculty unwilling to recommend over
print
• Publishers’ other
online alternatives
compete
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…But Potential Exists
• JISC National E-Books Observatory
• 36 Textbooks, 127 HEIs, 48,000
respondents from two surveys
• 60% use e-books
• Via Library (46%)
• Free via Internet (43%)
• Purchased (5%)
• 37% consulted 3 or more e-books in prior
month
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Student Usage Habits
• Problem-centric: Dip in & out
• Essay deadlines drive uneven usage
• Unlimited access models preferred
• 24/7 flexible access on & off campus
• Use ebooks to locate relevant content
then print (subset) for reading
• No cannibalization of print sales!
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Also – a librarians perspective *
• Address Student needs
• DRM loathed
• Memory sticks widely used
• Online titles available simultaneous with
print (sometimes version out of sync)
• MARC records essential
• Simple to access & navigate
• Offline use (seek then print)
* - from STM eBooks Seminar Apr 2009; anecdotal evidence & student survey
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Business Model Experimentation
•
•
•
•
•
•
Collections
Rental
One-off
Unlimited access
Per-chapter
Custom books
Blurring between
• “Book” (discrete unit)
• “Journal” (subscription)
• “Database” (search)
Springer
•
•
•
•
DRM-free; unlimited access
Institutional Subscription
Collections only
FTE-based discounting on print list
Safari Books Online
• Packages of titles
• Downloadable chapters
• Subscriptions
Taylor & Francis
• Rental, One-off, Custom Books
• Subs, packages, per title
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
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The E-Book’s Time Has Come
Capabilities
+
Technology
+
Content
=
Open for business!
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
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A final thought….
“It is not the strongest of the
species that survive, nor the
most intelligent, but rather
the one most responsive to
change”
Charles Darwin
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