Rapporteur Comments:
“The Legacy of the War on Poverty: Implications
for the Future of Anti-Poverty Policies”
Robert Haveman
Institute for Research on Poverty
La Follette School of Public Affairs
Economics Department
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Research | Training | Policy | Practice
Celebrating a 50 Year Anniversary
• This conference is the second designed to celebrate
50 years since the start of the War on Poverty.
• The first was held at Hunter College a month or so
ago. “Revisting the Great Society”
http://roosevelthouse.hunter.cuny.edu/lbjconference2012/
• That conference had more prominent and more
interesting participants and lots better stories.
– George McGovern
– Robert Caro
--Walter Mondale --Bill Moyers --Joe Califano
--John Lewis
--Lucy Baines Johnson
• It was far less substantive.
The LBJ-1960s: A Miracle in
Policymaking
• Economic Opportunity Act (1964)
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Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO)
--Job Corps
Volunteers in Service to America (VISTA)
--Upward Bound
--Head Start
Legal Services
--Neighborhood Youth Corps
--Community Action Program
EO grants; Work-Study program --Neighborhood Health Centers
Small Business Loan --Rural, migrant worker, remedial education programs
• Civil Rights Act (1964, 1968)
--Food Stamp Act (1964)
• Amendments to Social Security Act (1965)—Medicare,
Medicaid
• Elementary /Secondary Education Act (1965)—Title I
• Higher Education Act (1965)
• Executive Order 11246 (1965)—prohibiting employment discrimination
• Older Americans Act (1965)
--Child Nutrition Act (1966)
• Federal Fair Housing Act (1968)
Major Themes of this Conference
• Few true successes (+ net benefits) among WoP programs;
those targeted on the elderly are an exception.
• Efforts targeted on most disadvantaged indicate
disappointing impacts.
• Crowd out, mismanagement and complexity/opacity have
plagued several programs.
• Finding substantial benefits requires studying impacts
beyond primary goals (e.g., socio-emotional).
• Complementary program efforts have made policy more
pro-poor than without this synergy.
More Major Themes
• Early assessments of some WoP programs were largely
negative, but later (and better) evaluations indicate
positive net benefits (Head Start, pre-school child care,
health, short-term training).
• Programs need to be focused on specific needs of target
groups.
• Aid tied to desired behavior is likely more effective than
institutional support (housing, higher education).
• Fade out of early effects not unusual among programs,
and the reasons why are puzzling.
• Perceived negative work effects have set stage for later
work-oriented policies.
After All of This, Has Opportunity Become
More Equal In America?
• It is one thing to legislate and enforce propoor and non-discrimination policies, and the
nation has done this.
• However, it is far more difficult task for public
efforts to attain more equal opportunities, let
alone more equal outcomes.
Some Indicators of Equal Opportunity
• Labor Market Opportunities—Little sign of opportunity increase
– B/W LFP male rates--.94 in 1965; .93 in 2012
– B/W male unemployment rates—2.2 in 1965; 2.1 in 2012
• Racial Earnings Gap--narrowed a bit
– 1968—black/white earnings ratio about 70 percent.
– 2010—ratio about 78 percent.
(Attributed to improvements in overall school quality for blacks, expanded public sector employment, and
equal employment opportunity.)
• Racial Income Gap--actually increased
– 1974—median black/white income ratio was 63 percent.
– Mid-2000s, ratio fell to about 58 percent.
(Decrease in ratio attributed to growth in black mother only families.)
• Ratio of Black/White Poverty Rate--little changed; about 3.5
• Income mobility
– One-third of black children from middle-income families grow up to have
higher incomes than their parents; two-thirds among whites.
Some More Indicators of Equal Opportunity
• Test Score Gaps
– Significant declines in racial gaps in adolescent test scores in the 1980s, but
little since.
• Race/Income College Attendance/Enrollment Rates
– Some narrowing in income/racial gaps until late-1970s, but little since.
• School Segregation—Progress toward desegregation has been uneven and
limited
– Blacks experienced little progress in desegregation until federal
legislation/judicial decisions in the 1960s. Large gains, especially in the South.
– Progress continued until late-1980s, when federal court decisions and political
developments led to the resegregation of Black students.
– Percentage of black students enrolled in schools with 90-100% nonwhite
enrollments
1968--64 percent (about 100 percent in South) 1980s--about 33 percent
1990s--about 37 percent
2000s--More than 40 percent
Still More Indicators of Equal Opportunity
• Overt discrimination--now relatively rare, and more subtle
• Racially-motivated hate crimes--fallen since statistics kept
– 1995—61 percent of hate crimes racially motivated; 2006—52 percent
• Corporate Board memberships
– African Americans hold less than 1 percent of the senior-level corporate
positions in America's 1000 largest companies
– 3 percent of board seats of Fortune 1000 companies held by an African
American; 2 percent held by Hispanics.
But, Notable Increase for Minorities in
One Area!
• Incarceration
– At the time of the Brown decision (1954) there were 100,000 AfricanAmericans in prison; now there are 900,000; a nine-fold increase.
– Today, about 40 percent of young black male high school dropouts
are in prison or jail compared to 10 percent of young white male
dropouts.
– African Americans comprise just 6 percent of the overall population in
Wisconsin, yet they comprise 43 percent of the state’s prison
population.
But, the lack of notable success is not
for lack of trying
• Government has surely done its part in attempting to reduce
poverty
– Enormous growth in Food Stamps--now about 60 million recipients,
up from 30 million in 2007.
– Medicaid spending has grown rapidly, in line with coverage/access.
– SSI and EITC have also grown rapidly.
– System reduces poverty rate from 29 percent to about 14 percent.
• But Public Efforts have been swimming upstream.
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Adverse changes in family structure
Increasingly subtle discrimination in both housing and the workplace
Persistent lousy learning conditions in inner city schools
A very uncooperative market system that has generated increased
earnings and income inequality, with staggering growth
at the very top
In Sum
• Support of programs providing housing,
employment and educational opportunities to
low income and minorities has achieved some
successes.
• Yet, poverty rates have not fallen markedly,
and racial gaps in earnings, incomes, assets,
school achievement scores (among others)
have shown very small gains, at best.
Big Clouds on the Horizon
• Today, 2/3rds to 3/4ths of those polled oppose affirmative
action in public and private sector hiring, promotion and
college entry.
• Employment prospects for disadvantaged have eroded, and
little support for targeting increased workforce
developments on them.
• More insidious, though largely invisible, is the role of very
conservative moneyed interests in supporting efforts to:
– reduce public social spending
– erode trade union influence
– undermine efforts to increase racial diversity—in schools, housing,
and the workplace.
More Clouds
• The structure of the future economy and
social/economic policies are unclear.
• Future policy needs to do more than defend
and extend existing public income support
policies and pro-poor, equal opportunity
efforts.
• The direction of future policy is the million
dollar question.
• I’m not optimistic, but then I’m from Wisconsin.