INTERNATIONAL
CONVENTION
WORLD FEDERATION OF TOURIST
GUIDE ASSOCIATIONS
WFTGA 2013
Macau, China 14-18 January 2013
Mr. Márcio Favilla L. de Paula
Executive Director, Competitiveness,
External Relations and Partnerships
UNWTO
Results 2011
International Tourist Arrivals
990 million
+5.0%
International Tourism Receipts
(BOP Travel)
US$ 1,035 billion (euro 740 bn)
+3.9% (real terms)
+
International passenger transport
(BOP Transport, passenger)
US$ 203 billion (euro 144 bn)
www.unwto.org/facts
Inbound tourism: World
International tourist arrivals, 1995-2011* (million)
International tourist arrivals (million)
US$ 1.035 bn
International tourism receipts (BOP Travel, US$ billion)
1000
Int. passenger transport (BOP Transp, pass, US$ billion)
900
845
755
800
674
600
528
560
586
602
673
693
799
684
919
941
883
941
858
990 mn
928
853
744
625
679
634
533
400
403
437
436
200
85
96
92
443
95
457
97
476
98
466
93
485
95
101
121
133
144
169
186
US$ 203 bn
155
174
0
1995
1997
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011*
International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World
growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely
11
9
8
7
% change over previous year
‘Great
recession’
: receipts
more
affected
and slower
to recover
11S, SARS,
economic
downturn:
receipts more
affected
Asian financial
and economic
crisis: receipts
grew slower
10
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
International tourist arrivals
-5
International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
*/1
0
'1
1
/0
9
'1
0
/0
8
'0
9
/0
7
'0
8
/0
6
'0
7
/0
5
'0
6
/0
4
'0
5
/0
3
'0
4
/0
2
'0
3
/0
1
'0
2
/0
0
'0
1
/9
9
'0
0
/9
8
'9
9
/9
7
'9
8
/9
6
'9
7
/9
5
'9
6
/9
4
'9
5
/9
3
'9
4
/9
2
'9
3
/9
1
'9
2
/9
0
'9
1
'9
0
/8
9
-6
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM 2011*
International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%)
International Tourist Arrivals (ITA)
990 million
International Tourism Receipts (ITR)
US$ 1,035 billion
Europe
ITA: 509 million (51%)
ITR: US$ 464 billion (45%)
Middle East
ITA: 56 million (6%)
ITR: US$ 47 bn (5%)
Americas
ITA: 157 million (16%)
ITR: US$ 199 billion
(19%)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Africa
ITA: 50 million (5%)
ITR:US$ 33 billion (3%)
Asia and the Pacific
ITA: 218 million (22%)
ITR: US$ 291 billion
(28%)
Results
2012
www.unwto.org/facts
International tourism continues to grow strongly
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution
World
(% change)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
+2.1%
2008
-3.9%
+6.6%
+5.0%
2009
2010
2011
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
+4.1%
2012*
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution
Asia and the Pacific
(% change)
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
+1.1%
-1.6%
2008
2009
+13.2%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
2010
+6.4%
2011
+7.3%
2012*
Emerging destinations suffered less in
the crisis and recovered quicker
International Tourist Arrivals
10
(% change)
9.3
8.2
8
6
5.2
5.1
4.4
5.2 4.9
3.6
4
4.6
2
0
Advanced economies
Emerging economies
-0.3
-2
-4
-3.1
-4.5
-6
07/06
08/07
09/08
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
10/09
11/10
12*/11 YTD
2012: positive growth in all regions except ME
International Tourist Arrivals
(% change over same period of the previous year)
12
10
10
8
5.0
5
4
4.1
4
8
7
8
5
3
7
7
5
4
3
1
2
10
9
9
8
6
12
11
3
6
4
4
3
1
0
0
-2
-1
-4
-6
11/10
-8
12*/11 January - August
-7
-10
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
t
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s
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Mi
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ha
sa
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rth
Af
Af
ric
a
ric
a
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-9
International tourism: projection full year 2012
2011
Forecast 2012 YTD 2012
(Full year) (done January) (Jan.-Aug.)
World
+5.0%
3% to 4%
4.1%
Europe
+6.7%
2% to 4%
3.4%
Asia and the Pacific
+6.4%
4% to 6%
7.3%
Americas
+4.2%
2% to 4%
3.6%
Africa
+0.3%
4% to 6%
6.1%
Middle East
-7.0%
0% to 5%
-1.4%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Outlook: World
Forecast
2012: 3% to 4%
International tourist arrivals
10.3
12
10
7.9
8
change (%)
2013: 2% to 4%
5.9
6.0
6.5
6.4
4.6
6
2.9
4
2.1
2
0
-2
-0.1
-4
-1.6
-3.9
-6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism towards 2030
International arrivals to reach
1.4 billion in 2020 and 1.8 billion by 2030
International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, million
2,000
Average annual growth
2010-2030: +3.3%
+ 43 million
1,750
1,500
1.8 bn
1,250
1.4 bn
1,000
750
1 bn
500
250
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Growth in international tourism will continue,
but at a more moderate pace
International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
12
10
10
9
9
8
Average annual growth
9
7
4
4
4
3
3
2
0
3
6
7
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
-2
-4
7
6
6
6
2010 – 2030 : 3.3%
8
7
0
2010 2020
3.8 %
-2
Average annual growth
Average annual growth
1980 – 1995: 4.4% 1995 – 2010:
-6
3.9%2000/'99
1980/'79
1985/'84
1990/'89
1995/'94
2005/'04
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
2020 2030
2.9%
-4
2010/'09
2015/'14
2020/'19
2025/'24
2030/'29
International tourist arrivals to increase
by 43 million a year on average
International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
80
Average growth
70
2010 – 2030 : +43 mn
60
58
56
49
45 45
39
40
30
25
20
26
22
21 20
20
16
15
20
10
4
0
0
27
22
13
8
33
28
0
-1
-2
2010 2020
+42 mn
-11
-20
Average growth
Average growth
1980 – 1995: +17 mn
1995 – 2010: +28 mn
2020 2030
+ 45
mn
-35
-40
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Emerging economies destinations to surpass advanced
destinations by 2015
Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies
International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,250
1,037 mn
1,000
emerging economies
552 mn
750
523 mn
advanced economies
500
772 mn
250
540 mn
457 mn
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East
and Africa to increase their shares
1980 (277 mn)
Middle East
Africa
3%
Americas
23%
3%
2010 (940 mn)
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
8%
16%
Asia and the Pacific
Middle East
22%
6%
Europe
63%
2030 (1.8 bn)
Africa
Americas
5%
Asia and the Pacific
14%
30%
Middle East
8%
Europe
51%
Africa
7%
Europe
41%
Asia and the Pacific will also be the
outbound region that grows most
Outbound tourism by region of origin
International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
900
Europe
800
832 mn
700
509 mn
600
Asia and the Pacific
500
541 mn
400
205 mn
265 mn
300
Americas
160 mn
200
100
81 mn
Middle East
37 mn
Africa
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
30 mn
2010
2015
2020
2025
90 mn
2030
Asia and the Pacific will gain most
of the new arrivals
Inbound tourism by region of destination
International Tourist Arrivals, million
800
Europe
700
744 mn
600
475 mn
Asia and the Pacific
500
535 mn
400
248 mn
204 mn
300
Americas
150 mn
200
Middle East
61 mn
100
149 mn
Africa
0
1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
50 mn
2015
2020
2025
134 mn
2030
Emerging
markets
Growth: Driven by emerging destinations
600
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
550
500
450
million
400
350
300
250
200
advanced economies
150
emerging economies
100
50
0
1980
1985
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2011*
Growth: Driven by emerging destinations (share)
100
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
90
advanced economies
emerging economies
80
share (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1985
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2011*
Most arrivals within own region
1.000
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
900
To emerging economies from other region
800
To emerging economies from same region
To advanced economies from other region
700
To advanced economies from same region
million
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1980
1985
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Diversification of destinations
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
1950
Share
United States
Canada
Italy
France
Switzerland
71%
1970
Share
Italy
Canada
France
Spain
United States
43%
1990
Share
France
United States
Spain
Italy
Austria
39%
2011
Share
France
United States
China
Spain
Italy
31%
13%
6
7
8
9
10
Ireland
Austria
Spain
17%
Germany
United Kingdom
Austria
Germany
Switzerland
22%
Yugoslavia
United Kingdom
Mexico
Germany
United Kingdom 18%
Canada
China
Turkey
United Kingdom
Germany
Malaysia
Mexico
11
12
13
14
15
Norway
Argentina
Mexico
Netherlands
Denmark
9%
Hungary
Czechoslovakia
Belgium
10%
Bulgaria
Romania
Greece
Portugal
Switzerland
Yugoslav SFR
Malaysia
Austria
Russian Federation
Hong Kong (China) 11%
Ukraine
Thailand
Others
3%
Others
Others
Total
25 million
25%
166 million
9%
34%
436 million
Others
45%
990 million
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Average annual growth: 2000-2011*
International tourist arrivals (% a year 2000-2011*)
10
9
8
7
7,9
7,5
7,2
6,5
6
5
4
3
2
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
6,4
6,0
4,9
4,7
3,9
3,6
3,1
2,8
1,8
1,5
1,3
1,0
1
0
Emerging markets characteristics
• Sizeable population → still limited number taking
part in international tourism → huge growth
potential
• Economies rapid economic growth → disposable
incomes increase
• A relative big share of this increase will be spent on
tourism (domestic as well as international)
• Emerging middle classes:
– Growing proportion of population able to take
part and taking part in tourism
• Increasing frequency of existing travelers
• Increased competition →diversification strategies
World’s Top Economies in
2030: BRICS on the spot
Country GDP 2010 (USD trn)
1 USA
14.6
2 China
5.6
3 Japan
4.8
4 Germany
3.6
5 France
2.9
6 UK
2.6
7 Italy
2.3
8 Brazil
2.0
9 Russia
1.7
10 Canada
1.6
11 India
1.6
12 Spain
1.5
13 Australia
1.2
14 Mexico
1.1
15 Korea (ROK)
1.0
Source: IMF
Country GDP 2030 (USD trn)
1 China
31.7
2 USA
22.9
3 India
8.0
4 Brazil
5.9
5 Japan
5.9
6 Russia
4.7
7 Germany
4.4
8 France
4.2
9 UK
3.6
10 Mexico
3.0
11 Italy
2.9
12 Canada
2.3
13 Korea (ROK)
2.1
14 Spain
2.0
15 Australia
1.8
Projection in 2010 constant dollars; source: Goldman Sachs
Fast-growing emerging destinations
Inbound tourism 2000 - 2011
(Million)
70
60
58
50
40
29
30
31
25
22
19
20
13
9
10
10
9
5
8
5
5
10
10
9
6
3
0,5
2
0,8
3
4
9
5
0
2000
2011
*Data for 2010
Emerging markets increasing expenditure abroad
International tourism expenditure 2000 - 2011
US$ billion
100
90
86
2000 – US$ 475 billion
2011 – US$ 1.035 billion
78
80
73
70
65
2000: Top 5 : US$ 213 billion (47%)
2011: Top 5 : US$ 332 billion (32%)
60
53
51
50
44
40
1
2
2
1
38
3
32
30
32
27
23
20
3
4
4
10
21
5
9
5
9
7
0
2000
2011
7
13
12
20
17
12
4
26
6
18
18
18
14
7
15
15
17
NA
3
32
23
G
Un erm
ite an
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tat
es
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ite Ch
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ing a
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r
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iA )
rab
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Sp
a
No in
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Sw ay
Sw ed
itz en
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In
Ma dia
lay
sia
International tourism expenditure in major outbound
markets: BRICs are hot
40
30
20
-10
-20
International Tourism Expenditure
(% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)
C
2011
R
2012*
B
I
10
0
World and regions: Outbound Tourism
International Tourism Expenditure
(US$ billion)
90
Germany
80
United States
China
70
60
United Kingdom
50
France
40
Canada
Russian Federation
Italy
Japan
30
Belgium
20
10
0
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
Everybody chasing the
Chinese tourist…
China Outbound Travel Market
• China is the most populated country in the world and the world’s
second largest economy. China is also one of the fastest growing
travel markets in the world, both in terms of international visitor
arrivals and expenditure abroad
• China is the third largest spender in the world after Germany (US$ 86
billion) and the United States (US$ 79 billion). Chinese travellers spent
US$ 73 billion in 2011, a more than three-fold increase from 2005,
when expenditure was US$ 22 billion.
• Thanks to rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanization and
relaxations of restrictions on foreign travel, outbound trips from China
have grown an average 19% a year since 2000. Chinese had taken 34.5
million trips abroad (2006). By 2011, this figure had risen to over 70
million, and continues to increase steadily.
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
UNWTO reports on
Outbound Markets
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Indian Outbound Travel
Market (2007)
The Chinese Outbound Travel
Market (2008) (new update
forthcoming, 2012)
The Russian Outbound Travel
Market (2009)
The Middle East Outbound
Travel Market (2012)
The US Outbound Travel
Market (2013)
The Latin American Outbound
Travel Market (2013)
The Brazil Outbound Market
(2013)
Tourism in the global agenda
• G20 recognizes for the
first time Travel and
Tourism as a vehicle for
job creation, economic
growth and
development, and
commits to work on travel
facilitation
• Rio+20 recognizes the
significant contribution of
sustainable tourism to the
three dimensions of
sustainable development,
its linkages to other sectors
and its capacity to create
decent jobs and trade
opportunities.
Thank you very much for
your attention!
World Tourism Organization
(UNWTO)
www.unwto.org