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APEX 39
CAPE Priorities & Opportunities
Jamie Morin
OSD CAPE
9 September 2014
PLCC B6
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Agenda
• Introduction to CAPE
• PPBE Process & Building PB15
• PB15 Summary
• New Defense Strategy
• Expected Themes in PB16
• End Game Speculation
• Continuing Challenges
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Introduction to CAPE
• Independent advisor to SECDEF and DEPSECDEF on programmatic
resource allocation issues and decisions
• Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara established “Systems Analysis”
in 1961 (McNamara’s “Whiz Kids”) to analyze nearly every aspect of the
DoD budget
• Name changed to Program Analysis & Evaluation (PA&E) in 1970s
• Weapons Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009 changed
the name to Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation (CAPE)
– Focus on reducing cost overruns and schedule delays (ICEs, AoAs, etc.)
• Play a key role in the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, & Execution
(PPBE) process
– Links the defense strategy to resources
– “Big P” versus “little p”
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PPBE Process & Building PB15
• CAPE’s focus is on FY16 and beyond (informed by what’s
happening today
• Strategic Choices & Management Review (SCMR) was completed
in the summer
– Provided insight that was used to adjust Service toplines in fiscal guidance
• Fiscal guidance emphasized that we have less of a need for large
ground forces, but that we should protect forces needed for
Asia/Pacific conflicts
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PB15 Summary
• Navy
– Efficiencies
– Cruiser modifications (innovative)
• Air Force
– Cut A-10s and legacy modification; Protected F-35, Tanker & Bomber
– KC-10s
• Army
– GCV
– Helo restructure
– Force structure targets
• Marine Corps
– Focused on readiness
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PB15 Topline
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We’re still living with uncertainty
$650
$625
$600
($Billions)
$575
$550
$525
$26B
Fund
What do we know?
• Continuing Resolution
• Election year
• New defense strategy
• Reduced reliance on OCO
$500
What don’t we know?
• No new budget deal
• What topline OMB will submit
• How to address unfunded $$
• Long term health of force
$475
$450
FY14
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FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
6
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New Defense Strategy
• QDR & PB15 Strategy
• Attempt to measure delta in sequestration in terms of the
strategy
• Secretary’s speech suggests a much less capable force
–
–
–
–
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How much less capable?
In what areas?
What can we do about it?
How do we maximize the performance of a sequestered force?
7
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Expected Themes in PB16
• Budget disconnects
• Uncertainties
–
–
–
–
Topline levels
BRAC authority
Compensation
Other unknowns
• What we know
– Continuing Resolution likely in the fall
– Elections this fall
– Debt ceiling suspended until March 2015
• What we DON’T know
– No new budget deal
– Long term health of force (depends on where we are in the out-years)
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End Game Speculation
• Submit a higher, non-sequestered budget level
• Need a plan to prepare a budget at at sequestered budget levels
if we do not get the topline we want
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Balancing Challenges
Fiscal Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
Topline
Timing
OCO
Action on prior requests
Strategic & Operational Challenges
•
•
•
•
Shift to Asia – away game, geography, & A2AD
EM Spectrum Dominance
Commercial technological pacing vs DoD OODA Loop
Adversary cost imposition
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Internal Cost Pressures
• People
• Acquisition
• Operations and Support
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BACKUP
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CAPE Org Chart
DIRECTOR, CAPE
Jamie M. Morin
Principal Deputy Director
LtGen Robert E. Schmidle Jr.
Cost Assessment
Program Evaluation
Analysis & Integration
Deputy Director
Rick Burke
Deputy Director
Scott Comes
Deputy Director
Vacant
Front
Office
Team
Program, Data, &
Enterprise Services
Deputy Director
Joseph Nogueira
Economic and Manpower Analysis
Land Forces
Program Analysis
Enterprise Services
Weapon Systems Cost Analysis
Naval Forces
Simulation Analysis Center
Joint Data Support
Advanced Systems Cost Analysis
Tactical Air Forces
Force Structure & Risk Assessment
Operating and Support Cost Analysis
Projection Forces
Program Resources & Information
Systems Management
Irregular Warfare
C4 and Information Programs
Strategic Defensive & Space Prgms
Force and Infrastructure Analysis
Intelligence, Surveillance, & Rec.
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