Job Vacancy Durations Remain Near Peak Levels
Mixed Signals on Labor Market Slack
Dr. Steven J. Davis
University of Chicago Booth School of Business
May 9, 2014
http://dicehiringindicators.com/
Dice-DFH Index of Recruiting Intensity Per Vacancy,
January 2001 to March 2014
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
0.8
Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS
http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
Public and Private Sector Recruiting Intensity Indices
January 2001 to March 2014
1.30
Private Sector (left axis)
Public Sector (right axis)
1.20
1.10
2.20
Decennial
Census
Hiring
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.00
1.40
0.90
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.70
Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS
http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
0.60
0.80
0.60
Working
Days
Dice-DFH Measure of National Mean Vacancy Duration,
January 2001 to March 2014
25
23
20
18
Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS
http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
15
Dice-DFH Measure of Mean Vacancy Duration,
January 2001 to March 2014
Working
Days
25
Private Sector (left axis)
Public Sector (right axis)
Working
Days
45
23
40
20
35
18
30
15
25
13
20
Source: Own calculations using data from the JOLTS
http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
10
15
Recruiting Intensity Indices for Selected Industries
January 2001 to March 2014
Three-Month Moving Averages
1.20
Professional and Business Services
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale and Retail Trade
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
0.70
1.30
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Recruiting Intensity Indices by Census Region
January 2001 to March 2014
Midwest
Northeast
South
West
Three-Month Moving Averages
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working Days)
By Industry and Time Period
Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale and Retail
Trade
Warehouse, Trans. &
Utilities
Information
Financial Services
Professional and
Business Services
Education
Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Non-Farm
2001 to 2004 to
2010 to
Jan. 20142006 2008 2009
2013
2003
2005
2012
Mar. 2014
12.0
12.1 17.8
17.9
13.7
18.9
18.9
21.6
7.8
7.9 10.1
7.3
4.5
6.2
9.8
11.3
17.4
19.4 24.2
21.5
13.6
23.5
28.3
28.6
14.2
15.4
16.5
15.3
13.2
15.9
19.9
18.9
18.5
25.9
28.0
15.4
31.7
31.0
21.1
45.2
34.7
20.8
34.5
27.6
10.5
24.8
25.7
18.1
41.1
33.8
22.4
36.5
35.7
19.2
36.6
35.3
18.2
21.2
39.1
20.0
24.1
34.6
19.9
26.4
38.3
21.4
22.5
36.3
16.4
18.3
29.8
18.8
20.8
33.6
19.5
23.4
34.9
19.2
22.5
34.1
13.8
22.3
32.9
19.2
14.2
17.5
29.7
19.2
16.2
20.3
32.6
21.7
14.9
23.7
35.9
21.0
10.6
17.1
32.2
16.7
13.4
18.6
33.1
20.0
16.7
20.1
35.5
22.5
18.9
19.6
33.6
22.5
Note: We can highlight different time periods, if desired.
Recruiting Intensity Index
By Industry and Time Period
Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale and Retail
Trade
Warehouse, Trans. &
Utilities
Information
Financial Services
Professional and
Business Services
Education
Health Services
Leisure and
Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Non-Farm
2001 to 2004 to
2010 to
2006 2008 2009
2003
2005
2012
0.99
1.08 1.03
1.05
0.70
1.01
1.07
1.07 0.97
0.89
0.89
1.01
1.02
1.08 1.09
0.94
0.85
0.93
Jan. 2014Mar. 2014
0.98
0.98
0.93
0.83
0.88
0.89
2013
1.05
1.10
1.10
0.96
0.84
0.89 0.94
0.98
0.96
1.10
1.05
1.13
1.05
1.07
1.11
1.13
1.13
0.93
0.87
0.99
0.93
0.82
0.84
0.96 1.01
0.92 1.04
0.86 0.98
1.11
1.04
0.87
1.08
1.00
1.08
1.08
0.97
1.03
1.05
1.03
1.04
0.90
1.05
1.01
0.82
0.97
0.93
0.94 0.96
0.98 0.94
0.89 0.93
0.99
1.00
0.92
1.08
1.01
1.06
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.02
1.08
1.09
1.01
1.09
1.08
0.97
0.95
0.92
0.95
0.84
0.96
0.86
0.86
0.88
0.95
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.98
0.96
0.96
Note: We can highlight different time periods, if desired.
0.92
0.97
0.94
0.95
Focus on Professional & Business Services
Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working days)
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to 2004 to
2003
2005
Professional and
Business Services
Private
Non-Farm
18.2
18.3
19.2
20.0
18.6
19.2
2006
19.9
21.0
21.7
2008
21.4
20.0
21.0
2009
16.4
15.5
16.7
2010 to
Jan. 20142013
2012
Mar. 2014
18.8
19.0
20.0
19.5
21.6
22.5
19.2
21.7
22.5
Recruiting Intensity Index
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to 2004 to
2003
2005
Professional and
Business Services
Private
Non-Farm
1.08
1.05
1.05
1.08
1.08
1.08
2006
1.05
1.07
1.08
2008
0.90
0.95
0.95
2009
0.82
0.86
0.86
2010 to
Jan. 20142013
2012
Mar. 2014
0.94
0.92
0.92
0.96
0.95
0.95
0.99
0.95
0.96
References
Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2012),
“Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National
and Industry Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers &
Proceedings, 102, no. 3 (May), 584-588.
Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2013),
“The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128, no. 2 (May), 581-622.
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