Pilot project on river basin management and climate change adaptation in the
Neman river basin
1 Aim of the project (implemented by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Convention
on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Water
Convention) and UNDP Belarus, with funding from Finland and Sweden through the Environment
and Security Initiative( ENVSEC): The overall objective of the project is to improve integrated river
basin management and transboundary cooperation in times of a changing climate in the Neman
river basin. The project aims to strengthen the capacity to adapt to climate change of the countries
sharing the Neman river through supporting dialogue and cooperation on the needed steps to
design an adaptation strategy in the transboundary context. It will aim to reach a common
understanding on future water availability and water use taking into account possible climate
change impacts.
2 Activities in 2011:
1. Scientific material prepared for implementing the European Union Water Framework Directive
(WFD) in Lithuania translated into English and Russian.
2. Meeting 15-16 February 2011, Geneva:
 The project presented for the participants from other pilot project;
 Further process of the project discussed in more detail;
 The content of baseline study agreed;
 Next activities in the project discussed and agreed;
3. Expert Meeting 3-4 August 2011, Bratislava, hosted by IWAC:
 Outcomes of the baseline study presented;
 Slovakia’s experience in modeling and scenario-selection/ building as well as
vulnerability assessment shared;
 Environmental analysis done while implementing WFD in Lithuania presented;
 Climate Change analysis in the Lithuanian part of the Neman/ basin presented;
 Next activities in the project discussed and agreed;
4. Meeting 27-28 October 2011, Vilnius:
 Evaluation of changes in hydrological and meteorological regime of Neman river,
climate projections, water balance models presented ( from both sides - Lithuania and
Belarus);
 Suggestion about climate change assessment models and scenarios with using the
experience of Vilnius University in downscaling IPCC scenarios A1B and B1 with the
help of regional CLM models (based on EHAM outputs);
 General discussion on common parameters and approaches for basin-wide
environmental analysis and further steps of the project proceeded;
 Next activities in the project discussed and agreed.
5. Meeting 23-24 November 2011, Geneva:
 Presentation of the main results of baseline study;
 Discussion about future activities and further steps of the project
3 Activities in 2012:
1. Meeting 06 March, Grodno with discussion about:
 Outcomes of baseline study;
 Environmental assessment of the Neman basin including results of activities
regarding meteorological and hydrological data collection, proceeding, trends
analysis and mapping of results;
 Assessment of the future run-off under conditions of climate change as well as
different scenarios for socio-economic development;
 Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality and the optimization of
monitoring;
 Other relevant projects and opportunities for cooperation;
 Conclusions and next steps in the project.
2. Third Workshop on Water and Adaptation to Climate Change and Fifth Meeting of the
Task Force on Water and Climate of the UNECE Water Convention (25-27 April 2012,
Geneva, Switzerland) with the aim to:
 Support governments, organizations, joint bodies and other actors involved in the
process of preparing climate change adaptation strategies by offering them a
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platform to exchange experience on adapting to climate variability and change;
Identify, collect and analyses best practices, success factors and lessons learned
on adaptation to climate change, with a particular focus on transboundary basins;
 Share the practical experience developed by the pilot projects on adaptation to
climate change in transboundary basins under the UNECE Water Convention as
well as other similar initiatives and resources by partner organizations;
 Provide input to debates on water and climate and the definition of future activities
in this area.
Assessment of the current state of the water resources of the Niemen River basin
(quantitative and qualitative aspects), elaboration of the climate change scenarios and
forecasting of runoff changes:
 Meteorological and hydrological data collection and pre-proceeding (data from
1961 to 2010);
 Analysis of meteorological and hydrological characteristics trends for the period
from 1961 to 2010;
 Elaboration of future climate projections until 2035 (mean value of 2021-2050)
using regional climate model CCLM outputs according to A1B and B1
greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
 Forecasting of natural runoff changes in the Niemen River basin in the context
of climate change using WatBal model;
 Forecasting of total runoff of the Neman River basin in the context of climate
change and with account of scenarios for water use and socio-economic
development based on hydro economic balances calculations (Belarusian part of
river basin);
Pilot implementation of common Lithuanian and Belarusian approach for assessment of
water quality of surface waters in the entire Niemen River Basin taking into account
Lithuanian experience for selected list of water quality monitoring stations (WQMS) and
for selected list of water quality parameters including preparation a series of basin-wide
maps regarding classification of surface waters quality.
Analysis of the meteorological, hydrological, hydrochemical and hydrobiological
monitoring systems in the Neman River Basin and preparation of the preliminary
proposals for meteorological and hydrological systems optimization for climate change
monitoring.
Development of the prototype of common information platform (Internet database),
containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for
the Niemen River basin countries.
Preparation of the article about pilot project on river basin management and climate
change adaptation in the Neman river basin for the Climate Exchange Book (will be
published in October 2012 as co-publication between the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and Tudor Rose to cover the Global Framework to Climate
Services).
Field trip Hrodna (Belarus) - Druskininkai (Lithuania) and project meetings with the aims:
 Presentation of the general information about the project, main achieved results on
climate change, forecast of water runoff and water quality assessment to the main
stakeholders;
 Discussion about reached results and future activities.
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4 Results achieved
So far, the project has resulted in a first joint assessment of water resources and climate change
impacts in the Neman Basin, thereby enabling a renewal of cooperation between experts from the
riparian countries on the shared river basin.
Detected changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics for the period from 1961 to
2010:
 Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and summer temperature (largest
changes were observed in January);
 Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation;
 Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the minimum winter flow increased
statistically significant in large part of territory;
 Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter flow tends occur earlier in the whole
basin area.
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Future climate projections and runoff direcast:
CCLM model temperature projections for the Neman river basin foresee an air temperature rise in
the first half of the 21st century. Mean annual air temperature in the basin is expected to rise by
1.4° C–1.7° C according to different climate scenarios, with a 2.0 ° C–2.8° C increase in Winter
and 0.7° C–1.1° C increase in Summer. The annual precipitation amount will also likely increase in
the Neman basin area. Larger changes are predicted for the first half of the year, while for the
summer-autumn period smaller positive or even negative changes are foreseen. Model outputs
data indicate a decrease in sunshine duration in the first half of the 21st century. Relatively the
largest sunshine duration decrease will be observed during the winter months. Due to the cold
season air temperature rise and changes in precipitation composition snow cover will decline in the
near-term future.
Results of the future water balance modeling show that significant changes of the runoff regime in
the Neman basin are likely to happen. The projected annual runoff will be lower in 2021-2050 than
in 1961-2009 in the Belarusian part of the Neman basin, but the annual runoff in the Lithuanian
part of the Neman basin is likely to increase. The largest positive changes are projected in January
and February due to the earlier start of spring flood, rise of winter precipitation and increased
frequency of thaws. The projected maximum runoff will decrease in the majority of the Neman
basin because of warmer Winters with more frequent thaws and consequently less water
accumulated in snow cover before flood. Spring flood will also start earlier due to the shorter
duration of snow cover. The higher flood risk can be expected only in the western part of Lithuania.
The changing climate will also affect the warm season (May-September) runoff. The decrease of
May-September runoff in some catchments suggests that in some parts of the Neman basin the
hydrological droughts may be more frequent or with higher magnitude then they were in the 19612009.
Forecasted water use for the industry of Belarus will grow by 0.5-2.0% per year in case of
optimistic scenario of economic development which will also have slight impact on runoff regime.
However, it was determined that the impact of climate change will be more important on runoff in
the Neman River Basin on the territory of Belarus in comparison with forecasted impact of water
use changes.
5 Ongoing/ Future planned activities:
Activities:
1. Assessment of the needs and development of proposals for optimization of the
meteorological, hydrological and other (if possible) monitoring systems in the Neman
River Basin systems optimization for climate change monitoring (including emergency
cases)
2. Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water quality
3. Elaboration of the common information platform (Internet database), containing data on
water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the Neman River
basin countries and final report on Project including recommendations for the
improvement of the water management in the Neman River Basin with account of
adaptation to climate change.
4. Preparation of the Publication about results of the Project (2013).
Communication:
1. Discussions with participation of stakeholders for participatory analysis of the impacts of
projected changes in runoff on various socio-economic sectors and about of
recommendations and adaptation measures (during period of the Project realization);
2. Presentation and discussion about main project results and about recommendation for
improvement of water management in connection with climate change adaptation
(Geneva, Switzerland, February 2013).
Mr. Audrius Sepikas, Environment Protection Agency, Lithuania
Tel:
+370 5 266 28 15, E-mail: a.sepikas@aaa.am.lt
Mr. Egidijus Rimkus, Vilnius University
Tel:
+370 52 398 295, Email:
Mr. Vladimir Korneev, Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources, Belarus
Tel:
+375 17 263 4833, E-mail: v_korn@rambler.ru
Ms. Iryna Usava, Project Manager: Tel/fax: + 375 (17) 263 53 31, E-mail: iryna.usava@undp.by
Ms. Sonja Koeppel, Manager of the project at UNECE, +41 22 917 1218, Email:
sonja.koeppel@unece.org.
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