Expected impacts of climate change in the Neman river basin,
the potential and possible adaptation measures
(summary of the vulnerability assessment of the basin)
The most vulnerable resources in the Neman basin
Resource,
industry
Water resources
Forest resources
Risk features
High probability of exposure to the impacts of climate change and variability. The tendency of a
slight increase in the average annual flow across
the basin (with decrease in Belarus). An increase of
irregularity of the intra-annual flow distribution. Decrease of runoff and earlier onset of spring flood.
Growth of probability of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (summer droughts and reduced
water levels, summer and autumn rain floods,
spring floods). The increased risk of floods in the
upper reaches of the Neman river on the territory of
Belarus, in the western part of Lithuania and the
Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation as well
as across a basin with the increased intensity of
reclamation of the river flood plains. An increase of
water temperatures and possible reduction of the
content of dissolved oxygen, deterioration of the
hydrobiological indicators of the surface water quality, change in the regime of levels.
The increase in periods of rainfall floods and costs
of flood-protection works.
The risk of significant reduction of the small rivers
runoff (especially in summer) with lowering of water
levels and deterioration of water quality as well as
recreational potential.
Changes in the status of forest resources due to
general climate changes (structure and composition
of forests, infections, parasites) may affect the formation of surface flow.
Loss of productivity and quality of timber (lack of
moisture may provoke drying and reduction of forest
cover). A decrease in productivity of the «bounty of
forest»: mushrooms and berries.
Other ecoThe likely deterioration of biodiversity characteristics
systems and including a possible reduction of the habitat of inwetlands
digenous species due to drying out of habitat areas,
degradation of water quality along with increase in
temperature and introduction of alien species. Fires
in terrestrial ecosystems (peat lands)
Adaptation
potential
Adaptation measures
Medium
Required the effective
management of water resources and optimization of
the water consumption;
including regulation of requirements to agricultural
and urban development
activities in the river floodplains in order to reduce
the risk and damage from
floods and droughts.
Monitoring of a situation in
the basin, including an improvement of the monitoring system for hydrological
and hydrochemical regimes
as well as automation of
the monitoring points.
Organization of information
exchange between the
countries on a regular basis. Development of the
management plans for water resources and flood
risks across the basin, a
regular mapping of the risk
of flooding; the action plans
for emergency situations,
information distribution (including across the borders)
about the danger of floods.
Reduction of pollution from
point and non-point
sources. Monitoring of the
hydraulic installations in the
mouths of the rivers.
Awareness-raising of the
population.
Medium in the
case of effective
forest management
Replacement of the most
sensitive species by more
resistant ones; monitoring
and analysis of the situation
Medium (low for
wetlands), at
present it is
mainly determined by the
autonomous
adaptation.
Management plans, combating with invasive species, monitoring of ecosystems and water quality,
control over compliance
with the technologies of
natural resources management (for example, during development of peat
lands), preservation and
expansion of wetlands.
Fish fauna
Reduction in species composition and an increase
in invasive species
Medium-low,
currently, it is
determined by
autonomous
adaptation.
Restoration of species and
habitats, combating with
invasive species, water protection measures.
The most vulnerable sectors of the economy
Industry
An additional reduction of runoff due to water use
may reach up to 5% in the future, the maximum reduction in runoff may constitute up to 15% in summer
seasons due to climate change. The water scarcity
for the industry in total is unlikely to occur because of
good availability of groundwaters (especially in Lithuania), but is possible for enterprises using water from
the low-water surface sources. It is likely a negative
impact of climate change on the objects of recreation
due to reduction of water levels. The increased contamination of surface waters may occur due to decreased runoff in summer period. The reduction of
runoff in summer periods will not have a significant
impact on the industry development but may negatively influence to the water quality in receiving water
bodies considering water scarcity for dilution of
wastewaters deteriorating their quality.
The risk of water scarcity for power industry facilities
is insignificant, except for hydropower facilities due to
a possible reduction of water levels in waterways with
hydroelectric power stations. Certain risk exists due
to the increased probability of dry seasons in the
second half of summer across the basin.
Medium in Belarus in
case of the improved
water use and economic mechanisms as
well as introduction of
water conservation
and recovery activities.
High in Lithuania due
to predominant consumption of groundwaters in industry.
The development of
water efficient, watersaving and clean
technologies (“green
economy”), the reduction of
wastewater discharges. Improvement of economic
mechanisms for water supply and sanitation. Awarenessraising of the population.
Medium in Belarus in
case of improvement
of water resources
management at the
power plants, including
the effective use of
their accumulating
reservoirs.
Sufficient in Lithuania
in case of forecasted
small changes in runoff.
Housing
and public
utilities
Municipal water supply to the settlements in the basin
is completely based on the groundwater use; the risk
of water scarcity due to climate change is unlikely to
occur. It is possible deterioration of water supply in
the settlements without centralized water supply due
to lowering of the first level of groundwater aquifer
and the drying up of wells, as well as additional related costs to develop water supply and sanitation systems, storm water drainage and the local water
treatment providing water purification and sanitation.
The increase of the drinking water supply to population during warm periods of the year.
High, due to water
supply from the
groundwater sources,
improvement of economic mechanisms,
systems of water supply and sanitation (including centralization
of water supply in rural
areas).
Agriculture
The change in productivity and optimal habitats of
Medium
Improvement of the
engineering projects
and the technologies
of HPP construction,
updating of the rules
of HPP maintenance
considering the forecasted changes in
hydrological regime
at the basin level;
improvement of the
management of releases from reservoirs and wastewater
discharges, the increase in using renewable energy
sources and use of
wastes for energy
production.
Development of the
systems of centralized water supply
and sanitation in the
rural settlements; the
periodical assessment of deposits and
groundwater monitoring (quality and
quantity indicators).
The reduction of areas of waste disposal
by improving the systems of their processing.
Implementation of
measures to reduce
the losses of thermal
energy and water;
modernization and
construction of energy efficient buildings.
Replacement of agri-
Energy
Fish industry
agricultural crops due to general climate change and
possible water scarcity. The risk of water scarcity for
agricultural production is unlikely to occur, except for
the users abstracting 2-4 million m3 of surface waters
in the certain dry periods of low-water years. The climate change impact may increase the pollution of
soil and water resources (for example, the increase
in irrigated agriculture and the expansion of irrigated
areas will lead to a more intensive migration of nitrogen compounds into groundwaters). The strengthening of soil erosion and the deterioration of water quality due to the sharp increase in frequency of intense
floods.
Possible deficit of water resources for enterprises of
the fish industry due to the reduction of runoff and
lower levels of surface waters, as well as redistribution among other sectors of the economy. The likely
changes may occur in fish fauna, the disappearance
or reduction of the spawning grounds may provoke
the reduction of fish biodiversity. The changing environment conditions (water temperature, dissolved
oxygen, ice regime) will lead to the changes in fish
production and species composition (including possibilities of the new fish species breeding).
The vulnerability of fisheries and hydrobiological
characteristics of the Curonian Lagoon depending on
the Neman runoff - their deterioration in the reduction
of runoff due to the increase in salinity and their improvement with the increase in runoff due to the reduction of salinity.
cultural crops by
more productive and
resistant varieties
(adapted to the new
climate conditions).
Reduction of pollution from point and
dispersed sources.
Introduction of effective technologies,
including for small
farms.
Medium in Belarus.
High in Lithuania due
to privatization of the
fish farms.
Transport
infrastructure, including
water
transport
A possible deterioration of the infrastructure condition
as a result of intensification of dangerous hydrological phenomena (dry periods, heavy precipitation), as
well as the insufficiency of the legal framework of
water resources management (it is using an administrative but not a basin principle of the water management in Belarus, the international agreement
across the Neman river basin does not exist). Deterioration of conditions for water transport due to decreased water levels and accelerated accumulation
of sediment in the water bodies.
Medium due to lack of
financing. Higher in
case of signing and
implementation of the
Agreement on the
Neman river basin and
step-by-step implementation of the basin
management principles
Health of
population
Deterioration of water quality in the areas of recreation. The reduction of the drinking water quality in the
settlements without centralized water supply. An increase in the water consumption in dry periods. The
growing frequency of occurrence of hot and cold periods. Change of conditions for tourism and recreation, including a reduction in the recreation potential
for kayaking in cases of lowering water levels in water objects.
Medium
Effective supervision
and optimization of
water use.
Fish fauna monitoring, regulation of
fisheries, the use of
possibilities for
breeding new species, including the
expansion of artificial
reservoirs network
and aquaculture
growing. Additional
technological
measures in Belarus
(aeration, increase in
flow, chemical methods).
Improvement of the
legal and institutional
framework of the basin management,
awareness-raising of
population.
Adaptation of water
transportation to the
increased water level
fluctuations, including conducting of
engineering activities
to improve the capacity of watercourses.
Monitoring and forecast of the dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena.
Improvement of the
land use.
Improving of monitoring and control of the
surface and groundwater quality, awareness-raising of population. Maintenance
of the tourist and recreational infrastructure.