Review of ISF conflict analysis
Burundi
This review is based on the conflict analysis conducted during the Burundi Strategic
Assessment (August 2010). Inputs come from the After Action Review of this Strategic
Assessment.
Process
The conflict analysis was based on existing UN documents shared with all participants in
the mission on a CD-Rom, and on meetings. It was generated and fine-tuned throughout
the mission. After a couple of meetings in Burundi, the mission members had a
brainstorming session on conflict analysis, and a member of the drafting team came up
with the first draft, which was then amended along the way.
The context (elections had just taken place, no government) made it difficult to decide on
the impact of certain factors, or the role of actors.
Methodology
The tools of the Strategic Assessment methodology were used, except for problem trees.
The conflict analysis was conducted based on participant’s experiences in conflict
analysis. The SWOT analysis was used. Experienced participants “have their own
toolkit”.
Strategic Assessment Guidelines were considered very useful to guide the Strategic
Assessment mission through the path of conflict analysis and prioritization.
There was a discussion on scenarios (and some participants considered that the SA
guidelines should be more explicit about this), and the report outlines four different
scenarios, and suggests priorities based on the middle option.
Format of the report
The report presents the current context, opportunities and risks, and four scenarios over
the next five years. The Strategic Assessment is an internal UN document.
The analysis did generate some new findings, especially because the context had changed
with elections, and there was no very recent analysis produced.
Link between the conflict analysis and priorities
The link between analysis and priorities is made as follows in the report:
“Drawing from the analysis of the present strategic context and likely scenarios over the
next five years, three core areas of strategic priority for Burundi can be identified if the
country is to put its past violence definitively behind it. While deriving from that
analysis, these strategic priorities closely reflect and reinforce already existing
frameworks – including the Government’s “2025 Vision”, existing Security Council
mandates and benchmarks, the PRSP, the UNDAF [2010-2014], the Strategic Framework
for Peacebuilding and the World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy, suggesting an
important continuity of vision even as Burundi moves forward into its new post-electoral
context.”
The SWOT analysis was used for prioritization. There are SWOT tables in annex.