SWFDP Eastern AfricaCascading Forecast
By
Ruben K. Barakiza
Institut Geographique du Burundi( IGEBU)
Meteorological Department
P.O.BOX 331
BUJUMBURA
BURUNDI
Email: barakiza_r@yahoo.co.uk
• Objective
• The provision of timely and effective information
– through identified institutions
– that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take
adequate actions to avoid or reduce their risk and
prepare for effective response
Extreme weather events
• Currently, the SWFD focuses on the following
weather extreme events:
• Heavy rains
• Strong winds associated with thunderstorms
• Dry spells
• Ocean/lake waves
• Target users
• Department of Disaster Management and
Public Safety Authority
• General public,
• Various socio-economic institutions impacted by
weather/climate
The Cascading Forecasting Process
•
In the framework of the general organization of the Global
Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), the SWFDP
implies a co-ordinated functioning among three types of GDPFS
centres.
• These are:
 Global NWP Centres to provide available NWP products,
including in the form of probabilities;
 Regional Centres to interpret information received from the
global NWP centres,
 run limited-area models to refine products,
 liaise with the participating NMCs;
 The NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings;
 to liaise and collaborate with Media, and Disaster Management
and CivilPprotection Authorities; and
 to contribute to the evaluation of the project.
Cascading FCST ( cont’d)
The first phase of this project commenced October 2011 and focused on:
• heavy rain,
• strong winds,
• sea/lake waves, and
• prolonged dry spells.
The participating Services and Centres in the SWFDP Eastern Africa
include:
• NMHSs: Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda
• Regional Centres: RSMC, KMD - Nairobi, RSMC, TMA - Dar es
Salaam; and
• Global Products Centres:
• European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast( ECMWF)
• Exeter (Met Office UK),
• Washington (NOAA/NCEP ), and
• DWD (Germany)
NWP Product Analysis
• Analysis of national observational data
• Regional Productsfrom the RSMC-Nairobi
 Extreme weather guidance
 Risk table
 Cosmos model products
 Lake Victoria project
• Internatinal Centres
 ECMWF Determistic forecasts and EPS
 Rainfall model products
• NOAA NWP products, including:
 10-day precipitation forecasts,
 wind flow forecast,
 Atmospheric Instability indices
• Uk Metoffice products
• EUMETSAT Products: satellite imagery, vertical atmosphere
sounding
CURREWNT STATUS OF OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK IN BURUNDI
The current status of meteorological observational
network in Burundi is as follows:
• 2 synoptic stations operating 24 hours per day.
• 13 main climatological stations
• 125 rainfall stations
• 43 hydrometric stations at main rivers such as
Ruvubu, Rusizi and Malagarazi rivers from where
hydrological measurements are carried out and
data collected.
• 5 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS)
• EUMETSAT AMESD-PUMA satellite data station
National Meteorological Observational Network in Burundi
ECMWF Deterministic Forecast for Bujumbura,
01/04/2013
ECMWF 6-hour Rainfall Model Forecast over Burundi on
01/04/2013 ( 06UTC-12UTC)
NOAA 10-day Precipitation Forecast, 18-25 May 2013
NOAA/GFS 850hpa Temperature, Relative
humidity and Streamlines
NOAA/GFSPrecipitable water, and Convective Available
Potential Energy(CAPE) on 18/05/2013
00h
CAPE
• Convective available potential energy(CAPE),is the
amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a
certain distance vertically through the atmosphere.
• CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air
parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability,
• It is very valuable in predicting severe weather.
CAPE Values
Potential Weather
1000 - 3000 J kg-1
Deep Convection
5000 - 7000 J kg-1
Maximum Values- (extreme atm. instability)
RSMC-NAIROBI
OUNTRY
RISK TABLE - Day 1: Monday 1st April, 2013
HEAVY RAIN
STRONG WINDS
LARGE WAVES
RISK
RISK
RISK
No
BURUNDI
Low
X
KENYA
RWANDA
Med
No
Low
X
C,S,W&
NE
X
TANZANIA
High
Med
High
No
X
X
E
X
N,E, C &
SW
Low
X
Off SE
Coast
E
UGANDA
S
X
X
ETHIOPIA
S
X
X
Med
H
i
g
h
RSMC-NAIROBI Risk Table-Day 2:
Tuesday 2nd April, 2013
COUNTRY
HEAVY RAIN
RISK
No
BURUNDI
Low
X
High
No
LARGE WAVES
RISK
RISK
Low
X
KENYA
RWANDA
Med
STRONG WINDS
C&W
X
TANZANIA
Med
High
No
X
X
E
X
N&C
Low
X
Off SE
Coast
E
UGANDA
X
X
X
ETHIOPIA
S
X
X
Med
H
i
g
h
EUMETSAT,
2013-04-01 IR image at 1200UTC
Case study: Example of 16 April, 2013
• Risk table: Low risk of Rainfall>50mm/24h
• Guidance forecast from RSMC-Nairobi showed
that much of the country expected rainfall>
50mm/24h
• On 15 April, 2013: A warning for heavy rains was
issued.
• What happened on the ground
• In the Eastern parts of Burundi, in Ruyigi
Province, Muriza weather station recorded
108.6mm/24h on 16/04/2013 .
RISK TABLE Day 1: Monday 15th April, 2013
Issue Monday 15th April, 2013
COUNTRY
HEAVY RAIN
STRONG WINDS
LARGE WAVES
RISK
RISK
RISK
No
Low
BURUNDI
W
KENYA
W&C
RWANDA
W
TANZANIA
Off E
Coast
UGANDA
ETHIOPIA
X
SW
Medium High
No
Low
Medium
X
Coast
High
No
Low
M H
edi i
um g
h
X
Coast
E
X
X
Off SE
Coast
E
X
X
X
X
RISK TABLE DAY 2:
Tuesday 16th April, 2013
COUNTRY
HEAVY RAIN
STRONG WINDS
LARGE WAVES
RISK
RISK
RISK
No
Low
BURUNDI
X
KENYA
SW
RWANDA
X
TANZANIA
N&W
UGANDA
ETHIOPIA
X
SW
Medium
High
No
Low
X
Coast
Medium
High
No
Me H
diu i
m
g
h
X
Coast
X
Off E
Coast
Low
E
X
Off SE Coast
E
X
X
X
X
Guidance Forecast for Tuesday 16th April, 2013
2013 April 16th , 24h-Total rainfall over Burundi
Information Dissemination and communication
• The Burundi NMHS dissemites and weather information
to the socio-economic sectors and to the general public
through various
facilities such as:
• National Radio broadcating
• Telephone
• Internet-emails
• Gaps:
 Lack of television presentation,
 Lack of MOU with Newspapers
 Lack of allocated budget for providing weather
information
( for instance, newspapers)
Relationship with disaster management and civil
protection authorities and media
A networking and viable communication links exist
between Burundi NMHS and the Disaster
Management and Civil Protection Office.
 The National Platform for disaster Management
has a representative from the Burundi NMHS
UNDP-funded workshops focusing on Disaster
prevention and preparedness have been organized
aimed at capacity building of DMCPA, Media, NMHS
and other concerned institutions.
Media have been important means for
disseminating information on extreme weather
events.
Challenges
• Most extreme weather events such as hail, strong
winds, etc. are associated with small scale
thunderstorms, sometimes not materialized by
global models.
• Inadequate feedback from user community
• Low level of awareness and disaster preparedness
in the general public leading to low coping capacity.
• THE END
• THANK YOU FOR LISTENNING !!!