2014 Economic Outlook
19th annual survey
Fielded December 2-5, 2013
1,003 Canada-wide online interviews
(margin of error for a probability sample of this size: ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Perceptions of Canada’s Economy:
Just over half (52%) believe Canada is still in recession
Severe recession
Mild recession
Moderate growth
Strong growth
80%
74%
64%
61%
62%
60%
52%
49%
63%
55%
53%
55%
56%
51%
40%
40%
39%
33%
23%
21%
25%
20%
17%
17%
19%
12%
11%
2%
0%
2002
9%
4%
4%
2003
15%
5%
3%
2004
3%
2005
29%
27%
25%
5%
2006
44%
40%
11%
3%
2007
12%
3%
2008
9%
5%
0%
2009
0%
0%
2010
2011
7%
0%
2012
Which of the following best describes how you feel about Canada’s economy? Is the
economy in a severe recession, a mild recession, a period of moderate growth, or
a period of strong growth?
3%
1%
2013
8%
1%
2014
Perceptions of Canada’s Economy: 6th consecutive year
majority of Canadians feel we’re in recession
Recession
100%
91%
Growth
85%
80%
78%
71%
67%
60%
60%
70%
66% 65%
65%
53%
54%
52%
44%
41%
40%
36%
26%
26%
40%
29%
28%
25%
20%
22%
14%
6%
17%
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Which of the following best describes how you feel about Canada’s economy? Is
the economy in a severe recession, a mild recession, a period of moderate growth,
or a period of strong growth?
2013
2014
Expected Duration of Recession:
Only 23% expect recession to end in 2014
Don’t Know
6 Months or Less
4%
19%
Over 2 Years
19%
25%
19%
14%
19 Months to
2 Years
[IF RECESSION] How much longer do you expect the current recession to
last for?
7 Months to a Year
13 Months to
18 Months
Perceived Personal Financial Situation: Majority are
holding their own, but just 17% “getting ahead”
Holding your own
Getting ahead
Losing ground
80%
60%
55%
51%
45%
45%
33%
33%
46%
52%
45%
57%
48%
47%
42%
42%
40%
39%
34%
27%
33%
32%
27%
36%
26%
25%
24%
20%
21%
21%
23%
24%
20%
16%
17%
18%
20%
18%
18%
17%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Thinking of your overall financial situation, over the past few years, would
you say you are getting ahead, holding your own or losing ground?
2013
2014
Household Income vs. Cost of Living: Increase from last
year in the number falling behind the cost of living
60%
55%
49%
50%
45%
40%
44%
48%
45%
47%
51%
48%
49%
50% 51%
49% 50%
45%
43%
42%
41%
42%
44%
42%
41% 42% 41%
39% 38%
35%
Keep pace
32%
Fall behind
35%
37%
37%
30%
50%
48%
47% 47%
44%
29%
More than keep pace
20%
10%
8%
8%
9%
6%
9%
12%
10% 11%
10%
9%
8%
11%
12%
8%
8%
8%
10%
9%
8%
0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Do you think that your household income this year will more than keep pace
with the cost of living, keep pace with it, or fall behind the cost of living?
2012
2013
2014
Expectations for the Next 12 Months: Outlook for Canada’s
economy more positive than for US or Global economy
Canada's Economy
Canada's Employment Situation
26%
The Stock Market
19%
The United States Economy
21%
The Global Economy
45%
32%
16%
Improve
16%
43%
37%
23%
22%
31%
35%
Not Change
7%
21%
39%
36%
Worsen
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to
improve, worsen, or not change:
8%
9%
13%
Don't Know
Expectations for Canada’s Economy: Optimists outnumber
pessimists, but outlook less upbeat than this time last year
100%
80%
7%
8%
6%
19%
5%
14%
19%
35%
57%
17%
31%
2007
2008
16%
46%
45%
40%
26%
30%
7%
27%
36%
45%
40%
3%
15%
7%
27%
60%
20%
6%
54%
38%
25%
20%
36%
32%
2013
2014
0%
Improve
2009
2010
Not Change
2011
2012
Worsen
Don't Know
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to
improve, worsen, or not change: Canada’s Economy
Expectations for Canada’s Employment Situation: Similar
number expect it to worsen and improve over next year
100%
80%
8%
8%
7%
21%
6%
6%
22%
25%
7%
38%
68%
60%
20%
31%
35%
44%
38%
28%
40%
21%
30%
40%
26%
4%
8%
23%
43%
39%
14%
43%
31%
31%
20%
12%
26%
0%
2007
2008
Improve
2009
2010
Not Change
2011
2012
Worsen
2013
2014
Don't Know
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to
improve, worsen, or not change: Canada’s Employment Situation
Economic Expectations for Next 12 Months:
Majority expect debt, taxes, and inflation to increase
Canada's National Debt
Taxes
61%
Inflation
The Value of the Canadian Dollar
0%
Increase
26%
55%
60%
17%
40%
20%
Not Change
40%
Decrease
11% 8%
28%
5% 6%
28%
3% 9%
33%
10%
60%
80%
100%
Don't Know/Refused
And over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to
increase, decrease, or not change:
Likelihood of Job Loss in Next 12 Months: Fear of job loss
is higher than at any point over past 19 years
50%
% who believe that it is either “somewhat or very likely they or someone
in their household may lose his/her job in the next 12 months”
40%
34%
32%
31%
30%
29%
28%
24%
27%
23%
20%
22%
23%
22%
25%
25%
22%
19%
19%
22%
19%
16%
10%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
How likely do you think it is that you or a member of your immediate
family may lose his or her job in the next twelve months?
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dan Arnold
Associate Vice President, Public Affairs
danarnold@pollara.com
416.921.0090 Ext. 2220
www.pollara.com