Climate Change: our final Tragedy of the Commons? Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre 2012 Presentation outline Current aspirations and emission trends Why we should strive for 2°C The levels of mitigation required of the UK Behavioural and technical opportunities Messages for business Summary Manchester Energy The international energy agency’s view on climate change “When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.” “we have 5 years to change the energy system – or have it changed” Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist Similar concerns expressed by government chief scientists, PwC, World Bank Manchester Energy Climate change commitments International ‘To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius and take action .. consistent with science and on the basis of equity‘ EU UK Manchester Energy ‘must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed preindustrial levels by more than 2°C’ ‘average global temperatures must rise no more than 2°C’ How do 2 & 4°C futures fit with CO2 trends? What is the role of energy? Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 80.0 70.0 Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Billion tonnes CO2 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 Rio + 20 Copenhagen Accord David King CC most dangerous threat Royal Commission report (60% by 2050) RIO Earth Summit UN Climate change panel established (IPCC) Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 20.0 10.0 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 Rio + 20 80.0 Global economic downturn 70.0 Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 … yet emissions have continued to rise (~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12) 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 Rio + 20 80.0 70.0 Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 … so what of future emissions? 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 Rio + 20 80.0 70.0 Energy system design lives (lock-in) Supply technologies 25-50 year Large scale infrastructures Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 Built environment 50.0 30-100 years Aircraft and ships ~30 years 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 … and assuming current mitigation plans Rio + 20 80.0 70.0 Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 Rio + 20 80.0 70.0 Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 50.0 ~3000GtCO2 for 2000-2050 ~5000GtCO2 for 2000-2100 40.0 30.0 … i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 Rio + 20 80.0 70.0 Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 50.0 40.0 … outside chance 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) 90.0 Rio + 20 80.0 70.0 Billion tonnes CO2 60.0 50.0 … but building low/zero carbon electrical supply needs to begin now 40.0 D Too early e for supply m a SUPPLY n & d demand 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 So, if 2°C is too challenging, what about 4°C – or more? For 4°C global mean surface temperature 5°C - 6°C global land mean … & increase °C on the hottest days of: 8°C - 10°C in Central Europe In low latitudes 4°C gives up to 40% reduction in maize & rice as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050 There is a widespread view that 4°C is: incompatible with an organised global community beyond ‘adaptation’ devastating to eco-systems highly unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points) … consequently … 4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs UK energy and the 2°C challenge 10% reduction in emissions year on year 40% reduction by 2015 70% 2020 90+% 2030 Impossible? … is living with a 4°C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less impossible? Where to from here? Who needs to lead on these reductions? Pareto’s 80:20 rule 80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved ~80% of emissions from ~20% of population run this 3 times ~50% of emissions from ~1% of population … as a guide 40-60% emissions from 1-5% population Who’s in the 1-to-5%? Climate scientists Climate journalists & pontificators OECD (& other) academics Anyone who gets on a plane For the UK anyone earning over £30k What options are there technically? The Electricity system Light, Refrign Electricity Consumption 10 50 Transmission 54 Powerstation 120 Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport 133 Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term What options are there technically? Car efficiency (without rebound) EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out) 2008 BMW 109g/km, VW, 85-99g/km; 1998 Audi A2 ~ 75g/km ~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km ~40-50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology Reverse recent trends in occupancy ~60-70% reduction by 2020 So what do we know? For businesses the message is simple but uncomfortable Should avoid 4°C at all costs Need ~70% decarbonisation over next 5-10 years Only small % of global population need to mitigate Low carbon energy supply is too little too late in the West Principal response is to reduce energy demand now Carbon trading & prices are not viable for non-marginal (large) reductions Headline messages Change behaviour - today (producers and consumers) Improve technology - now & over the next few years Consume less To Summarise Uncomfortable conclusions from conservative analysis Link between cumulative emissions & temp’ is broadly correct Non-OECD nations peak emissions by 2025/30 There are rapid reductions in deforestation & food emissions No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur & Stern/CCC/IEA’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved 2°C stabilisation is virtually impossible 4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘likely’ 6°C+) (could be earlier & on the way to So … for businesses? Lead by example Don’t be the exception - (cars, planes, ships – all argue to be treated leniently) Don’t hide behind blame of others - (UK blames China, China blame US …) Consider the system - (e.g. shale’s impact on coal use, etc.) Acknowledge it is not going to be easy – it will often hurt So … for businesses? Be courageous as business leaders and as citizens Mitigate for 2°C, but plan for 4°C – or more … and finally “… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.” Anderson & Bows. Royal Society 2011 … and finally “at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.” Roberto Unger End Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre 2012