7 Billion going on 10 Billion
Earth in the Balance –
Food, Climate, Youth
World Population Trends
• Population growth is slowing:
– 1960: 3 Billion; 1980: 4.5 Billion; 2000: 6.1 Billion
– 2040: 8.9 Billion; 2060: 9.6 Billion; 2085: 10 Billion
• But local growth is still strong in Africa, South
Asia, and the Middle East
• Two population groups are growing very fast,
much faster than world population
– Urban Population
– Global Middle Class
Total Population: USA, Europe and
Sub-Saharan Africa
4000
3500
3000
2500
Europe
2000
1500
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1000
USA
500
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
Illustrations of Local Population
Growth (millions – M/H/C)
2010
2050
2100
Nigeria
158
390/433/504
730/1024/2660
Uganda
33
94/106/144
171/246/1095
Niger
15
55/61/76
139/188/690
Tanzania
44
138/155/170
316/449/1003
Ethiopia
83
145/166/243
150/236/961
An Urban World
6000
5000
4000
Urban Rich World
3000
Urban Dev.
World
2000
1000
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
The Global Middle Class
Millions
10000
8000
World
6000
Rest of world
4000
North Am. & Europe
2000
0
2009
2020
2030
The Global Middle Class
OECD Projected Spending in millions of 2005 PPP-adjusted dollars
120000
100000
80000
World
60000
Rest of world
40000
North Am. & Europe
20000
0
2009
2020
2030
Probable Consequences
• Magnified and Accelerated Climate Change
– More Cars, Travel, Consumption, Waste, Urban
concentration
• Chronic Food Crises
– Higher consumption of meat and processed foods
• More frequent and more intense
Humanitarian Crises
– More people living in more vulnerable areas with
higher risks
What to do?
• Prepare for the worst
• Innovate in Urban and Regional Construction
and Planning
– More energy and travel efficient, more social cities
(From the 19th to the 21st Century)
• Change Diets (for Health and Well-being)
• Tax Carbon, waste, excess consumption