Sustainable Development and
Low Carbon Growth
Strategy for India
Kirit S. Parikh
Chairman, Integrated Research and Action for Development
Chairman, Expert Committee on Low Carbon Strategy for
Inclusive Growth
The Background
• India’s economy needs to grow at 8 % to 10 % per year for two to three
decades to meet its human development needs.
• Growth coupled with growing population puts significant stress on natural
resources & environment.
• Major threat to sustainability of India’s development arises from energy
use.
• Per capita consumption of energy in India is one of the lowest in the world.
India consumed 530 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe) per person of primary
energy in 2007 compared to 1480 in China, 7750 in the U.S. and the world
average of 1820
• 84% of the 160 million rural households, 23% of the 72 million urban
households cook with biomass based solid fuels
India’s Energy Needs, Resources and Options
Total Primary Energy Supply in 2007
Renewable731Pj,
4%
•
Fuel wood +
Animal Dung
2271Pj, 11%
.
Coal, 8343 Pj,
42%
LNG, 427Pj,
2%
Natural
Gas,1221Pj,
6%
Petroleum
Products, 6523Pj,
33%
Lignite, 408Pj,
2%
Energy Consumption by Fuels and Forms in India (2007)
Fuel Wood + Animal
Dung, 2271Pj,
16%
Coal, 2111Pj,
14%
Electricity,2081Pj, 14%
LNG, 427 Pj,
3%
Natural
Gas, 1221Pj,
8%
Petroleum Products,
6523 Pj, 45%
Commercial Energy Requirement, Domestic Production and Imports for
8 percent Growth: Base scenario
Fuel
Oil (Mt)
N Gas+ CBM
(Mtoe)
Coal (Mtoe)
Others (Mtoe)
TPCES
Comm
Energy
2020
Comm
Energy
2030
Dom.
Imports
Prod 2030 2030
Import
2030
(Percent)
(R)
(P)
(I/R)
(I)
259
453
35
52
93
100
511
923
560
41
1553
418
93
0
363
39
82
0
0
1553
781
50
• Potential for nuclear power is limited. By 2030, it can at most
contribute 7 to 8 % of electrical energy.
• Bio fuels are limited by the availability of cultivable land
• Solar power has substantial potential.
• The low hanging fruit is energy efficiency
India’s GHG Emissions in the Global Context
• The total GHG emissions from India in 2007 were 1727.7 million
tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• India’s total CO2 emissions in 2007 were less than one fifth that of
USA and China.
• In per capita terms India emitted 1.18 tonnes of Co2, China four
times as much and US 16 times as much.
• Emission intensity of India is 0.28 kg of CO2/$ of GDP in purchasing
power parity (PPP) terms, China’s more than twice as high and
USA’s also nearly twice as high.
Energy Related Cumulative CO2 Emissions
Country
MT of CO2
MT of CO2
Percent
Percent
1990-2006
1850-2006
1990-2006
1850-2006
World
400834
1000000
100
100
India
15977
27433
4
2
China
61360
99204
15
9
Brazil
4925
9457
1
1
USA
92641
333747
23
29
Europe15
55377
252148
14
22
Annex I
237534
856115
59
74
Non-Annex I
157582
281497
39
25
• India’s contribution since 1850 to global emissions is only 2.4
percent while that of USA is 29 percent.
• Since 1990, India’s share is 4 percent in emissions, China’s 15
percent and USA’s 23 percent.
The Structure of India’s Emissions
GHG emissions by sector
• Electricity accounts for 38 percent of the GHG emissions in
2007.
• Agriculture accounts for 18 percent of the GHG emissions
CO2 Emission Distribution across Sectors in 2007.
• The electricity sector accounted for 51 per cent.
• 10 percent of the CO2 emission was from the
transport sector.
• Manufacturing industries together accounted for 29
per cent.
Strategy for Low Carbon Growth
A Low Carbon
Strategy.
Determined
Effort
Aggressive
Effort
)
8% Growth
Rate
9% Growth
Rate
8% Growth
Rate
9% Growth
Rate
Emissions in 2020 with 8 % growth rate as per 2005 intensity and
Reductions in MT CO2 and per cent
Sectors
Power
Emissions as Determined
Aggressive
Percen
Percent
per 2005 norm effort MT CO2
effort MT CO2 t
1609
DSM
96
6
201
13
Supply side
Transport
85
5
145
9
14
3
22
5
17
4
24
5
11
2
17
4
Freight modal
shift
Passenger
modal shift
Vehicle fuel
efficiency
476
Table Continued on the next slide….
Industry
Iron & Steel
442
36
8
82
19
393.5
57.5
15
100
25
Oil & Gas
154
29
19
39
25
Other Industries
285
40
14
100
35
Commercial
610
60
10
122
20
Other Household
Energy
270
15
6
41
15
150
15
10
32
21
155
16
10
33
21
Cement
Buildings
Waste
Management
Miscellaneous
Projected Emission Intensity Reduction over 2005 levels
Growth Scenarios:2020
8% growth
9% growth
Higher and Lower 2005
Ends of the Range Emissions
DE
AE
DE
AE
Emission Intensity
(grams CO2eq/Rs
GDP)
42.47
36.87
42.79
37.51
24.44%
34.40%
23.88%
33.27%
(%) Reduction in
Emission Intensity
56.21
• Emission intensity reduction of around 24.44 % with determined
effort and 34.4 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.
• Emission intensity reduction of around 23.88 % with determined
effort and 33.27 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.
Policy Options
Promoting Energy Efficiency
Lighting
o A compact fluorescent lamp (CFL)
o costs 7 to 10 times as much as IL
o An LED lamp consumes even less of electricity than a CFL but costs
much more .
Energy Efficient Appliances
o
o
o
o
Energy rating scheme.
The label - electricity consumed and energy efficiency.
Private individuals and firms can buy on Life cycle cost.
But not procurement officers of public sectors firms or government
departments buy on first cost basis
Rating and Characteristics of a 1.5 ton Air-conditioner (used 4
hours a day)
Star
ranking
No star
1
2
3
4
5
Energy Efficiency Ratio
(Min)
Consumption
Per day
Cost Saving
Per year
kWh
Rs.
2.2
9.45
0
2.3
9.04
308
2.5
8.32
851
2.7
7.7
1313
2.9
7.17
1712
3.1
6.71
2059
Present Discounted value in Rupees of saving over no star model over
5 years at discount rate.
Star rating
1
10 %
15%
1168
1032
2
3226
2853
3
4977
4401
4
6490
5739
5
7805
6902
Promoting Energy Efficiency in Industry
o Concentrating on new industries to set up energy efficient plants is
an attractive option.
o Labeling for industrial equipment, such as variable speed drives,
can be effective if energy prices are competitively determined.
o Trade parity prices for fuels.
o
Perform achieve and trade (PAT) is being introduced for industries.
It covers only some 700 large firms
o The BEE is examining some 25 clusters to see how there SMEs can
be incentivized to improve energy efficiency.
Electricity Supply
o National Solar Mission to make Solar Electricity cost competitive to coal
based electricity by 2020 or latest by 2030.
o Firms are required to bid for the feed in tariff they need and the first auction
has already lowered the feed in tariff to Rs 15/ kWhr from the ceiling of Rs
15.
o State electricity regulatory commissions announced renewable portfolio
obligation and the certificates can be traded, for which power exchanges
provide electronic trading platforms.
Energy Conservation in Buildings
o
Appropriate design using natural sunlight and appropriate orientation,
insulation and natural sources of cooling and heating.
o
BEE in India enacted an energy conservation building code (ECBC).
Transport
o The stock of automobiles has been growing at more than 20 % in
recent years and two wheelers even faster.
o Shift long distance freight movement from trucks to trains: Moving a
billion tonne-km of goods by rail compared to road can save 30 Mt of
diesel and save 54 Mt of Co2 .
o Improve mass transport in urban areas of quality that induces
vehicle owners to travel by it
o Design cities that reduce need for travel and encourage walking and
cycling
o Improve fuel efficiency of vehicles
Conclusion
• For sustainable development, manage resources and environment
well
• Improve energy use efficiency
• Encourage renewable sources of energy
• India can reduce by 2020 its emission intensity by 25 % compared
with 2005 as was declared at Copenhagen.
Thank You