Ninth Replenishment of IFAD’s Resources
Results Measurements Framework 20132015
24-25 October 2011
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IFAD9 Priorities
During IFAD9, priorities will be to:
• Strengthen programmatic outcomes and impact (by enhancing
efficiency of projects, effectiveness in achieving development objectives,
impact on rural poverty, sustainability, & scaling up)
• Enhance effectiveness of country programmes and
projects (through improved integration of lending and non-lending
instruments, enhanced project design, greater attention to fragile states, more
proactive management of the on-going project portfolio)
• Increase organizational effectiveness and efficiency
(by increasing institutional cost-effectiveness, raising the share of resources
dedicated to programme management, extending decentralization,
and improving human resources management.)
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3
Level 1: Macro level: overall global poverty reduction and
agricultural development
Level 2: IFAD’s contribution to
development outcomes and impact at project/programme completion
Level 3: Outputs of country programs and projects under
implementation
Level 4: Leading indicators of
quality of design and implementation support for country programmes
and project s
Level 5: IFAD’s Organizational
effectiveness and efficiency
Attribution to IFAD Strengthens
Outcome more relevant to IFAD Objectives
Results Measurement Framework:
the results chain
IFAD’s RMF in the context of its operating model
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What changes in IFAD9 ?
• More focus on gender, nutrition, environment, climate
change, private sector engagement, economic efficiency,
innovation and scaling-up
• Country leadership and in-country planning, reflected in
COSOPs and projects
• IFAD country offices to expand and take on more
responsibility
• Partnerships with all actors, also for cofinancing
• Better monitoring and reporting on results, especially at
outcome and impact levels
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Global poverty and agricultural development
outcomes (Level 1)
Existing indictors: only baselines and targets updated
Indicators
1.1.
Global poverty and nutrition outcomes
1.1.1
MDG 1: Population living on less than US$1.25 a day
(per cent)a
MDG 1: Prevalence of undernourishment in population
(per cent)a
1.1.2
1.1.3
MDG 1: Children under 5, per cent underweight
1.2.
Global agricultural development and investments
outcomes
1.2.1
Crop production index (1999-2001 = 100)b
1.2.2
Agricultural value added (annual percentage growth)b
1.2.3
Level of official development assistance to agriculture
1.2.4
Share of budget allocated to agriculture and rural
development
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Source
Baseline
year
Baseline
value
Target
for 2015
World Bank
1990
42
21
World Bank
2005-2007
16
10
World Bank
2008
26
17
World Bank
2007
117
Tracked
World Bank
2007
4
Tracked
World Bank
2008
US$4.9 billion
Tracked
World Bank
2008
19%
Tracked
Global poverty and agricultural development
outcomes (Level 2)
Existing indicators: only baselines and targets updated
a, b
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Refers to percentage of IFAD financed projects rated at moderately satisfactory or better at completion point.
IFAD’s contribution to development outcomes
and impact (level 2) cont’d.
New or modified indicators for the 9th Replenishment
Indicators
Source
Baseline
year
Baseline
value
(%)
Target for
2015
(%)
2.1.
Impact Indicators (new)
2.1.1
Innovation and learning (modified)
PCR
2010
86
90
2.1.2
Replication and scaling-up (modified)
PCR
2010
85
90
2.1.3
Environment and natural resource management (new)
PCR
2010
88
90
2.1.4
Government performance (new)
PCR
2010
73
80
2.2.1
Household asset ownership index (new)
RIMS
-
-
Tracked
2.2.2
Level of child malnutrition (3 sub-indicators - acute,
chronic and underweight), disaggregated for girls and
boys (new)
RIMS
-
-
Tracked
2.2.3
Length of hungry season (new)
RIMS
-
-
Tracked
2.3.
People moved out of poverty
RIMS/
sample
impact
surveysb/
2010
36 million
50-100 (a)
million
2.3.1
People moved out of poverty (new)
(a) Responding on level of replenishment
(b) Methodology being worked out. Preliminary discussion with IFPRI was held recently.
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IFAD's contribution to country programme
and project outputs (level 3)
Most indicators retained, 2 additional indicators (3.7 and 3.8)
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IFAD's contribution to country programme
and project outputs (level 3) cont’d.
Existing indicators: only baselines and targets updated
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Operational effectiveness of country
programmes and projects (level 4)
Existing indicators: only baselines and targets updated
Indicators
4.1
Country programme quality at entry
4.1.1
Percentage of RB-COSOPs rated 4 or bettera
4.2
Percentage of country programmes rated 4 or better during
implementation for:
4.2.1
Contribution to increased incomes, improved food security, and
empowerment of poor rural women and men
4.2.2
Adherence to the aid effectiveness agenda
4.3
Percentage of projects rated 4 or better at entry
4.3.1
Gender
4.4
Portfolio management
4.4.1
Time from project approval to first disbursement (months)
e
Source
Baseline year
Baseline
value
(%)
Target for
2015
(%)
COSOP QAb
2010
100
100
Client survey
2011
78
90
CPISc
2011
93
100
QA
2010/11
86
90
PPMSd
2010/2011
17
14
4.4.2
Proactivity index
PPMS
2010/2011
50
75
4.4.3
Projects at risk
PPMS
2010/2011
18
15
4.4.4
Project time overrun (percentage)
PPMS
2010/2011
22
18
4.4.5
Time for withdrawal application processing (days)
PPMS
2009/2010
28
20
4.4.6
Percentage of projects for which IFAD performance is rated
moderately satisfactory or better
ARRI
2009/10
71
80
a Earlier score of 4 or better, converted into percentage; a cut-off score of 4 or above indicates a positive rating. IFAD uses more
nuanced ratings (5 and 6) for internal monitoring purposes.
b Quality assurance (QA) ratings provided for each project prior to submission for approval by the Executive Board.
c Country programme issue sheet.
d Generated by the Project Portfolio Management System.
e Percentage of problem projects for which corrective actions are taken.
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Operational effectiveness of country
programmes and projects (level 4) cont’d.
New or modified indicators
Indicators
Source
Baseline year
Baseline
value
(%)
Target for
2015
(%)
4.2
Percentage of country programmes rated 4 or better during
implementation for:
4.2.1
Engagement in national policy dialogue (new)
Client survey
2011
55
70
4.2.2
Partnership-building (new)
Client survey
2012
TBD
TBD
4.3
Percentage of projects rated 4 or better at entry
4.3.1
Overall average (new)
QA
2010/11
79
85
4.3.2
Overall average for projects in fragile states only (new)
QA
2010/11
n/a
80
4.3.3
Monitoring and evaluation (new)
QA
2010/11
70
80
4.3.4
Percentage of projects receiving positive ratings on scaling-up
(modified)
QA
2010/11
72
80
4.4
Portfolio management
4.4.1
Percentage disbursement ratio (new)
PPMS
mid-2011
15.7
18
4.5
Project monitoring and evaluation
4.5.1
Percentage of projects with RIMS or equivalent baseline
surveys (cumulative percentage) (new)
office records
Mid-2011
23
40
office records
Mid-2011
70
95
PCR review
2010-11
80
90
(a)
4.5.2
Percentage of projects submitting RIMS impact survey (new)
4.5.3
PCR quality (percentage rated 4 or better) (new)
(a) On selective basis, randomized control trials (RCTs) or similar vigorous methodology will be applied.
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Organizational effectiveness and efficiency
(level 5)
Existing indicators: only baselines and targets updated
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Organizational effectiveness and efficiency
(level 5) cont’d.
New or modified indicators for the 9th Replenishment
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Organizational effectiveness and efficiency
(level 5) cont’d.
New or modified indicators for the 9th Replenishment
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IFAD data sources and reporting
Result areas
Data sources
Level 1: Global poverty
reduction
Millennium Development Goals Report, World Development
Report, Human Development Report
Level 2: Outcomes & impact
Project completion reports; RIMS; selective rigorous impact
evaluations, also using randomized control trials (RCTs)
Level 3: Project outputs
RIMS, supervision reports
Level 4: Operational
effectiveness
Quality assurance review, PPMS, client survey, supervision
reports, annual portfolio reviews
Level 5: Organizational
effectiveness &efficiency
Internal performance reports, staff survey
Main reporting vehicles: RIDE & ARRI for the EB. Management will also use the Annual Portfolio
Review Report and Quarterly Performance Conversations.
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Thank you!
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