Leveraging Information &
Decisions for Crisis Management
Rodney J. Johnson
August 27, 2014
All written contents © 2014, Rodney J. Johnson. All Rights Reserved.
Goals
• Learn to think about information, itself; how
valuable it is; what it's qualities are.
• Think about what information you are going to
need for your crisis management plans
• Think about where you are going to get that
information
• Think about how to prioritize and analyze
information for best use
• Think about who is going to best use the different
bits of information you obtain
INFORMATION IS A
WONDROUS THING!
Information IS value.
How much
would you
pay for this
can?
How much
are the
contents
worth?
Information IS Value.
How much
would you
pay for this
can?
Have the
contents of
the can
changed at
all?
Information is expensive.
We use shortcuts
whenever we can in order
to save on that cost.
We use shortcuts because we lack
the expertise to determine what is
information and what isn't.
Indicators – knowing by proxy
Indicators are
"cheap" stand-ins for
actual knowledge.
Validation by
trusted parties.
Different parties
provide
different kinds
of validation.
Indicators As Signs of Trouble
•
•
•
•
Easy: Smoke
Hard: “Gale force winds”
Harder: Troop movements
Hardest: Fingernail clippers in carry-on bag
Information is the
foundation resource.
We should look at it as a
resource that when
properly used creates,
saves, and opens up
other crisis management
resources.
Informs
Determines
All information in
crisis management
is one fundamental
thing: an input into
decision making.
Confirms
Verifies
Validates
INFORMATION AND
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Some Crisis Examples We’ll Use
Simple and Rapid:
The building is on fire.
World Trade Center, 9/11
All high on the
potential pain meter.
More Complicated and Ambiguous:
Something is wrong with the ship. It may sink.
Sewol Ferry Disaster, Korea
More Complicated, Sensitive, and Utterly Unpredictable:
Rioting and Civil Distress in Our Area
2008 Mumbai Attacks
Extremely Complicated, Landscape in Scope, and Cataclysmic:
War, Severe Military Conflict
Conflict with North Korea
Front Loading - A Different Mindset
Pre-Event
Front loading is putting more weight on information that will allow us
to take advantage of plan options before they disappear.
Post-Event
Proactive Not Reactive
1.
If we focus on
information and
intelligence, we can
change our whole
mindset about crisis
management planning.
2.
3.
Enable Planning & Preparation. Use
available information to “front load” our
crisis management decision making process
so that we prepare better and thus lay the
groundwork for action.
Enable Decision Making. Interpret where
we are in the arc of the event to make
better decisions.
Enable Action. Turn crisis signals that might
have past unnoticed into clear messages
informing action in times of crisis, either
before or after key events.
Crises are not uniform.
Information is applied
to a variety of crisis
scenarios and
situations.
There are many
variables of
importance in
crises.
Complexity
Breadth/Scope
Locus of Danger
Ambiguity
Unpredictability
Potential Pain
Information and Time
are joined at the hip.
Information is of
different value and
use depending on
when it is obtained
and turned into
intelligence.
Early
Late
More Valuable
More Critical
More Ambiguous
More Defined
Easier to Gather
Easier to Analyze
Easier to Use
Easier to Commit to
Information & Time: Scenarios
Speed of Crisis Onset = Scenario
Normalcy
0-100: Maybe Never
Planning and Preparation
Slow
Deterioration
0-100: 2 Weeks
Predicting the
future,
preparation, early
action
Rapid
Deterioration
0-100: 2 Days
Predicting the
immediate future,
acting on
remaining options
Sudden
Impact
0-100: 2 Hours
Immediate action
on remaining
options
Use of information obtained during this time period
Using scenarios allows us to isolate variables and show how changing those variables
actually changes the nature of the threat to the organization and its people.
The Scenario Clock
It is the kind of information that we are receiving, seeing, or
hearing, that determines where we are on the timeline: early, just
in time, or potentially late.
How do we know
where on the
timeline we are?
How do we know
how close to the
danger? How close
to the pain event?
NK Conflict
Plan, Prepare, Train
Scenarios
Normalcy
Mumbai Attack
Plan, Prepare, Train
Information IS the crisis clock. It helps us identify what
scenario we are in, and therefore helps us determine the
decisions we should make.
Time doesn’t just drive
information usage.
Information tells us
what time it is!
Leave the Country
Slow
Deterioration
Leave the City
Leave the City
Rapid
Deterioration
Leave the Site
Mind.
Blown.
Take Immediate Shelter
Sudden
Impact
Hide, Barricade, Arm
Information Aging
Information can age
before or after you
obtain it.
Less
Time to
Act
Information ages for a variety
of reasons.
Collected Late
Not monitoring at all
Monitored the wrong sources
Understood late
Not analyzed
Didn’t recognize significance
Costly validation
Acted-On Late
Procrastination
Untrained
Unprepared
Fewer
Options
Less Useful
Decisions
Information aging is
really the worsening of
all the other elements of
crisis management.
GETTING AND USING INFORMATION
FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT PLANNING
How do we know what information we need?
The type and content of information is driven by the risks the organization and its members are LIKELY to face.
The Drivers of Risk
Internal Drivers of Risk
External Drivers of Risk
Knowledge of the Plan
Ability to Communicate
Preparedness
Ability to Move
Plan Flexibility
Access to Assets and Resources
Existence & Usefulness of Plan Assets
Locus and Proximity of Crisis
Quality of Communications Between Participants
Severity and Criticality of Impact on Operations
Willingness of Participants to Stick to the Plan
Speed of Onset, Movement, & Expansion
Quality of Decision Making
Impact of Decisions Made By Third Parties
Mostly Under Our Control
Largely Out of Our Control
Solved through better management, preparation,
training, and execution of the crisis management plan.
Managed through better information analyzed into
better intelligence leading to better decisions.
The Obstacles
The
Information is
Recognized Expensive.
Obstacles
We may not have the
expertise we need.
The
Unrecognized
Obstacles
Normalcy Bias
Bulk Information Problem
– Everything is a potential
indicator
The Knowing-Doing Gap
We may not be
structured well for
using the information
we do have.
Clarity-Time Problem
Un-realized Structure
Problem
Expert-Level Problems
The Capabilities/Intentions Problem
The Objectivity Problem - "everyone has pet theories"
The "On The Ground" Mistake
Pre-Selected Indicators
Pre-selected indicators are a way to
short-circuit many of the obstacles to
information gathering, analysis, and
usage. Remember, indicators are a
proxy for actually knowing.
Not all indicators are made equal
We're looking for indicators
that could signal changes in
the threat environment.
We're looking for indicators
that could signal our
response options are invalid.
Some indicators are not easy to
recognize.
Some indicators don't provide any
information because we may dismiss
them out of hand.
Some indicators don't actually illuminate
anything. They are indicators of nothing.
We're looking for indicators
that crucial decision points
are about to be reached.
We’re looking for indicators
that will determine the best
paths for taking action.
Some Indicator Types
•
Deviations from the situational norm:
–
–
–
–
•
Actions taken by relevant parties:
–
–
–
•
announcements, threats, declarations, denials (actual
words spoken, timing, nature of speaking authority)
Decisions made by relevant authorities:
–
–
•
police deployed (riots),
EBS (civil distress),
military cancels base passes (conflict)
Words spoken by relevant authorities:
–
•
shops are closed (riots),
stock market is dropping like a rock (conflict),
employees not coming to work (epidemic),
building systems not functioning properly (fire/terrorism)
activate reserve (conflict),
regulator closes stock market (conflict),
Actual crisis event:
–
–
–
accidents (planes collide),
intentional malevolent actions (border incursion),
boat taking on water, smoke and flames visible,
Decisive Indicators: Triggers
Decisiveness.
Good triggers are
decisive. Unambiguous,
they don't require a lot
of thinking and
expertise to evaluate
once seen.
Leadership.
Good triggers provide
leadership. They
actually help you make
decisions, by
communicating to
everyone involved the
gravity of the situation.
Meaningfulness.
Good triggers are more
than just events or
developments. They
provide a window into
how other entities are
seeing the same events
we're seeing.
Some Notes:
Triggers don’t live on a vacuum. Context is still important. (speech and action, for example)
Triggers are linked to each other and everything else.
Triggers travel in groups.
Triggers can and should be prioritized and weighted.
A single indicator is powerful but the preponderance of the evidence is what persuades.
The Knowledge Management Process
• Determining data requirements
• Choosing triggers and indicators
• Determining sources for required info
Determining
Requirements
Monitoring/Gathering
Information
• Monitoring sources
• Looking for new potential indicators
Authenticating
Knowledge
Don’t forget to
COMMUNICATE!
You can communicate
anywhere in the process
and must communicate at
the end.
No one indicator can stand on
its own as a completely
persuasive argument. This is
because everything is linked
together.
• Analyzing collected information
• Confirming indications are real
Reviewing the Plan
• Where are we on the timeline?
• What options have we planned for in this case?
Authenticating the
Plan
•Are the plans we made still
valid?
•Is there one option among the
many that stands out as the
best?
•Knowledge is added back to
indications repository.
Wait for it… Wait for it…
And making a decision!
So what does a good decision look like?
Other Goals of Decision Making in Planning
It should go
without saying
that a good
decision is one
that saves lives
and assets.
But, unfortunately
life is usually more
complicated than
that.
Increase
Redundancy
Decrease Reliance
on Efficient
Linkages
Increase
Robustness of the
Plan
Convey
Confidence to
Participants