Leveraging Information & Decisions for Crisis Management Rodney J. Johnson August 27, 2014 All written contents © 2014, Rodney J. Johnson. All Rights Reserved. Goals • Learn to think about information, itself; how valuable it is; what it's qualities are. • Think about what information you are going to need for your crisis management plans • Think about where you are going to get that information • Think about how to prioritize and analyze information for best use • Think about who is going to best use the different bits of information you obtain INFORMATION IS A WONDROUS THING! Information IS value. How much would you pay for this can? How much are the contents worth? Information IS Value. How much would you pay for this can? Have the contents of the can changed at all? Information is expensive. We use shortcuts whenever we can in order to save on that cost. We use shortcuts because we lack the expertise to determine what is information and what isn't. Indicators – knowing by proxy Indicators are "cheap" stand-ins for actual knowledge. Validation by trusted parties. Different parties provide different kinds of validation. Indicators As Signs of Trouble • • • • Easy: Smoke Hard: “Gale force winds” Harder: Troop movements Hardest: Fingernail clippers in carry-on bag Information is the foundation resource. We should look at it as a resource that when properly used creates, saves, and opens up other crisis management resources. Informs Determines All information in crisis management is one fundamental thing: an input into decision making. Confirms Verifies Validates INFORMATION AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT Some Crisis Examples We’ll Use Simple and Rapid: The building is on fire. World Trade Center, 9/11 All high on the potential pain meter. More Complicated and Ambiguous: Something is wrong with the ship. It may sink. Sewol Ferry Disaster, Korea More Complicated, Sensitive, and Utterly Unpredictable: Rioting and Civil Distress in Our Area 2008 Mumbai Attacks Extremely Complicated, Landscape in Scope, and Cataclysmic: War, Severe Military Conflict Conflict with North Korea Front Loading - A Different Mindset Pre-Event Front loading is putting more weight on information that will allow us to take advantage of plan options before they disappear. Post-Event Proactive Not Reactive 1. If we focus on information and intelligence, we can change our whole mindset about crisis management planning. 2. 3. Enable Planning & Preparation. Use available information to “front load” our crisis management decision making process so that we prepare better and thus lay the groundwork for action. Enable Decision Making. Interpret where we are in the arc of the event to make better decisions. Enable Action. Turn crisis signals that might have past unnoticed into clear messages informing action in times of crisis, either before or after key events. Crises are not uniform. Information is applied to a variety of crisis scenarios and situations. There are many variables of importance in crises. Complexity Breadth/Scope Locus of Danger Ambiguity Unpredictability Potential Pain Information and Time are joined at the hip. Information is of different value and use depending on when it is obtained and turned into intelligence. Early Late More Valuable More Critical More Ambiguous More Defined Easier to Gather Easier to Analyze Easier to Use Easier to Commit to Information & Time: Scenarios Speed of Crisis Onset = Scenario Normalcy 0-100: Maybe Never Planning and Preparation Slow Deterioration 0-100: 2 Weeks Predicting the future, preparation, early action Rapid Deterioration 0-100: 2 Days Predicting the immediate future, acting on remaining options Sudden Impact 0-100: 2 Hours Immediate action on remaining options Use of information obtained during this time period Using scenarios allows us to isolate variables and show how changing those variables actually changes the nature of the threat to the organization and its people. The Scenario Clock It is the kind of information that we are receiving, seeing, or hearing, that determines where we are on the timeline: early, just in time, or potentially late. How do we know where on the timeline we are? How do we know how close to the danger? How close to the pain event? NK Conflict Plan, Prepare, Train Scenarios Normalcy Mumbai Attack Plan, Prepare, Train Information IS the crisis clock. It helps us identify what scenario we are in, and therefore helps us determine the decisions we should make. Time doesn’t just drive information usage. Information tells us what time it is! Leave the Country Slow Deterioration Leave the City Leave the City Rapid Deterioration Leave the Site Mind. Blown. Take Immediate Shelter Sudden Impact Hide, Barricade, Arm Information Aging Information can age before or after you obtain it. Less Time to Act Information ages for a variety of reasons. Collected Late Not monitoring at all Monitored the wrong sources Understood late Not analyzed Didn’t recognize significance Costly validation Acted-On Late Procrastination Untrained Unprepared Fewer Options Less Useful Decisions Information aging is really the worsening of all the other elements of crisis management. GETTING AND USING INFORMATION FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT PLANNING How do we know what information we need? The type and content of information is driven by the risks the organization and its members are LIKELY to face. The Drivers of Risk Internal Drivers of Risk External Drivers of Risk Knowledge of the Plan Ability to Communicate Preparedness Ability to Move Plan Flexibility Access to Assets and Resources Existence & Usefulness of Plan Assets Locus and Proximity of Crisis Quality of Communications Between Participants Severity and Criticality of Impact on Operations Willingness of Participants to Stick to the Plan Speed of Onset, Movement, & Expansion Quality of Decision Making Impact of Decisions Made By Third Parties Mostly Under Our Control Largely Out of Our Control Solved through better management, preparation, training, and execution of the crisis management plan. Managed through better information analyzed into better intelligence leading to better decisions. The Obstacles The Information is Recognized Expensive. Obstacles We may not have the expertise we need. The Unrecognized Obstacles Normalcy Bias Bulk Information Problem – Everything is a potential indicator The Knowing-Doing Gap We may not be structured well for using the information we do have. Clarity-Time Problem Un-realized Structure Problem Expert-Level Problems The Capabilities/Intentions Problem The Objectivity Problem - "everyone has pet theories" The "On The Ground" Mistake Pre-Selected Indicators Pre-selected indicators are a way to short-circuit many of the obstacles to information gathering, analysis, and usage. Remember, indicators are a proxy for actually knowing. Not all indicators are made equal We're looking for indicators that could signal changes in the threat environment. We're looking for indicators that could signal our response options are invalid. Some indicators are not easy to recognize. Some indicators don't provide any information because we may dismiss them out of hand. Some indicators don't actually illuminate anything. They are indicators of nothing. We're looking for indicators that crucial decision points are about to be reached. We’re looking for indicators that will determine the best paths for taking action. Some Indicator Types • Deviations from the situational norm: – – – – • Actions taken by relevant parties: – – – • announcements, threats, declarations, denials (actual words spoken, timing, nature of speaking authority) Decisions made by relevant authorities: – – • police deployed (riots), EBS (civil distress), military cancels base passes (conflict) Words spoken by relevant authorities: – • shops are closed (riots), stock market is dropping like a rock (conflict), employees not coming to work (epidemic), building systems not functioning properly (fire/terrorism) activate reserve (conflict), regulator closes stock market (conflict), Actual crisis event: – – – accidents (planes collide), intentional malevolent actions (border incursion), boat taking on water, smoke and flames visible, Decisive Indicators: Triggers Decisiveness. Good triggers are decisive. Unambiguous, they don't require a lot of thinking and expertise to evaluate once seen. Leadership. Good triggers provide leadership. They actually help you make decisions, by communicating to everyone involved the gravity of the situation. Meaningfulness. Good triggers are more than just events or developments. They provide a window into how other entities are seeing the same events we're seeing. Some Notes: Triggers don’t live on a vacuum. Context is still important. (speech and action, for example) Triggers are linked to each other and everything else. Triggers travel in groups. Triggers can and should be prioritized and weighted. A single indicator is powerful but the preponderance of the evidence is what persuades. The Knowledge Management Process • Determining data requirements • Choosing triggers and indicators • Determining sources for required info Determining Requirements Monitoring/Gathering Information • Monitoring sources • Looking for new potential indicators Authenticating Knowledge Don’t forget to COMMUNICATE! You can communicate anywhere in the process and must communicate at the end. No one indicator can stand on its own as a completely persuasive argument. This is because everything is linked together. • Analyzing collected information • Confirming indications are real Reviewing the Plan • Where are we on the timeline? • What options have we planned for in this case? Authenticating the Plan •Are the plans we made still valid? •Is there one option among the many that stands out as the best? •Knowledge is added back to indications repository. Wait for it… Wait for it… And making a decision! So what does a good decision look like? Other Goals of Decision Making in Planning It should go without saying that a good decision is one that saves lives and assets. But, unfortunately life is usually more complicated than that. Increase Redundancy Decrease Reliance on Efficient Linkages Increase Robustness of the Plan Convey Confidence to Participants