Before Legco Votes on
Constitutional Reform
Avoidable confrontation or inevitable conflict?
The Hong Kong public shows rising anger and demands for change
June 2010
政制表決之前—
激烈衝突是否無法避免？
猶其是香港渴求改變之音與潛在憤怒日增
Before the Legislature Votes
Hong Kong Attitudes toward Constitutional Reform
June 2010
政制表決之前--激烈衝突是否無法避免？
猶其是香港渴求改變之音與潛在憤怒日增
What do Hong Kong people
want their legislators to do?
香港人希望立法會議員做甚麼？
What should your Legco
member’s top priority be?
代表你的立法會議員首要任務是？
通過可達致2012全面普選的政制改革
Chart/Table 20, p 27
81 % WANT REFORM
希望有改革
Just can’t agree exactly WHAT reform they
want and when
然而，不知道應進行甚麼政制改革
及何時進行
What are party supporters
saying to the legislators they
helped elect and voted for?
對於政黨的支持者，他們對
於議員有甚麼期許？
Support/oppose Gov reforms BY
Which party represents best
支持/反對政府方案—按政黨分類的比率
How many see a party as
representing their interests?
有幾多人視政黨代表他們利益？
Which party represents your
interests best?
最能代表你利益的政黨
Chart/Table 32, p 38
No party represents a
majority, neither does the
government. So what does
a majority want?
沒有政黨代表大多數人，政
府同樣面對此問題。究竟大
多數人想得到甚麼？
Two Minds?
兩種思維
 Government always holds
fake consultations, pandemocrats must reject plan
政府經常作假諮詢，泛民
必須否決方案
 Pan-democrats must
compromise because we
need reform泛民必須妥
協，因為我們需要改革
Chart/Table 6 & 7 p 13
Two Minds?
兩種思維
 People should strongly protest
government reform with hunger
strikes and blocking government
offices市民必須強烈手段抗議政府
方案，如絕食及阻塞政府辦公室通
道
 Gradual reform is better
than no progress at all漸序
漸進猶勝原地踏步
Chart/Table 8 & 9, p 14
Two Minds?
兩種思維
Do you generally support
Govt reform plan?你是否大
致同意政府政改方案
Do you agree/disagree: The
Govt reform plan is
acceptable to me你是否同意
此描述：我可以接受政府的
政改方案
Chart/Table 2 & 3, p 11
Maybe not
可能有另一種看法
 On some things views are clear.
 某些觀點是清晰的
 Most Hong Kong people want reform.
 大部份香港人希望改革
 Most prefer gradual reform over strong protest.
 大部份希望漸序漸進而非強烈抗爭
 But a minority are getting very frustrated with both the pace and
profiles of reform, and with the current problems in governance.
 但是有一小部份人對於政改步伐、內容及目前的管治問題感到非常
焦慮
Who are these frustrated, angry
people?
誰是這些憤怒、焦慮的人
What are they angry and
frustrated about?
他們的憤怒與焦慮源自甚麼？
People should strongly protest government reform
with hunger strikes and blocking government
offices BY Age group
市民必須強烈手段抗議政府方案，如絕食及阻塞
政府辦公室通道—按年齡統計
Chart/Table 10, p 15
Many are under 40
大部份都是40歲以下
Particularly those who strongly support
hunger strikes and blockades of offices
猶其是強烈贊成絕食與阻塞政府辦公室
People should strongly protest government
reform with hunger strikes and blocking
government offices BY Sex
市民必須強烈手段抗議政府方案，如絕食
及阻塞政府辦公室通道—按性別統計
Table 11, p 16
5% of all men strongly support
provocative action
5%受訪男性強烈支持激烈行動
That’s well over 140,000 men
18 and up
即大約有140,000位18歲或
以上的男性
People should strongly protest government reform
with hunger strikes and blocking government
offices BY Education level
市民必須強烈手段抗議政府方案，如絕食及阻塞
政府辦公室通道—按學歷統計
These are mostly
current students此族
群是大多是現在的學
生
Chart/Table 12, p 16
Satisfaction
with
performance
of Hong Kong
Government
對香港政府表
現的滿意度
Satisfaction lowest since
Tsang took office
最低的滿意度是在曾蔭權上
任後開始
Satisfaction with performance of
Hong Kong Gov BY Sex
對香港政府表現的滿意度—按性別統計
Chart/Table 69, p 61
1 in 5 men VERY
DISSATISFIED
5分之1男性非常不滿意
Satisfaction with Gov performance BY
Support Gov Reforms
對香港政府表現的滿意度—
按支持政府方案類別統計
Chart/Table 74, p 63
Dissatisfaction directly
related to opposition to
Government reform
proposals
不滿情緒直接與反對政府政
改方案有關
Satisfaction with PRC
Gov handling Hong
Kong affairs
對中國政府處理香港事
務的滿意度
Table p 69
Satisfaction with PRC Gov handling Hong
Kong affairs BY Age
對中國政府處理香港事務的滿意度—按年齡統計
Chart/Table 84, p 71
A majority of teen-agers
dissatisfied with PRC
Government handling of
Hong Kong affairs
有一大部份年青人不滿意中
國政府處理香港事務方式
Satisfaction
with PRC Gov
ruling China
對中國政府管治
中國的滿意度
Table p 73
Student versus Non-Student BY Satisfaction with Hong
Kong government’s handling of relations with the PRC
government
香港政府處理與中國政府關係事務的滿意度—
按學生與非學生統計
Student versus Non-Student BY Satisfaction with PRC
government’s handling of relations with the Hong Kong
government
中國政府處理與香港政府關係事務的滿意度—
按學生與非學生統計
Chart/Table 104, p 83
Student anger and
frustration WILL turn to
focus on PRC Government
學生的焦慮與憤怒會聚焦於
中國政府
Student BY Satisfaction with PRC
government rule of China
對中國政府管治中國的滿意度—按學生與非學生統計
Chart/Table 105, p 83
A Majority of Students are
dissatisfied with PRC
Government’s rule of China
大部份學生不滿中國政府管
治中國的現況
Damage to belief in
government as a solution to
problems of greatest concern
破壞了視政府作為最關注議
題解決者的信任
36
Do you believe making the CE & Legco members more
accountable to voters with direct elections would improve
performance on solving your problem of greatest personal
concern?
你是否相信通過直選而產生的特首及立法會議員能夠提高
他們解決你所關注的議題的能力？
Chart/Table 55, p 52
Do you think political parties in Hong Kong are having a
good effect or bad effect on this problem (of greatest
personal concern)?
你認為香港政黨對於解決你個人關注的議題是有良好，
抑或不良的影響？
Chart/Table 56, p 52
Has governance and
political failure damaged
support for democracy?
管治與政策上的失敗是否已
經動搖了對民主的支持？
39
Do you support or oppose abolishing
FCs?
你支持，還是反對廢除功能組別？
Chart/Table 57, p 53
Support up, but opposition
increased in degree
贊成比率有上升，可是反對
比率同樣有上升
Do you support or oppose: Directly
electing all members of Legco
你是否贊成全面直選立法會議員？
Chart/Table 58, p 53
Opposition to direct election of
all Legco members way up,
support at lowest ever
measured
反對全面直選比率上升，
而支持則跌至新低
Do you support or oppose: Directly
electing the Chief Executive
你是否贊成全面直選行政長官
Chart/Table 59, p 54
Changes in balance between satisfaction and
dissatisfaction with performance of parties,
2004-2010
2004-2010年政黨滿意度的轉變
Chart/Table 41, p 43-44
On the eve of voting . . .
在投票的前夕
 Anger up 憤怒上升
 The situation:當前情勢：
 Satisfaction down 滿意度下降
 Belief in democracy weakened
 對民主的信念下降
 Dissatisfaction with China’s government,
Hong Kong government & political parties
all up
 對中國政府、香港政府及政黨的不滿上升
46
5% of Men strongly support hunger strikes and
blocking government offices
5%男性強烈贊成絕食及阻塞政府辦公室
 Two thirds are under age 40
 3分之2是40歲以下
 One third are under age 30
 3分之1是30歲以下
 13% of population supports or strongly supports hunger
strikes and blockading government offices
 13%受訪者支持或者強烈支持絕食及阻塞政府辦公室
 70% oppose these actions
 70%.反對這些行為
If pan-dems veto reform, and violence
erupts, who gets blamed?
若泛民否決方案，而暴力行為爆發，誰
會受遣責？
The Hong Kong Government for refusing to compromise?
香港政府阻絕妥協？
The Beijing Government for refusing to let Hong Kong
Government compromise?
中央政府拒絕香港政府作讓步？
The pan-democrats for refusing to compromise?
泛民拒絕讓步？
If pan-dems pass reform, and violence
erupts, who gets blamed?
若泛民通過方案，而暴力行為爆發，誰
會受遣責？
While likelihood of violence diminishes greatly if
reform passes, some may still be greatly
dissatisfied with so little change.
So passing small reforms must lead to stronger
belief in greater change, soon.
發生暴力事件的機率會下降，雖然部份人會因改變
幅度之少而感到失望。而且通過小改革會加強對於
較大改變在即的信念
49
Can students, teen-ager’s anger be
controlled?
學生與年青人的憤怒可否被控制？
Can it be focused locally and not become directed at
PRC entities?
可否將聚焦點集中於本土，而非直接指向中央政府？
What if some entities are hoping, and preparing, for
“turmoil” in Hong Kong, “aimed at PRC overthrow?”
會否有部份人正準備在香港製造騷動，旨在推翻中央政府？
What do people want
changed in reform proposals
to win their support?
大眾如何才會接受政改方案？
How much attention have you been paying to
constitutional reform/direct election discussions and
debates in the media and the community?
你對於傳媒與社區的政改/直選討論付出了多大的關注？
Chart/Table 1, p 10
Support/oppose gov reform BY
Attention
政府政改方案的支持與反對統計—
按關注情度分類
Chart/Table 29, p 36
More attention does not
necessarily lead to more
support for Government
package
更多的關注並不等於更多的
支持
Best Case
(including Don't Know responses with support a change)
最佳情況
(包括「不清楚」但支持改變)
Chart/Table 17, p 21
Most Conservative Case
Support with changes, excluding all DK
最保守情況
支持改變，除了所有DK外
Chart/Table 38, p 42
A promise has most effect,
but would it be believed?
承諾是最有效的，可是是否
值得相信？
Do you consider the NPC’s timetable for 2017 for
direct election of the Chief Executive and of 2020
for all members of Legco . . .
你是否相信中央政府對於2017年直選行政長官及
2020全面直選立法會議員的時間表？
Chart/Table 27, p 34-35
Many, including “patriots” (those
proud/excited on China’s national day)
do not support Government reform now
大部份，包括”愛國人士”(對於國慶日
會感到驕傲/興奮人士)並不支持目前政
府的改革方案
Support/oppose Gov reform package
BY Patriots and all others
政府政改方案的支持與反對統計—
按愛國/非愛國人士分類
Chart/Table 26, p 34
But most youth might NOT
accept just a promise to
abolish FCs
但是大部份青年未必會因只
廢除功能組別而接受方案
Views on the NPC timetable
BY Age group
對於人大時間表的看法—按年齡分類
Chart/Table 28, p 35
The stakes and risks have
never been higher, than
now
如此高風險從未在過去出現
Government needs to amend to regain
legitimacy & increase support
政府須要重新賺取合法性以得到支持
Pan-democrats need to consider the damage
already done and to be done to democracy
in China
泛民須評估對中國民主上已經造成及即將
造成的破壞
Business needs to consider cost of refusing
to reform
商界須評估拒絕政改的代價
DAB, FTU need to consider cost to proChina sentiments and their own future as
Hong Kong political parties if youth are
violently suppressed.
假若年青人被暴力鎮壓，民建聯和工聯會
須要評估對中國情意結的代價及作為香港
政黨的未來發展。
Can another Tiananmen—
in Hong Kong—be avoided?
發生在香港的天安門事件，
可否避免？
An Excerpt from 2005-06
67
Equally divided sentiment
2005
39 percent
support
37 percent
opposed
2010
42 percent
support
42 percent
opposed
68
In Memory, when asked in
Feb 2006
36 percent said they
supported
25 percent said they opposed
69
Feb 2006
Would you support second
chance to vote?
48 percent support if given
second chance
22 percent oppose
70
In Nov 2005: Who will you
blame?
71
In Feb 2006: Who do you
blame?
72
Pre-80s protesters
73
Post-80s
Protesters
74
From
alexhoffordphotography.com
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