Mikael Dahlgren, Forskningsdirektör, 2014-11-19
Framtidens energisystem - 2030 (eller tidigare?)
Perspektiv från Corporate Research
Today’s energy challenge
Cut link between growth, energy use and emissions
Meeting these challenges requires the world to:
Reduce the correlation
between economic growth
and energy use

Energy
efficiency

Reduce the correlation
between energy use and
emissions
Renewable sources
of energy
Energy consumption and Economic growth
Has gone hand in hand but is decoupling…
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 3
Existing European nuclear power
Becoming too expensive?
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status.html
| Slide 4
PV comes down fast in price
Much smaller ‘economy of scale’ than traditional thermal power
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 5
“As a whole, the United States is forecasted to
install nearly 6 gigawatts of solar in 2014”. GTM Research
The world is still very dependent on fossil fuels for
electricity generation
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 6
Annual increase of Electric demand and Renewable
production
Solar and wind now produce the average global annual increase
1400,0
1200,0
1000,0
800,0
600,0
TWh
Electrical consumption change
Wind+Solar
400,0
Linear (Electrical consumption change)
200,0
0,0
-200,0
-400,0
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
Year
| Slide 7
Source: BP-Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014
Utilities of the Future
A Global Trend: Nearer to the Customer
“Becoming customer centric offers higher-margin performance and competitive advantage”
© ABB Group
Month DD, Year
| Slide 8

More empowered Customer

Willing to pay for app-like ”service”

Higher markets volatility

Higher info exposure of Customers

Shorter Technologies life-cycles
Utilities of the Future
100%
Renewables
Centralized
100%
Renewables
Microgrids
Strategic and Technical Limits
Renewable political objectives
November
19,
© ABB
2014
| Slide 9
Four cornerstones for the future
Energy
Efficiency
[Fresh]
Energy
Water
The
digital
transition
Natural
resources
Resource
Efficiency
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 10
Land
Urbanization
Vart är kraftsystemet på väg?
Brist på
investeringar
Effektflöden ändrar
riktning
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 11
The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014
“The 10 breakthrough energy technologies”
Ministers etc
representing:
•
Republic of Korea
•
United States
•
Australia
•
Brazil
•
Canada
•
China
•
Denmark
•
EU
•
Finland
•
France
•
Germany
•
India
•
Indonesia
•
Italy
•
Japan
•
Mexico
•
Norway
•
Russia
•
South Africa
•
Sweden
•
United Arab
Emirates
•
United Kingdom




More reliable renewable energy will be
provided to various parts of the world through a
more efficient, reliable and safer system.



It will help us to transform the current energy
system to a sustainable system by enabling
energy reliability and security

Utilization of CO2
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 12
It will enhance the improvements and cost
reductions of carbon capture technology that is
the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas
reduction

It will provide a way to maximize the use of
renewables and to create market opportunities
for emerging technologies before they are
mature
Internet of Things energy
management system
Saudi Arabia

Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine
technology will reduce the levelized cost of
electricity and will improve the reliability of
offshore wind power system
Hybrid renewable energy system


Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs
and making modules more efficient will greatly
reduce the cost of solar power
Advanced offshore wind turbine
technology

It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon,
non-petroleum fuels and contributing to
decarbonize the transport sector
Microgrid
Ultra-efficient solar power

Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will
create more value through electro mobility and
less fluctuation of renewable energy
Advanced biofuels technology
for transport



Advanced Energy Storage
Systems


•
HVDC
The number of wirelessly connected sensing
devices will allow us to gather big data on
energy consumption and will provide intelligent
way for energy savings
Advanced thermal storage

Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will
provide an efficient and cost effective way to
store thermal energy which is involved in over
90% of all energy technologies
http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5
The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014
“The 10 breakthrough energy technologies”

HVDC





© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 13
It will enhance the improvements and cost
reductions of carbon capture technology
that is the fundamental solution for
greenhouse gas reduction

It will provide a way to maximize the use
of renewables and to create market
opportunities for emerging technologies
before they are mature
Internet of Things energy management system

It will help us to transform the current
energy system to a sustainable system by
enabling energy reliability and security
Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine
technology will reduce the levelized cost of
electricity and will improve the reliability of
offshore wind power system
Hybrid renewable energy system


Utilization of CO2


Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar
designs and making modules more
efficient will greatly reduce the cost of
solar power
Advanced offshore wind turbine technology

It will provide a way of shifting to low
carbon, non-petroleum fuels and
contributing to decarbonize the transport
sector
Microgrid


Breakthroughs in energy storage systems
will create more value through electro
mobility and less fluctuation of renewable
energy
Advanced biofuels technology for transport
Ultra-efficient solar power

More reliable renewable energy will
be provided to various parts of the
world through a more efficient,
reliable and safer system.
Advanced Energy Storage Systems



The number of wirelessly connected
sensing devices will allow us to gather big
data on energy consumption and will
provide intelligent way for energy savings
Advanced thermal storage

Breakthroughs in thermal storage system
will provide an efficient and cost effective
way to store thermal energy which is
involved in over 90% of all energy
technologies
http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5
Where are the potential for Offshore wind?
Wind, shallow water, and close to population…
1/3 can produce 1000 TWh
annually  EU 28 Need
© ABB Group
Month DD, Year
| Slide 14
DC breaker for future HVDC systems
DC interruption
DC GRID
© ABB Group
November 19, 2014 | Slide 15
DC Breaker
There are several possible approaches for achieving
DC interruption. Two conceptually different approaches
are using semi-conductors or creating a current zero
crossing, which does not naturally occur in DC. A zero
crossing may for instance be achieved by injection of
an oscillating current, which added to the DC fault
current causes a current zero and interruption. Two
different approaches are presented in the next slides,
the hybrid and the purley mechanical. These are
currently under investigation/development.
HVDC breaker challenge
Fast interruption and isolation of faults
Breaker operation time
© ABB Group
November 19, 2014 | Slide 16
Kraft elektronik – Nyckel teknologi
HVDC Classic
800
1000
600
800
Förluster %
6,000
400
3
Spänning kV
Transmission kapacitet (MW)
Mer kraft och lägre förluster
4,000
2,000
HVDC Light
1
200
1970
1990
2010
Kapacitet upp 6 gånger sedan 2000;
Voltage upp från +/- 100kV till
+/- 1100kV sen 1970
Xiangjiaba – Shanghai: ± 800 kV UHVDC.
Världens mest kraftfulla länk I drift.
© ABB Group
November 19, 2014 | Slide 17
2000
2010
Kapacitet upp 20 gånger;
förluster ner 3% till <1% per
omriktar station sen 2000
BorWin: 400 MW, 200km sub sea & undergr.
Världens mest avlägsna offshore vindkraftpark.
ABB lanserar 525 kV DC-kabel

Driftsspänning från 320 kV till 525
kV

Effekt från ~1,5 till ~2,6 GW (cu)

Distans > 1500 km *

Förluster < 5% *
* - beroende på design
OKG totalt 2,569 GW
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 18
The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014
“The 10 breakthrough energy technologies”

HVDC


More reliable renewable energy will be
provided to various parts of the world through a
more efficient, reliable and safer system.
Advanced Energy Storage
Systems



Breakthroughs in energy
storage systems will create
more value through electro
mobility and less fluctuation of
renewable energy



It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon,
non-petroleum fuels and contributing to
decarbonize the transport sector
Internet of Things energy management system

| Slide 19
It will help us to transform the current energy
system to a sustainable system by enabling
energy reliability and security
Utilization of CO2

© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
It will provide a way to maximize the use
of renewables and to create market
opportunities for emerging technologies
before they are mature
Microgrid


Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine
technology will reduce the levelized cost of
electricity and will improve the reliability of
offshore wind power system
Hybrid renewable energy system



Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar
designs and making modules more
efficient will greatly reduce the cost of
solar power
Advanced offshore wind turbine technology

Advanced biofuels technology for transport

Ultra-efficient solar power
It will enhance the improvements and cost
reductions of carbon capture technology that is
the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas
reduction

The number of wirelessly connected
sensing devices will allow us to gather big
data on energy consumption and will
provide intelligent way for energy savings
Advanced thermal storage

Breakthroughs in thermal storage system
will provide an efficient and cost effective
way to store thermal energy which is
involved in over 90% of all energy
technologies
http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5
Nät anslutet energi lager (2014)
Compressed Air Energy Storage,
440 MW
Pumped Hydro
Sodium-Sulfur Battery,
320 MW
130’000 MW
Over 99% of
total storage capacity
Lithium Ion Battery,
290 MW
Lead Acid Battery,
80 MW
Flywheels,
40 MW
Redox Flow Battery,
13 MW
ABB Corporate
Research
| Slide 20
Source: Fraunhofer Institute, EPRI, DOE Global Energy Storage Database, Pr. Nat. Sci. 19 (Chen et.al), ABB, BNEF, 2014
Energi lager applikationer
Utility T&D
applications
≈
Transportation
≈
≈
≈
=
Buses:
300 kWp, 2h
=
Marine applications
Ferries (full electric and hybrid)
1-10 MW, 1-2h
ESS
EV/PHEV: 50-100 kWp, 2h
ESS
ESS
Way-side:
1-10 MW, 30 sec
ESS
ESS
15 kV, 16⅓ Hz
ABB Corporate
Research
| Slide 21
On board: 1-10 MW, 5 min
ESS
O&G platforms:
1-10 MW, 30 sec
ENVILINE
Bättre verkningsgrad och tillförlitlighet
Kontrollpanel
Omriktare
Kylning och
värmehantering
Transformator
Ställverk (AC)
Ställverk (DC)
Automatiskt
jordninssystem
© ABB Group July 16, 2013 | Slide 1
3BHS537011 E02 RevA
Energilager
Energiåtervinning
The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014
“The 10 breakthrough energy technologies”

HVDC


| Slide 23


It will provide a way of shifting to low
carbon, non-petroleum fuels and
contributing to decarbonize the transport
sector
It will enhance the improvements and cost
reductions of carbon capture technology
that is the fundamental solution for
greenhouse gas reduction

It will provide a way to maximize the use of
renewables and to create market opportunities
for emerging technologies before they are
mature
Internet of Things energy
management system

It will help us to transform the current
energy system to a sustainable system by
enabling energy reliability and security
Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine
technology will reduce the levelized cost of
electricity and will improve the reliability of
offshore wind power system
Hybrid renewable energy system


Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs
and making modules more efficient will greatly
reduce the cost of solar power
Advanced offshore wind turbine technology
Utilization of CO2

© ABB Group
November 19,
2014

Microgrid


Breakthroughs in energy storage systems
will create more value through electro
mobility and less fluctuation of renewable
energy
Ultra-efficient solar power

Advanced biofuels technology for transport


More reliable renewable energy will be
provided to various parts of the world
through a more efficient, reliable and safer
system.
Advanced Energy Storage Systems



The number of wirelessly
connected sensing devices will
allow us to gather big data on
energy consumption and will
provide intelligent way for
energy savings
Advanced thermal storage

Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will
provide an efficient and cost effective way to
store thermal energy which is involved in over
90% of all energy technologies
http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/Events/CEM5
Internet of Energy
Hur ”Internet of Things” och energisystemet växer ihop
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 24
En hel del av den nya teknologin som kopplas in är….

Småskalig

Mobil

Intermittent och stokastisk

Oberoende av existerande el-marknad
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 25
Hur hantera intermittent produktion som sol och vind?

Spilla produktion



© ABB Group
Month DD, Year
| Slide 26
Kemiska, termiska och
gravitationsbaserade
lager
Transportera mellan överoch under-skottsområden


Möjligt alternativ vid
enstaka tillfällen
Lagra lokalt


Ett vädersystem är
typiskt 200-2000 km
Styra behovet, DSM

Våra förväntningar och
beteenden viktiga

Mätningar, styrning och
kommunikation viktiga
Bättre väderprognoser


Sensorer
Bättre behovsprognoser

“Big data”

Sensorer
Funktioner integreras och data kommuniceras

Integrering av
funktioner


© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
Liknande integrering och
kommunikationslösningar
sker nu också för sensorer
| Slide 27
Integrering av
plattformar
Antalet kopplingar i nätet ökar stadigt

© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
Tyskland har ökat från ~10000 inmatningspunkter av el, till mer än 1.2 miljoner

Solcells-boomen ställer krav på kommunikation

“Transactive” trading
| Slide 28
En del av internet
http://www.opte.org/
© ABB Group
November 19,
2014
| Slide 29
Fem aktuella trender som påverkar oss
Internet of
Things
Big Data
Mobility
The hype
Analytics
4 June 2014
| Slide 30
Cloud Computing
Fem aktuella trender som påverkar oss
Vad kunden verkligen
behöver
Internet of
Effektiv
produktion
Hög
utnyttjandegrad
Mobility
Lägre
kostnader
och
förenklade
processer
Things
Säkerhet
Bättre
beslutsunderlag
Big Data
The hype
Cloud Computing
Analytics
4 June 2014
| Slide 31
Låg kostnad sensorer & låg energi kommunikation
Sensor(er) och kommunikation för under 100 kronor….

Technologi utvecklad av/för bil och mobila industrin

EM(Swatch), Bosch, TI….. Etablerade företag

Exampel:

MEMS Sensor(er) + elektronik inkl. Kommunikation and battery för 5
år för 70 kronor
2.5 * 2.5 mm
Cirka. 3%
noggranhet
© ABB
November 19, 2014 | Slide 32
Sensorer, beräkningar och modeller ger fördelar

TDWORLD, December 2013


5%-20% ökning av märkeffekt rapporterat
Vi kan bli pro-aktiva!
© ABB Group
November 19, 2014 | Slide 33
E.ON SGCC möjliggör proaktivitet
Förutser störningar och föreslår lösningar
Erfarenhetsåterföring
Övervaka
och agera
Operatören övervakar
realtidsdata
© ABB
November 19, 2014 | Slide 34
Planera (proaktivt)
Operatören får
prognoser för framtiden
Remote operations – Framtida kontrollrum
Centraler för flera anläggningar
© ABB Group
19 november 2014 | Slide 35

Nya funktioner och uppgifter för operatörscentraler och
operatörer ute i fält

Distanssamarbete och möjlighet till fjärrstyrd manipulation

Drar nytta av nya interaktionsteknologier för att
levandegöra arbetet
Några intressanta tekniktrender
Bärbart
Gester
Haptisk
interaktion
Naturliga
gränssnitt
Ögonföljning
Augmented
Reality
Autonoma
flygfarkoster
Informationsvisualisering
Rumsliga
teknologier
Mobilitet
3D
modellering
Gamification
Fjärrnärvaro
Internet of
things
3D skrivare