Multi-year Expert Meeting
on Transport, Trade Logistics and Trade
Facilitation
Third Session:
Small island developing States:
Transport and trade logistics challenges
24 – 26 November 2014
Ecosystems Based Adaptation for SIDS
Presentation by
Mr. Pascal Peduzzi
Head, Global Change and Vulnerability Section
United Nations Environment Programme
This expert paper is reproduced by the UNCTAD secretariat in the form and language in which it
has been received. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
view of the United Nations.
11/27/2014
Ecosystems Based Adaptation for
SIDS
Dr Pascal Peduzzi,
UNCTAD Expert Meeting - "Small Island Developing States: Transport
and Trade Logistics Challenges”
25 November 2014, Geneva, Switzerland
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
1 Threats to SIDS (review)
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Main threats to SIDS
Climate Change (global threats)
• Storm and tropical cyclones
(rain, wind, storm surges, wave
energy, soil erosion, landslides,
floods)
• Droughts & Wild fires
• Heatwaves
• Sea level rise (coastal erosion,
salinization of coastal acquifers)
• Increase in sea surface
temperature (coral bleaching)
• Ocean Acidification (impacts on
coral and fisheries)
Environmental changes (local
threats)
• Pollution (sewage, waste,
transport, accidents)
• Deforestation
• Infrastructures (e.g. for
tourism)
• Overfishing
• Sand mining
• Decline of ecosystems
(biodiversity)
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Reduce local pressures
Current
situation
Future (e.g. 2050)
Without actions
Level of
pressure
Pressures from
Environmental changes
(Locally induced)
Pressures from
Climate Change
(Globally induced)
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Reduce local pressures
Current
situation
Aim (e.g. 2050)
With actions
Level of
pressure
Pressures from
Environmental changes
(Locally induced)
Pressures from
Climate Change
(Globally induced)
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
2 Extreme events
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Disasters are seen as fast events…
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
…but disasters are slowly built
They are the consequences of slow / continuous
processes resulting from inappropriate (or lack of)
choices
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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IPCC schematic description of disaster risk
Disaster
Vulnerability
CLIMATE
Natural
variability
DEVELOPMENT
Hazards
DISASTER
RISK
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Disaster Risk
Management
Climate Change
Adaptation
Exposure
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Ecosystems are also part of the equation
Disaster
ECOSYSTEMS
Vulnerability
CLIMATE
Natural
variability
Anthropogenic
Ecosystems decline
DEVELOPMENT
Hazards
DISASTER
RISK
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Disaster Risk
Management
Climate Change
Adaptation
Exposure
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Destruction of Ecosystems
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Ecosystems, Hazards and Resilience
RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY
RESILIENCE
Ecosystems can increase the resilience of population
by providing services such as clean water, food supply (fish, fruits, crops)
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Ecosystems, Hazards and Resilience
Ecosystems: Can reduce frequency or / and intensity
Slope stabilization, buffering wave energy,
water infiltration,…
RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY
RESILIENCE
Ecosystems destruction
e.g. deforestation on slopes landslides susceptibility
coral destruction higher storm surge
Removal of vegetated areas in cities bigger heatwaves and urban flooding
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Peduzzi, P., Chatenoux, B., Dao, H., De Bono, A., Herold, C., Kossin, J., Mouton, F., Nordbeck, O., Global Trends Tropical Cyclones Risk,
Nature Climate Change, 2(4), 289–294, 2012.
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Tourism pressure
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Tourism in the
Caribbean
Cartography:
S. Kluser, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2005
Sources: De Bono, A, Kluser, S., Giuliani, G., Peduzzi, P. (2005) Tourism Expansion : Increasing Threats, or
Conservation Opportunities? Environment Alert Bulletin, 6: 1-4, UNEP/GRID-Geneva
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Significant developments on coastal areas, pressure ecosystems, reduces their
services, increases sedimentation and pollutants e.g. from sewages
Photo : © Ghaya Alghaya
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Digging access for cruise ships
Photos: © Corporate Cruise Consultants
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Pollution from “inappropriate”
sewage treatments
(or absence of)
Photo: © Peduzzi, 2010
Photos: © Ken Tam
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Fisheries, agriculture & sand mining
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Unsustainable fishing practices
Photo: courtesy WWF
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Mangroves
conversion to
shrimps farm
12 Oct. 2013
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Photo : © Tommy Trenchard/IRIN
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
The global use of sand is about 30 billion tons /year
In one year:
this would be
enough to
build a wall of
27 x 27 m
around the
globe
27 m
27 m
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Sand mining: Singapore
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Forest ecosystems
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Deforestation
13 million ha / year
globally
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Deforestation
13 million ha / year
globally
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Monitoring
deforestation
(Bolivia)
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Sources: Poussart, J-N, Kluser, S., Peduzzi, P. (2008) Coastal degradation leaves the
Caribbean in troubled waters, Environment Alert Bulletin, UNEP/GRID-Geneva
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Forest helps the rain to go further inland,…
Evapotranspiration
© Pascal Adaptation
Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva,
2014
Ecosystems-Based
for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi,
UNEP, 2014
… but with deforestation,…
© Pascal Adaptation
Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva,
2014
Ecosystems-Based
for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi,
UNEP, 2014
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… extremes events are more frequent & intense
DROUGHT WILDFIRES
FLOOD
Landslides
soil erosion
© Pascal Adaptation
Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva,
2014
Ecosystems-Based
for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi,
UNEP, 2014
this process enters a loop, expending it further
More
Deforestation
© Pascal Adaptation
Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva,
2014
Ecosystems-Based
for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi,
UNEP, 2014
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Drought can be a factor contributing to human-ignited
forest fires, which can lead to widespread
deforestation and carbon emissions (p.252)
Deforestation
Less precipitations
Higher temperatures
More droughts
More
Forest fires
Warmer
temperatures
More CO2
© Pascal Adaptation
Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva,
2014
Ecosystems-Based
for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi,
UNEP, 2014
Reforestation can solve this problem
© Pascal Adaptation
Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva,
2014
Ecosystems-Based
for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi,
UNEP, 2014
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RiVAMP : Identifying and quantifying the
role of ecosystems
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Negril
Erosion rate between
1968-2006 : 0.5 and 1
m/yr
(large temporal and spatial
variability; Smith Warner
International, 2007)
Observation 2006-2008,
shows that beach erosion
continues (UNEP, 2010)
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Profiles
Data extraction
Satellite imagery
6m depth
Erosion
To classify marine
ecosystems
GIS analysis
Data retrieval and remote
sensing to identify
erosion rate
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Multiple regression analysis
Erosion rate behind sea grass
The model explains 41% of the
erosion (correlation r=0.64).
Sea grass, slopes and waves were
selected as significant parameters
in the model. Sea grass plays the
main role (47%): the wider the
sea grass the less the erosion.
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Multiple regression analysis
Erosion rate behind coral
The model explains 83% of the
erosion (correlation r=0.91).
Coral width and slopes were
selected as significant parameters
in the model. Width of coral
plays the main role (59%): the
wider the coral the less the
erosion.
Coral is 23.5 times more efficient than sea grass at
mitigating beach erosion.
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Coastal ecosystem importance: beach protection by
seagrass meadows
Without meadows
Fig. 11. Modelled bed shear stress
(force per unit area) (SBEACH mode
(wave height 1 m, period 6s) in the
Negril coastal zone
The seagrass meadows spread the
wave force on wider area and
dissipate wave energy
With meadows
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Coastal ecosystem importance: beach protection
by coral reefs
Waves H=2.8 m, T= 8.7s
Sea level rise 1m
Fig. 9b. Modelled bed
shear stress (force per
unit area) (SBEACH
model) induced by waves
in the Negril coastal zone,
showing the protection
effects of inshore coral
reefs
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Results from RiVAMP
•
Climate change “only” account for 9 %
•
Destruction coral (lack of sewage,
sediments,…)
•
Daily removal of seagrass
• Conversion of the Morass to crop land
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Coastal ecosystems: the security belts
Jamaica
Coastal and marine ecosystems provide natural
protection against wave energy, reduces storm surges
and mitigate beach and soil erosion…
Seagrass
Coral
… they also offer other services such as storing
carbon, have aesthetic values, are home of
biodiversity, recreational activities, production of
sand, support fisheries, water filtration.
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Coastal ecosystems: the security belts
Jamaica
Coastal and marine ecosystems provide natural
protection against wave energy, reduces storm surges
and mitigate beach and soil erosion…
Seagrass
Coral
… they also offer other services such as storing
carbon, have aesthetic values, are home of
biodiversity, recreational activities, production of
sand, support fisheries, water filtration.
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Conclusions
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Combining Green & Grey
• Grey infrastructures are sometimes
more appropriate,…
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Combining Green & Grey
• Grey infrastructures are sometimes
more appropriate…
• …the combination of Green and Grey
should also be considered.
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Airport & sea level rise: Barbados
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Sea level rise & airport: Solomon islands
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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Sea level rise & airports: Kingston (Jamaica)
Impacts on harbours and coastal airports: concerns
for SIDS connectivity.
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Panama canal
• In 2009, nearly 300 million tons of shipping.
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• Every lock going downward requests more than 100,000 m3
of water to operate.
• Water management is a critical issue, both floods and
droughts need to be controlled.
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Sea level rise & coastal erosion: roads
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Landslides and deforestation
Protecting forest cover and reforestation may reduce
landslides susceptibility.
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Wall for stabilizing slopes?
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Ecosystems: the “no regret option”
 Natural and environmental friendly
 Cost effective
 Easy, can be done with local population
 Low (if any) maintenance
 Esthetical value
 Carbon storage
 Support biodiversity
 Multiple services
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
…, but more used data is better !
IPCC conclusions on anthropogenic climate change
 TAR, 2001  Likely (>66%)
 AR4, 2007  Very Likely (> 90%)
 AR5, 2013  Extremely likely (>95%)
We do not need to wait until this is virtually
certain (99%) to take actions!
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The “no regret” option:
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
Massive Online Open Course (MOOC)
Pathways to climate change
adaptation: the case of SIDS
Free. Now open for registration at:
https://www.coursera.org/course/sids
Ecosystems-Based Adaptation for SIDS, Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP, 2014
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