Complexity and Development in Small
Island Developing States
Duncan Green
Oxfam GB
Singapore, April 2014
‘I think the next century will be the
century of complexity’
Professor Stephen Hawking, 2000
This is what complexity looks like
Simple v Complicated v Complex
What’s this got to do with Planning?
Some systems are more or less linear
But many are not
And SIDS are special (see Max
Everest-Phillips paper)

More vulnerable to shocks
–
–
–
–


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commodity prices
climate
lower diversity
Import dependence esp food
Short on skilled specialists
Premium on leadership
Denser networks (internally)
“…Small island developing States
(SIDS) have their own peculiar
vulnerabilities and characteristics, so
that the difficulties they face in the
pursuit of sustainable development are
particularly severe and complex….”
UN Sustainable Development
Knowledge Platform
Planning pros and cons
For

Allocating $

Building common
goals and
approaches

Evaluating
performance
against the plan

Accountability
Against

Missing new
windows of
opportunity

Weakens
feedback loops to
outside world

Delusions of
control

Leads to lying
An Adaptive Approach combines
planning and improvisation




Plan for capacity, improvise for
response
Enabling Environment
Sensing
Responding
Enabling Environment

Equip people to experiment and respond
to events
– Rights
– Access to Information

Political Leadership
– Compelling narrative
– Norms and moral messaging
– Steering through shocks

Building Resilience
– Tackling ‘risk dumping’ and inequality
– ‘Sowing diversity’
Sensing

Fast feedback
– Consultative systems
– Sentinel sites and Prairie Dogs

Positive Deviance
– What good stuff is already happening?


Failing forwards
Results for grown-ups (counting what
counts; put more L in your MEL)
Responding





Shocks as opportunities (red button
system)
Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation
Hybrids and best fit, not cookie cutters
Venture Capitalist multiple start-ups
(e.g. via trust funds)
No regrets solutions
Trial and error and Rules of Thumb,
not Best Practice and Analysis
Paralysis
What Kinds of People are Needed?

‘We should move from being people who
know the answers to people who know
what questions to ask.’
– Ben Ramalingam


Embeddedness as a virtue
Beyond specialists (surfers and
networkers)
– Convene others (including off-island)
– Crowd sourcing
– Encourage experimentation, learning and
adaptation
Who else is thinking along these lines?


Thinking and Working Politically
coalition
USAID
– ‘10 Principles for Engaging Local
Systems’

DFID
– Testing complexity tools in Nigeria and
DRC

Harvard Kennedy School
– Developing ‘Problem Driven Iterative
Adaptation’ approaches
And Oxfam?

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

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
‘How Change Happens’ = core
competency
Understanding the system before you
intervene (power analysis, stakeholder
mapping, history)
Increased focus on influencing,
innovation and knowledge
Shocks as opportunities
Resilience in climate change adaptation
and humanitarian response
Results agenda: counting what counts
And Oxfam?
Understand the
system: Power
analysis
Implement,
evaluate and
adapt
How might
Change
Happen?
Intervention:
Select change
strategies
Thanks.
And please stay in touch via Twitter
(@fp2p) or the blog
(http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/)