A _______ ______ is an event that cannot be further broken down
simple event
Formula for P(A|B)
P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
The addition rule
Formula for P(A or B)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
The multiplication rule
Formula for P(A and B)
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B|A)
An _______ is a collection of results or outcomes of a procedure
event
The ________ of an event tells us how likely that event is to occur, values lie between __ and __ , the smaller the value the less likely the _____ to occur
probability
0
1
event
The _____ _____ consists of all possible simple events
sample space
Flipping a coin three times and getting {H H H} is an ____ and a _____ _____ because there is only ____ way to get three heads in three coin flips
event
simple event
one
Flipping a coin three times and getting 2 heads and 1 Tails is an _____ , but not a _____ _____ because the pattern could have occurred as HTH, HTH, or HTH
event
simple event
A deck of cards has
____ cards total
____ red cards
____ red diamonds
____ red hearts
____ black cards
____ black spades
____ black clubs
of the 13, they are numbered as [____] , where __, __, and __ are face cards
__ is not a face card
52
26
13
13
26
13
13
2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
J Q K
A
A _______ _______ is made up of more than one simple event
compound event
The ____ ____ ______ _____ refers to how the more times a procedure is repeated, the closer it is to the true probability
law of large numbers
Properties of probabilities
For ___ _____ ___ , 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
any event A
Properties of probabilities
If P(A) = 0, then A is an _______ _______
impossible event
If P(A) = 1, then A is a ______ _______
certain event
An event is unlikely if P(A) ≤ _____
0.05
Two events A and B are independent if and only if:
_____ __ ____
Because A is not impacted by the probability of B
_______ __ ___
Because B is not impacted by the probability of A
___________ __ ___ __ ____
P(A|B) = P(A)
P(B|A) = P(B)
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
Independent events
Two events, A and B, are __________ if the occurrence of one _______ affect the probability of the occurrence of the other
If two events are not independent they are called _________
independent
does not
dependent
With replacement
Each member of the population is replaced after it is picked, so the member has the possibility of being chosen more than once
When sampling is done with replacement, the events are _____________
independent
Without replacement
Each member of the population may only be chosen once
In this case, the probabilities for the second pick are affected by the result of the first pick, so they are ___________
dependent
Mutually exclusive events
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur at the same time
Mutually exclusive if _________ __ ___
If they A and B are mutually exclusive, then __________ __ _____ _ _____
P(A and B) = 0
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
P(B|A) is an example of _________ _________
conditional probability
Theoretical probability of an event
The _______ ________ to probability refers to the formula
P(A) = ______ of ________ in event A / The _____ _______ of _______ in the ______ ______
Classical approach
P(A)
number outcomes
total number outcomes sample space
P(A’) (“ A prime”) refers to the _________ of A, the outcomes of A’ that are not in A
Flipping a coin and getting a heads, _____ would be the complement
P(A’) = _________
P(A) = ___________
complement
tails
1 - P(A)
1 - P(A')
Random variable (X)
The _______ _________ is represented by an __, a variable that has a ______ ________ _______, determined by ______, for each _______ of a procedure
random variable
X
single numerical value
chance
outcome
a _______ _______ _______ has either a _______ number of values or countable number of values
discrete random variable
finite
a _________ ________ __________ has either an ________ number of values and the values can be associated with measurements on a continuous scale
continuous random variable
infinite
Experimental probability of an event
The ________ ________ __________ is read as P(A) or the P of "A", the probability that event "A" occurs
The formula is P(A) = _______ of times ______ ____ occurs / the _____ _____ of times the procedure is _______
relative frequency approximation
number event A
total number repeated
Requirements for Probability Distribution
__ ≤ ___ ≤ __ for all x
∑p(x) = __
0 p(x) 1
1
Binomial Distribution
A discrete probability distribution that meets 4 requirements or criteria
There is a ______ number of _____
The trials are _________
All outcomes can be categorized as _______ or ______
The probability of ______ is the _____ in all the ______
fixed trials
independent
success failure
success same trials
_________ __________ is a type of probability derived from an individual's personal judgment or own experience about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur
subjective probability