‫תרחישים ככלי בחיזוי טכנולוגי‪-‬חברתי‬
‫אהרון האופטמן‬
‫היחידה לחיזוי טכנולוגי וחברתי‪ ,‬אוניברסיטת ת"א‬
‫‪www.notes.co.il/hauptman‬‬
‫‪haupt@post.tau.ac.il‬‬
‫"העתיד המפתיע ביותר הוא זה שאין בו הפתעות"‬
‫הרמן קאהן‬
Low-likelihood, high-impact events
“futurequakes”: As earthquakes – surprising, but not impossible
Jan 2012
Where there is a sufficiently large number of wild cards,
the probability that no wild card will occur tends to
zero.”
In the long run, wild cards
will shape the future!
K. Steinmüller (2003)
If there are 1000 such events and the probability of each
one happening is 1 in 100,000, then there is a pretty
good chance that one will occur, and fairly soon!
P. Shwartz and D. Randall (2007)
DENIAL
“Denial is a powerful form of cognitive bias….
can stifle creativity and make companies and nations
susceptible to STRATEGIC SURPRISE”
P. Shwartz & D. Randall, in “Blindside: How to anticipate forcing
events and Wild Cards in global politics”, F. Fukuyama (ed), 2007
“Well-crafted scenarios can help
organizations that suffer from denial
about future change to rehearse it in
advance…”
“encourage management teams to
“think the unthinkable”, anticipate
surprises, and try out new
possibilities.”
P. Shwartz & D. Randall, in “Blindside: How to anticipate forcing
events and Wild Cards in global politics”, F. Fukuyama (ed), 2007
Foresight of Evolving Security Threats
Posed by Emerging Technologies
www.festos.org
FESTOS Horizon Scanning & Foresight
“intelligence about the future” and policy implications
~ 80 "potentially threatening" technologies in six
fields: ICT, Nano, Bio, Robotics, New Materials, and
Converging Technologies
Threat assessment of 33 selected technologies
(international expert survey)
Narrative scenarios (focus on Wild Cards)
Prevention, Control of Knowledge?
Preliminary policy implications (focus on future R&D)
10
FESTOS Foresight
Security threats of emerging technologies
Sufficiently maturity to be used in practise (when?)
Severity of threat
Easiness of malicious use
Likelihood to actually pose a threat, in different time-frames (till 2035+)
Which societal spheres would be threatened (people, infrastructures,
economy, environment, political systems and values)
Wild-Card (narrative) scenarios
11
FESTOS scenarios process
FESTOS Scenarios Process
FESTOS WP4
Futures Wheel
Source: Glenn [1994]
FESTOS WP4
March 16th 2009
FESTOS Narrative Scenarios
Describe future threats and their impacts.
Interrelation with social, political, technological, and
environmental aspects make complex threats
perceivable.
Thinking about possible futures and their societal &
technological contexts
 Assessment of threat potential and impact
 Possible interactions among technologies, individuals &
groups
 Identification of cascade and side effects of an event
 Identification of approaches to countermeasures
Narrative scenarios:
Tool for transferring the complexity of a technology-driven
threat to a real life situation in the future
Encourage individual imagination and ideas that emerge
when reading the texts.
Challenge conventional thinking
Support for the understanding of alternative futures
Emotional identification with characters
Suspension of disbelief
Construction of a “Wild Card” scenario
Programmable
matter
Molecular
Manufacturing
Internet of
Things
18
Construction of a “Wild Card” scenario
Programmable
matter
Molecular
Manufacturing
Internet of
Things
19
Scenario 3: At the Flea Market
Everyday intelligent nanotechnology-based products can
be set to self-destruct with a wireless signal.
“Security climate” :
(Background society/political features)
Strong non-governmental actors, Corruption/ organised crime,
weak government, weak legislation/ laws, strong local structures, low
trust in governmental structures, high interpersonal trust, small size of
country, high population density, average natural resources, average
education system, monopoly on the media by the government...
Programmable Matter
Materials programmed to self-assemble, alter their shape
and properties, and then disassemble - in response to
user input or autonomous sensing. Known also as
“InfoChemistry” or “Claytronics” this emerging field
combines
chemistry,
information
theory,
and
programmability to build information directly into materials.
Potential threats:
Ordinary items programmed to transform into a weapon.
A perfect camouflage of any object.
Reconfigurable tools with perfect performance, including weapons, readily
adaptable to changing conditions and mission requirements
21
Programmable Matter (cont.)
Societal Spheres Threatened:
Future R&D?
 Detection of non-metal weapons and other dangerous objects
 Countermeasures, e.g. "self destruction" code/signal in case of unauthorised use
 New techniques to cope with perfect camouflage.
23
Scenario 1: Cyber-Insects attack!
Swarms of cyber-insects attack people and animals.
“Mommy, Daddy, the synsects stung me!” Julie ran into the house in a fluster.
Martin, who just sat down to deal with the administrative stuff for his organic
farm, looked over at his eleven-year-old daughter. On her face and all over her
arms were red marks that looked like mosquito bites. “What happened?”
“Security climate” :
(Background society/political features)
Green ideology is the standard, democratic, high level of access to
technology, conservative, decentralized, high trust level, strong control
of emerging technologies, very repressive against inner opposition,
excellent education system/research
Scenario 2: The Genetic Blackmailers
Individual DNA is misused for extortion.
Scenario background: a new bill addressing secure handling of individual biodata and bio-samples.
Tony Raasonen could barely believe his eyes. Without a doubt the e-mail read:
“If you don’t vote against the Biobank Bill, we’ll publish the results of an analysis
of your DNA on the Internet. Freedom for our genes! - The Movement for
Genetic Self-Determination.”
Security Climate:
New member of the EU, problems with separatists, still in the process of
building a national consciousness, open to new technologies but with
low level of access to technologies, after a period of dictatorship,
government is centralistic, population is heterogeneous, low general
income…
Scenario 4: We’ll change your mind…
A terrorist group uses an acoustic virus to change the behaviour
of a portion of the population for a certain period of time.
“Have a look and see what strikes you.” The chief editor set a stack of printouts on the desk in front of Viktor. He picked them up without interest. The
somewhat gimmicky title on the top page read “Tonal Terror”. “Separatists
from the Southern Province unleash an inaudible acoustic virus. Are the
elections in danger?” Sometimes, it was amusing to see the drivel that the
competition would come up with.
EU FP7 Project iKNOW
WILD CARDS & WEAK SIGNALS (WI-WE) SHAPING
AND SHAKING THE FUTURE OF SCIENCE,
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN EUROPE
Weak Signals:
unclear yet observable changes that may hint at
growing probability of Wild Cards.
Wild Cards Delphi
Physical infrastructures
Social welfare
Security
Environment & ecosystems
STI
Env
Ph-I
SoW
Virtual infrastructures
Economy
Policy & governance
Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems
Pol
Eco
Growing frequency of
floods in Europe and
the world
Lack of interest in
science by young
scholars
100%
75%
50%
SoW
Pol
Increasing SelfMedication
25%
Pol
STI
Growing interest in
wild cards and weak
signals research
Growing efforts to
assist SMEs to exploit
R&D collaborative
projects
Eco
STI
0%
Pol
Eco
SoW
Next generation peerto-peer content
delivery platform
Administration rather
than results a priority
Eco
Fast electronics for
compact lab-on-chip
applications
Neuro-Enhancement
Sec
STI
Migration of internet
services in pervasive
ICT environment
STI
Vi-I
Vi-I
STI
Some observations
from iKNOW Delphi
Pronounced gap between IMPORTANCE and
PREPAREDNESS (policy implications)
Higher priority in the long term (but the main surprise
could be the timing!)
Raising awareness of Wi-We is very important
Privacy - Appraising Challenges
to Technologies and Ethics
Privacy impacts of new technologies
threats to privacy
enhancement of privacy
change of perception
(sensitivity to privacy)
35
Mental Privacy
Oxford University Press,
September 2012
37
www.practis.org
haupt@post.tau.ac.il
high
Possible Privacy Scenarios?
Rejection of new technologies
Privacy is sacred
Extreme version:
“Back to nature”
Low
Sensitivity to privacy
1. “Technology? Not for me!“
2. “Little brothers and sisters”
Limited/conditional acceptance of
technologies: Only if privacy is assured.
PETs play a significant role
Extreme version:
Full-fledged privacy-by-design
high
Perceived benefits of new technologies
3. “Who cares?”
4. “I want this this gadget!”
People are indifferent.
Aggressive marketing of technologies
Massive manipulation of consumers by
privacy-intruding advertising techniques
(brain scans?)
Enthusiastic acceptance of new technologies
Privacy is easily sacrificed for benefits
(security, health…)
Aharon Hauptman, ICTAF
PRACTIS Workshop, Vienna
Low
Extreme version: Big Brother?
Extreme version: “World Without Secrets”
PRACTIS Privacy Scenarios
1. Privacy has faded away
People give up privacy
voluntarily, in favor of benefits
of new technologies
3. People have lost their
control of privacy
They get used, and stop worrying.
Info is gathered about everybody.
Everyone has equal access to
others’ information.
2. People maintain as much
privacy as possible
Effective use of PETs. PbD
4. Segmented privacy
Privacy = a market value, but only the
wealthy can afford it
5. Tailor-made privacy
Some value privacy highly, other
ignore it, but everyone has freedom
of choice
1. Privacy has faded away
People give up privacy voluntarily, in favor of benefits of new technologies
Different goods have become more vital than privacy 
People sell their ”moral” for money
Technological context: ”mind reading” gadgets, intelligent medical
implants etc. are widely used
People make trade-offs in favour of products and services
People give up privacy voluntarily
Emerging technologies are widely accpeted
3. People maintain as much privacy as possible
Effective use of PETs. PbD
People believe in privacy, and do not accept new technologies
as easily as before because of former experiences of privacy
intrusions
People want to protect their privacy. Therefore, effective use
of privacy enhancing technologies (PETs) and Privacy by Design
(PbD) is established
Due to the changes of social norms, the majority of people
have started to oppose the “big brother phenomenon”
4. People have lost their control of privacy
They get used, and stop worrying. Info is gathered about everybody.
Everyone has equal access to others’ information.
People have become highly dependent on technologies and also
highly oppressed by them
Technology context: brain-to-brain communication, medical
nanorobots etc. are widely in use
People are permanently monitored by the state or private sector.
Information is gathered constantly about everybody
People are “sleep walking” into a world without privacy without
noticing, and suddenly they have no choice but to live with it
5. Segmented privacy
Privacy = a market value, but only the wealthy can afford it
The world is divided based on social and economic backgrounds
Technological context: Firms have made two versions of their
technology applications
Emerging technologies and privacy are perceived differently
depending on which “class” a person belongs to
Privacy has become a market value
Only wealthy people can afford to buy technologies where privacy
settings are considered and highly valued
6. Tailor-made privacy
Some value privacy highly, other ignore it, but everyone has freedom of
choice
Technology enables people to achieve tailor-made privacy. Privacy
enhancing technologies (PETs) are available to everyone
Privacy is understood differently by each individual
Freedom of choice is highly valued
Awareness of the possibilities and disadvantages of emerging
technologies is high
New technologies are treated with openness
Responsible Innovation Agenda for Competitive
European Transport Industries up to 2050
www.race2050.org
Technische Universitat Berlin,
Germany
VTM Consultores – Consultores Em
Engenharia E Planeamento LDA, Portugal
Ritchey Consulting AB, Sweden
Interdisciplinary Center for
Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Institute of Transport Economics,
Technology Analysis & Forecasting Institute of Sustainable Development,
Norway
at Tel-Aviv University, Israel
Switzerland
Scenario construction by general morphological analysis (GMA)
A 6-parameter morphological field. The darkened cells define one of 4800 possible
(formal) configurations (T. Ritchey, 2009)