Telecommunication Trend from ancient
time to the first half of this century and its
impact on Information Society
Haybatolah Khakzar
Stuttgart University, Germany
haybatolah@khakzar.de
Telecommunication Trend from ancient time to the first half of this century and its impact on
Information Society
Haybatolah Khakzar
Stuttgart University, Germany
haybatolah@khakzar.de
Abstract
This paper deals with Telecommunication trends from ancient
time to the next decades. First of all, I bring a brief history of
beginning of telecommunication and than trends in
microelectronics technology as predicted by SIA in their
roadmap will be presented. Based on ever shrinking geometries
of solid state devices and ever decreasing size of
telecommunication equipment, the number of
telecommunication subscribers will add up in the next few
decades, until in average every man on earth has a mobile
phone. The demand for higher bandwidth leads us to the use of
optical fibres in networks around the world. This trend also
boosts equipment development, as we will see in another part
of this paper. Coding will be in future very important. I close my
paper with some poems of Ferdowsi, where you see that coding
was used 2500 years ago.
Keywords
Roadmap of Microelectronic Technology, subscriber, mobile
phone, optical fibre, satellite
1. Introduction
50 kilometres away from Shiraz we have persepolis the capital of the
hochamanid dynasty, the cradle of communication. Herodoth
describes in his 8th book part 98 the post system of that time. He
writes that the Iranian have very fast horses. They are kept in places
with the name angereion. Hedjazi writes in the magazine no. 4 of Ptt
that the word post comes from sanscrit and means constant. That
word has been overtaken in Latein. Posta comes from the word
positus which means something like the place where you can
deposit things and this word is in greek pistoli. The first telegraph
was in the year 481 B. C. during the time of King Xerxes when
Mardunieh telegraphed the conquering of Athens. On 24th of May
1844 at 8.45 o clock sent morse a telegraph from Washington to
Baltimore and transmitted a sentence from bible what for marvellous
creates the God. They did not believe
him and said he is Shalatan. Only 16 years after that Siemens made one of
the largest communications
networks from England via Kermanshah, Isfahan, Shiarz and Bushehr to
India.
2. Technology Trends of Microelectronics
The technology of electronics goes to smaller and smaller structures in the
direction of nano electronics. The smaller structures bring new effects in the
semiconductor technology and also new directions. The nano technology
goes two different ways, the top down and the bottom up. In the first case
we go to smaller structures by physical, chemical and mechanical
processes, where as in the second case we will have complex systems by
atomic and molecular structures of the components. The research on the
carbonnat pipes is an important section of research which I can not say
much about it, because it is not my area of activity.
The Roadmap of Technology Trends in Microelectronics, published by the
SIA in 2002 [SIA 2002] shows a dramatic increase in DRAM storage
capacity and on-chip transistor density. This fact is due to ever decreasing
gate lengths in modern MOS processes. The roadmap predicts a decrease
of the gate length of a MOS transistor used in modern microprocessor chips
from 53nm in
2002 to 28nm in 2006, 18nm in 2010 and 9nm in 2016. Using these figures,
the storage capacity on a single chip will change from 512Mbit in 2002 up to
2Gbit in 2006 to 64Gbit in 2016. According to the roadmap, the nominal
power supply voltage of a logic or microprocessor chip will drop from 1.1V in
2002 to 0.9V in 2006 down to 0.4V in 2016. The realisation of threshold
voltage of 0,4 V will be very difficult.
Year>>>
2002
2006
2010
2016
Microprocessor Physical
Gate Length (nm)
53
28
18
9
DRAM Density (Gbit/cm2)
0.54
1.85
4.75
28.85
0.106
0.029
0.012
0.002
1.8
0.32
0.064
0.01
DRAM Storage Capacity per
Chip
512M
2G
8G
64G
SRAM Trans. Density (Mio.
Transistors per cm2)
237
646
1718
7208
Nominal Power Supply
Voltage (Logic, Volts)
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.4
NMOS subthreshold
leakage current (at 250,
µA/µm)
0.02
0.7
3
10
Parasitic Source / Drain
resistance Rsd(Ω-µm)
180
170
110
80
Capacitance (% of ideal
gate capacitance)
22
29
31
42
DRAM Cell
Size (µm2)
DRAM Cell, Equiv.. Oxide
Thickness (nm)
3. Microwave-, Satellite-, Optical-, Internet-, Mobile- and High
definition TV-Communication-Systems
3.1 Microwave communication Systems
Microwave communication is an interesting
alternative to the optical cables. The microwave is outside of dense
areas the only alternative.
Their repeater spacing is ca. 80 kilometres. In most of the time the
microwave is cheaper than the cable system. Therefore the
countries of the third world mostly begin with microwaves systems,
when they build the infrastructure of their communication system.
Unfortunately offers microwave technology not enough bandwidth.
Therefore microwave systems have to use PSK modulation. Just
now labs develop 256 PSK-Systems which is very critical to noise
and can not survive without coding.
3.2 Satellite Communication Systems
Table 3.2.1 shows satellite networks evolution
3.2.1 satellite networks evolution
3.3. Optical Communication Systems
The optical Systems are the most important systems for an efficient
core network, because they are the answer for broader bandwidth in the
future. DWDM and digital cross connects of communication networks
are the answer for the new standards in new communication. The
optical transport hierarchies are as follows:
Networksystem nominal Daterate
equvivalent
SDH/Sonet
STM-16/OC-48
2,5 Gbit/s
2488320 kbit/s
ODU 1 Payload 2488320 kbit/s
OTM
2666057,143 kbit/s
10 Gbit/s
9953280 kbit/s
STM-64-/OC-192
ODU2 Payload 9995276992 kbit/s
OTM2
10709225,316 kbit/s
40 Gbit/s
39813120kbit/s
STM-256/OC-768
ODU3 Payload 401501593322 kbit/s
OTM3
43018413,559 kbit/s
1987 I realised a low noise optical receiver with HEMT transistors and
feedback over 3 stages. I described the results in former conference.
Figure 3.3.1: Bitrate per Cable in Tbit/s
The figure 3.3.1 shows the development of Bits transported over
one single cable.
The squares standing on their corner are representing copper
cables, the upper squares for optical fibres. Just now (2005) we are
able to transport 12 Tbit/s over one optical fibre
using WDM (wavelength division multiplexing). 40Gbit/s x 300
wavelength = 12000 Gbit/s = 12Tbit/s.
The figure 3.3.2 is a prediction of the possible bit rate trends in
optical fibres [2].
Figure 3.3.3 bitstream between the continents.
It shows that the Bit stream between US/Canada and Europe was already
4 Tbit/s in the year 2000.
Alcatel and Wireless companies are planning to build a fibre optical
Transmission between US & Canada and Europe to transport 4 Tbit/s over
only 4 fibres using WDM technology. Some OPEC members and oil
companies are planning to build the same system around the globe with a
length of 30.000 km, using Optical Amplifier Technology.
3.4 Mobile communication Systems
We will have soon everywhere Universal mobile communication systems
(UMTS) with the 1,920 – 2.120 GHz with an average cell radius of
500 m – 900 m and transmit power of 125 mW – 2 W.
3.5 Internet
Table 3.5.1 shows the Internet history
Table 3.5.1 Internet history
Telecommunication technology resulted in the growth of the global
information infrastructure. The Internet, a network of networks, is
revolutionizing how information is accessed and how people
communicate. The Internet has potential to change a person’s
lifestyle with services ranging from shopping, finding local
entertainment to helping with children’s homework. Technological
development in the last several years combined with new network
architectures interconnecting various heterogeneous information
systems created a truly global information infrastructure. Many future
broadband applications such as streaming video and audio, real-time
distance learning, medical imaging, movie downloads, and online
gaming, targing both residential and enterprise targeting users,
demand high bandwidth. An outcome of this demand were several
technologies under development to provide advanced network
services with increased capacity of 40 Gabit/s per second, Internet
Protocol version 6 (IVv6), and IP over Dense Wavelength Division
Multiplexing (DWDM) backbone.
3.6 High Definition TV
The high definition TV of the future will have seven times more
points 720 x 576 points than the todays TV’s with 720 x 576 points.
The Premiere a pay TV organisation, in Germany will bring three
HDTV programmes, for cinema, sport and documentation at the end
of this year. You can buy at german markets plasma flat screens
with 105 cm x 65 cm x 18 cm for only 1.490,-- €. They show brilliant
pictures with these TV sets. But there is still a lot to do to decide the
digital Video Broadcasting (DVB) standard. European
Telecommunication standard institute (ETSI) has published a draft
for Digital Video Broadcasting (DVB). It describes in 70 pages
second generation framing structure, channel coding and modulation
systems for Broadcasting, Interactive Services, New Gathering and
other broadband satellite applications. It will be difficult to find a
compromise between microwave, satellite, mobile communication
systems who have not enough bandwidth on one side and optical
communication systems on the other side, who wants 140 Mbit/s for
a TV programm, because of its DWDM possibility.
4. Telecommunication Subscriber Trends
(in Millions)
Fig 4.1: Trends in Telecommunication Subscribers
The figure 4.1 shows the trends of the number of fixed and mobile
phone users. It shows that we will have nearly 10 Billion handies
around the year 2030. This means, every inhabitant of the earth has
one mobile phone in average, if the trend of the last years will persist.
Figure 4.2 : Long Term Bitrate Trends
The Figure 4.2 shows trends in Digital Access Technologies
for a small office using two different scenarios: The first
scenario is a cautious scenario, predicting that one person
might use a capacity of up to 200 Mbit/s for data exchange
from his home office using modem technology, whereas a
more optimistic scenario predicts a bitrate of about 1 Gbit/s
used by one single person.
5 Trends in Networked Equipment
6. Equipment Visions
Equipment visions is to be divided into several groups.
Regarding Computers, I would like to list the development on the basic
of past inventions.
Calculation machines (Schickard, Babbage, Zuse)
•
The Myth of Thinking Machines (Mortimer Taube 1960)
•
Engines of Creation (K. Eric Drexler 1986)
•
The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Hans Moravec
1988)
•
The Age of Intelligent Machines (Ray Kurzweil 1990)
•
The Age of Spiritual Machines (Ray Kurzweil 1999)
Figure 5.1: Trends in Networked Equipment
Figure 5.1 shows the trend of networked equipment [3]. The TV set is
being counted to the networked equipment. As one can see, each
inhabitants owns at average nearly one TVset. The trend in fixed and
mobile subscribers goes to the same limit, as the above diagram
shows. You will have one equipment for Internet, telephony in fixed
network, mobile and Television.
Figure 5.2 shows trends in screen development [3]. Beginning around
the year 1940, where black-and-white TV sets usually having around
100.000 pixels, increasing to around 600.000 pixels for color TV sets
and around 1.500.000 pixels for state-of-the-art high definition TV sets
(HDTV) in the 1980’s and 1990’s.
Regarding PC screens, there is a trend to increase pixel count using
CRT’s to nearly 5.000.000, whereas flat panel display technology will
probably expand pixel count to more than 10.000.000 pixels per
screen about the year 2025.
The key words of the Computer trends are:
Desktop, Deskside, Laptop, Notebook, Portable, Ultraportable, Personal
Digital Assistants
Regarding mobile equipment: after the handy, there will be UMTS and
next generations.
TV sets will probably emerge into Screen Wallpapers.
Special equipment are Video Games and developments for Handicaped
People like Sound Future for the Deaf .
7. A Vision: The Age of Digital Lifestyles or
The Third Culture
The vision of the future: We will have limited molecules and quasi
unlimited bits.
•
Screen Trends
•
•
Mio. Pixels
100
10
•
•
PC/CRT
HDTV
PC/FPD
1
B/W TV
0,1
1940
Color TV
1960
1980
2000
Year
Figure 5.2: Screen Trends
•
2020
2040
The analogy to the present lifestyle of the mobile society with
traffic by road, rail and air
The history from fairy tales and dreams to recognizeable facts
The trend: Interpretations and predictions utilizing a synergy of
the above forecasts
The future: Limited molecules versus quasi-unlimited bits
Telecommunication establishes an information society and with
that democracy all over the world.
Telecommunication via Internet Universities brings better
education to the people in developing countries
8. Conclusions
The paper gives an outlook into the future of telecommunication. On the
basis of past development trends I’ve tried to picture the future.
Let me close with a sentence of Ian Pearson, British Telecom’s
futurologist, which he said in 1999:
“Accuracy is impossible but blurred vision is better than none at
all.”
9. Poems of Ferdowsi which shows
that coding was used 1000
years ago.
10. References
[1] SIA Roadmap, update 2002, published at:
http://public.itrs.net/Files/2002Update/Home.pdf
[2] Bell Labs, Bachus
[3] K.U. Stein, 2000
[4] Sastri L. Kota, Kavaeh Pahlavan, Pentti Leppanen Broadband
Satellite Communications for Internet Access 2004 by Kluver Acedemic
Publishers
[5] CeBIT, Hannover Messe 2005
[6] Shahnameh
[7] Pejman History of Telecommunication