THE FUTURISTS
Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging Media
Cynthia Calongne, The Institute for Advanced Studies
Acheron LV426
Lyr Lobo’s
Experimental
Design island
Futuring and Innovation
Usability and Interaction
Advanced Game Design
Robotics
Software Requirements
Engineering
Software Design
Systems Engineering
Methods
The modern classroom
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Meeting minds - the value of social media, futuring and innovation in a virtual world
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Social Media and Co-Laboratories of Thought
 Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions
 Influences on potential innovations
 Technology, economics, culture, ethics, legal, political
 Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic
Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects
 Social media culture shift – consumers become producers
 Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis
 Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration
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The one Web
We are the computer
From Ted Talks, 2007 [8]
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At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmill
from a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades
It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts
Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation system
William Kamkwamba’s windmill – Ted Talks [1]
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Sustainability
Changing viewpoints
Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2]
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A train moves down a narrow track
as tables and shops recede into
the walls.
In a matter of seconds, a thriving
marketplace emerges. [2]
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Harmony
Cities are green
Stewart Brand on
Ted Talks
Bangkok train – co-existing
with the marketplace [2]
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The Influence of Social Media
Community
Turbo Tax chat
40% of customer questions were
answered by other customers
with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years
Disaster Response
May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake
90,000 lost, schools destroyed
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Broadcasting the news as it is happening [4]
Warning!
Sensitive content on the next slide
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First Response
When every minute counts [3]
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News in China
Twitter and Flickr
May 2008 Sichuan earthquake
School buildings not built to code [4]
Children lost from
single child families
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Clay Shirky – How social media can make history
“The tools don’t get socially
interesting until they get
technologically boring.” [4]
Consumers become producers
The same tools support them.
People listening all over the world
Twitter announced the quake first
During the previous quake, China
announced it 3 months after it
happened.
Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheap
Most of the media is no longer produced by
professionals [4]
-Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook
- The influence of social media
Photos and Twitter’s micro blogging
news broadcast real-time information on
the aftermath of China’s earthquakes
June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to
Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days
before the anniversary of the
Tiananmen Square protests
The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4]
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Why do things work that way?
Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]
In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use
http://
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Japan’s Technology Forecasts
 Characteristics
 Bottom-up view, begins with
 Structured approach
 Firms
 Organized
 Universities, research institutes
 Firms, universities
 National associations
 Feedback loops
 Chief strategists (MITI)
 Micromanagement
 ERATO projects
 Directing Japanese R&D
investments
 Long term vision
 Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC
 Long term technology forecasts
 Science & Tech Agency
 Institute of Future Technology
 Economic Planning Agency
 JICST
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Technology Forecasters
 Evolution
 Futurists
 Scientific Discovery
 Einstein
 Inventions
 Inventors
 Science Fiction
 Jules Verne
 Futurology
 H.G. Wells
 Tech Forecasting
 Herman Kahn
 Dr. Strangelove
 Think Tanks
 Rand Corporation
 Forecasters
 Forecast International
 www.rand.org/
 www.forecastinternational.com/
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Think Tanks
Futurist, nuclear scientist,
and systems theorist
Predicted the rise of Japan
as a world power
Rand
Corporation, 1948
The Hudson Institute, 1961
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Major Forecasting Techniques
 Technique
 Description
 Delphi method
 Brainstorming
 Nominal group
 Delphi - leader
 Case study
 Analogous problems
 S-Curve
 Looking beyond trends
 Correlation analysis
 Past to future tech
 Lead-user analysis
 Leading edge users
 Analytic hierarchy
 Forces influencing development
 Systems dynamics
 Dynamic relationships model
 Cross-impact analysis
 Interrelated future events
 Relevance trees
 Goal trees & probability
 Scenario writing
 Alternate future views
From p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Forecasts by Herman Kahn
1.
Nuclear explosives for excavation & power
2.
Weather and climate control
3.
More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior
4.
Human hibernation – months to years
5.
Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults
6.
Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation
7.
High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations
8.
Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel
9.
Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel
10. Undersea installations and colonies
From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan
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Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2
11. Automated grocery and department stores
12. Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane tasks
13. Chemical methods for improving learning and memory
14. Greater use of underground buildings
15. Very low cost buildings for home and business use
16. Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams
17. Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo
18. Inexpensive road-free transportation
19. Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at night
From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan
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Global Learning Forum
Research consortium
Researchers and game designers
- Explore the potential
- Imagine breakthrough ideas
- Create transformations
New horizons in game simulation
and virtual world research
Blending social media and virtual worlds
This is not your grandmother’s internet
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Quantum Computing
Research
Matt Purkeypile on a Practical
Quantum Computer Programming Framework [6]
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Gazing Into the Future
 Web science research initiative
 Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media
 Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web engineering
 For more information, visit:

What is the Web Science Initiative
 http://webscience.org/

Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world
 http://webscience.org/wiki/Curriculum

The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation
 http://tw.rpi.edu/wiki/Main_Page
 http://tw.rpi.edu/launch/
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Resources
 Teaching using emerging media

http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/
Lyr Lobo in Second Life
 Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds

http://www.slideshare.net/lyrlobo/presentations
 Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research

http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/global-learning-forum-event-tour.html

http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/game-simulation-tour-in-second-life.html
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http://animoto.com/play/giF9IkshVTXZ3bewYUsXnA
http://animoto.com/play/ktooen8b0XqwLp6HnNEGtA
http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/animoto-video-second-life-summer-09.html

http://animoto.com/play/z2TLLCwEoOt2qonSa5S5Gw
 Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video

http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-music-changes-video.html
 Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music

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http://animoto.com/play/15T3PngF3l68010ryw24SQ
Remix http://animoto.com/play/joPGETsdYQBdcLqIlCwTkQ
 Questions? Contact


Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email calongne@pcisys.net
Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo
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References
 [1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill

http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html
 [2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’


http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html

1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!
[3] Kdingflickr’s photostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years
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[4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history
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http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6872873.ece
[6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove
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http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html
[5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed http://tinyurl.com/yhdeo5q on Berners-Lee
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
http://www.flickr.com/photos/hzdkl/tags/2008chinasbiggestearthquakein32years/
http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html
[7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and
Selling Predications. Wiley, New York.
[8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web.

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
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Acknowledgements
 Futuring and Innovation at Colorado Technical University
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Matthew Purkeypile
Brent Wilson
David Graves
Maurice Dawson
Benjamin Herr
Will Henry
Carlton Lawrence
Katherine Moore
Anne Sempa
Tremayne Porter
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