Space-Based Solar Power
An Opportunity for Strategic Security
Outline
• Trends of Concern
• Space-Based Solar Power
– DoD, National, and International Impact
• The Role of U.S. Government Leadership
2
The Energy Challenge
Our Generation’s Challenge
When asked shortly
after WWII:
“Prof Einstein,
what do you see
as the greatest
threat to
mankind?”
His prompt reply:
“Exponential
growth.”
3
The Energy Challenge
Trends of Concern
Population
Energy
Western Europe Middle East
Eastern Europe 5% 3%
7%
Our Hemisphere
13%
(US = 4%)
Africa
13%
•
Asia
56%
By 2025, the world will have added 2 billion more people,
56% of the global population will be in Asia, and 66%
will live in urban areas along the coasts
Climate Change
•
Increased CO2 production may alter the Earth’s
climate, possibly causing:
–
Rising ocean levels and loss of coastal areas
–
More intense tropical storms & humanitarian ops
–
Agricultural climate change—causing migration, and
shifts in power, ethnic & land based conflict
•
Energy growth tracks w/ population & economic growth
•
Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives come on
line causing inability for supply to match demand,
shortages & economic shock, instability / state failure,
and great power competition
•
Three energy concerns: 1) mobility fuels, 2) base-load
electricity, 3) peak-use electricity
American Competitiveness
•
The U.S. is losing global market share & leadership
•
R&D investments & skilled workforce are declining
–
"a major workforce crisis in the aerospace industry…a
threat to national security and the U.S. ability to
continue as a world leader.”
4
The Energy Challenge
Future Energy Options Must Be…
• Following wood, coal, and oil, the 4th energy must be*:
– Non-depletable - to prevent resource conflicts
– Environmentally clean – to permit a sustainable future
– [Continuously] Available – to provide base-load security for everyone
– In a usable form – to permit efficient consumption & minimal infrastructure
– Low cost - to permit constructive opportunity for all populations
•
A portfolio of substantial investments are needed, but options in the
next 20-30 years are limited…
Source
Clean
Safe
Reliable
Base-load
Fossil Fuel
No
Yes
Decades remaining
Yes
Nuclear
No
Yes
Fuel Limited
Yes
Wind Power
Yes
Yes
Intermittent
No
Ground Solar
Yes
Yes
Intermittent
No
Hydro
Yes
Yes
Drought; Complex Scheduling
Bio-fuels
Yes
Yes
Limited Qty – Competes w/Food
Space Solar
Yes
Yes
* Adapted from Dr. Ralph Nansen’s book, “Sun Power”
Yes
Yes
5
The Energy Challenge
But What If National Leaders Had A Solution…
• That Directly Addresses Global Energy Security Concerns?
• Can Deliver Power to World’s Energy Rich and Poor Alike
• Provides A Truly Sustainable & Clean Energy Path Thru 21st Century
• While Enhancing U.S. Competitiveness and Export Opportunities?
• Today’s U.S. Technical Leadership Can Become Economic Boom
(Space Carrying Trade, Energy Export, Material Science, Robotics,…)
• With Pre-existing U.S. Public Support?
• 2002 American Space Use Poll - #1: Space Energy #2: Planetary Defense
• That Propels A Respected U.S. International Leadership Image?
• Demonstrating a Global Solution to a Global Problem
• And Responds to the Interests of Both Political Parties?
• Benefiting Conservative Business Interests
• Benefiting Liberal Social & Environmental Interests
Capabilities and Challenges
What is Space Solar Power?
• Solar Energy is captured in space
by large photovoltaic arrays and
transmitted via a coherent
microwave or laser beam to an Earth
receiver where it is converted into
either base-load electric power,
low-intensity charging power, or
synthetic fuels
• Sunlight captured in space is many
times more effective in providing
continuous base load power
compared to a solar array on the Earth
• SBSP has been studied since 1970’s
by DOE, NASA, ESA, and JAXA, but
has generally “fallen through the
cracks” because no organization is
responsible for both Space
Programs and Energy Security
Space Solar
Solar Intensity
1,366 W/m2
No Night
Min Weather
Ground Solar
Solar Intensity
1,000 W/m2
Night Loss
Weather Loss
7
DoD, National, and International Impact
Invest, Survive, Flourish and Grow – A Future History
Sustainable Civilization
Stable Population
Stable Climate
Reduce GHG
Nations develop
Travel
Industrialization
Less Poverty
Growth in GDP
Telecom
Tourism
Reusable
Launch Vehicle
Stellar Probe
Export Markets
Clean Energy
SBSP
Beamed
Propulsion
ISRU
Wireless Power
Transmission
Hurricane
Diversion
Asteroid
Defense
Directed Energy
OMV
Tether
Demographic
Transition
Reduce Conflict
Energy
Infrastructure
“Dredge Harbor”
Space Radar
Traffic Control
8
DoD, National, and International Impact
SBSP Economic Opportunities
• Energy Sales
– U.S. Energy Companies & Utilities as Global Market Suppliers of Clean Energy
• Space Access
– Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) for Rapid/Low-Cost Space Access (<$500/kg)
– Space Tourism / Travel
– Lunar resource extraction/utilization following NASA exploration
• Orbital Infrastructure
– In-space Transport and Maintenance
– Space Manufacturing Systems
– Robotic Systems
• Power Generation
– High-efficiency/High-volume Space & Terrestrial Solar Collection Systems
– Space & Terrestrial Power Distribution Technology
• Wireless Power Beaming
–
–
–
–
Terrestrial Remote Power Transmission (Low-Cost Modern Infrastructure)
Continuous Electronics Re-Charge (Expanded Wireless Capabilities)
Enhanced Telecommunications Capabilities (Industrial & Personal)
Enhanced/Persistent Earth Monitoring (Radar Systems)
9
DoD, National, and International Impact
SBSP National Security Benefits
• Space Access and Maneuver
– RLV Development for Operationally Responsive Space
– Increased technical readiness for Space Tethers
• Surveillance
– High Power and Large Aperture development for Space Radar
• Space Structures
– Higher efficiency and Lighter Weight Solar Cells
– Increased technical readiness for Membrane & Solar Dynamic Structures
• Industrial and Science & Technology Capabilities
– Preservation of a Robust Aerospace Industry
– Science and Engineering Educational emphasis
– Advanced Robotics and Unmanned Systems
• Operational Maneuver on Earth
– Increased technical readiness for Direct Beaming of Transmitted Power
– Electricity-to-Fuel Conversion competence
10
DoD, National, and International Impact
DoD SBSP Energy Applications
•
24/7 Off-Grid Garrison Base Power
– 5 - 15 MW/day rectenna
•
24/7 Deployed Base Power & Fuel
– 5-8 MW continuous requirement
– JP-8 via Sabatier & refining processes
– Floating rectenna = sea base capability
•
Humanitarian/Nation Building Power
– Defendable electrical power supply
– Energy w/low infrastructure cost/time
•
Mobile Platform/Soldier Power
– Direct beaming to air or seaborne platforms
– Low-power beaming for soldier recharge
– Enables permanent surveillance/ops
•
Courtesy of Northrop Grumman
Space Applications
– Satellite power/maneuver
– Space-based radar
– Debris de-orbit
Courtesy of Raytheon
11
Capabilities and Challenges
If this has been looked at before, what’s changed?
Technology!
• 40% Efficient Solar Cells!
• Materials / Nanotechnology
• Radar & Laser Technology
• Robotics / In-Space
Construction & Servicing
• Deployable / Gossamer
Structures
• Thermal Protection
• Tethers
NRC-Validated
NASA Fresh-Look &
SERT Studies
12
Capabilities and Challenges
If this has been looked at before, what’s changed?
13
Capabilities and Challenges
Security & the Space Solar Power Option
• Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) is an attractive longterm technology option that involves a compelling
synergy between Energy Security, Space
Security, and National Security
• Japan, China, India & EU already see the potential
• The most significant technical challenges are the
development of
– Low-cost re-usable space access
– Demonstration of space-to-Earth power beaming
– Efficient and light space-qualified solar arrays
– Space Assembly, Maintenance and Servicing, and
– Large in-space structures
• These are in areas that already interest the DoD
and others – and with modest departures to
current R&D efforts could retire many of the
technical barriers to Space-Based Solar Power
14
DoD, National, and International Impact
Proposed Vision & Objectives of Space Solar Power
Assured Energy Security
for the U.S. and Its Allies
through Affordable & Abundant
Space Solar Power
with First Power within 25 years
- VISION -
Assured
U.S. Preeminence
in Space Access and
Operations through
Dramatic Advances in
Transformational Space
Capabilities
The United States and Partners
enable – within the next 20 years –
the development and deployment of
affordable Space Solar Power
systems that assure the long-term,
sustainable energy security of the
U.S. and all mankind
Innovation that
Creates Novel Technologies
and Systems Enabling New,
Highly Profitable
Industries on Earth
and in Space
15
The Role of U.S. Government Leadership
A Potential Action Plan
•
Space-Based Solar Power…
– Should be re-evaluated for technical feasibility and deliverability in a
strategically relevant period (other nations have stated goals & started R&D)
– May offer significant & unique energy security benefits in an international
context
– Requires only a relatively modest additional investment to address key
barriers
– Represents a small departure from existing U.S. (DOD, DOE, NASA)
programs…but involves tremendous synergies with other national goals
•
The U.S. may want to consider a major SBSP program
– U.S. Government can play a significant role because its responsibilities and
programs “straddle” energy, security, and space
•
Next Steps (Action Items/Options):
– (A) NSSO initial situation-assessment architecture study through Sep 2007
– (O) Sponsor a fast-paced directed ‘quick-look’ study (3-4 months; $500K)
– (O) If the results are positive, a larger scale, ‘seedling-type’ study should be
undertaken to add legitimacy (12 months: $2M)
– (O) Results would inform a range of decisions by NLT 2009
– (O) Form a national SBSP organization w/concept demos in 5-7 years
16
The Role of U.S. Government Leadership
Development Steps for Consideration
• “Quick Look” Study [4-months, $500K]
– “State-of-the-art” review using existing NASA modeling tools
• “Seedling” Study [12-months; $2M]
– Technical, financial, environmental, organizational risk-retirement roadmaps
– Identify legitimate SBSP development partner groups
– Build a credible business case
• Private/Public SBSP Corporation
– Congressionally approved entity using successful Commsat model
• Concept Demonstrations [5-7 years]
– Should include international & entrepreneurial partnership where able
– DARPA-led w/NASA, DOE, NSF & DoD collaboration
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ground-to-ground high-power microwave or laser transmission
Ground-to-aerostat-to-ground microwave or laser retransmission
LEO- and GEO-to-Earth power transmission
Space-to-space power transmission
Orbital maneuver & space infrastructure technologies
Low-cost space access technology development and flight demonstrations
17
The Role of U.S. Government Leadership
Joining Government, Commercial, & Int’l SBSP Interests
DOE
Solar Cells
Terrestrial
Distribution
DoD
WPT
NASA
RLV
DARPA
Space
Structures
Tethers
O&M
Nat’l Labs; Academia
Robotics, Materials, Computational Intelligence,
Lasers, Chips, WPT…
- VISION The United States and Partners
enable – within the next 20
years – the development and
deployment of affordable Space
Solar Power systems that assure
the long-term, sustainable
energy security of the U.S. and
all mankind
NSF
Private Investment
Energy, Aerospace, Telecom, Venture…
International “Intelsat-Type”
Corporation
Energy & Launch Services
”We Do These Things Not Because They Are Easy,
but Because they Are Hard…”
- President John F. Kennedy
18
Conclusion
Space-Based Solar Power – A Strategic Opportunity for America
Energy Security
Environmental Security
SPACEBASED
SOLAR
POWER
Economic Competitiveness
National Needs
Bring feasibility to the attention of nat’l leadership - highlight USG’s enabling role
19
Back-Up Slides
The Potential of Space Solar Power
Broad Public Support
2002
200
5
Space Goal
32%
35%
Build satellites in Earth orbit to
collect solar energy to beam to
utilities on Earth
23%
17%
Develop the technology to deflect
asteroids or comets that might
destroy the Earth
4%
10%
Send humans to Mars
2%
7%
Search for life on other planets
6%
7%
Build a human colony in space
5%
4%
Build a base on the moon for
humans to use for exploration of the
moon
3%
6%
Develop a passenger rocket to send
tourists into space
11%
2%
None of the above, we should stop
spending money on space
13%
10%
1%
2%
No Opinion
None of the above
•
Over the years, a number of goals have been
proposed for the U.S. space program including
missions to Mars (Zubrin 1996), space
colonization (O'Neill 1976), a return to the
moon (Spudis 1996), and space tourism
(David 2004). The purpose of this
exploratory study was to measure the level
of public interest in different space goals.
•
Two goals stood out far beyond all others.
The first of these goals was developing the
capability of using Space-Based Solar Power
(SBSP) or space energy to meet the nation's
energy needs. In 2002 32 percent, nearly 1/3
of the respondents, supported this goal. In
2005, 35 percent, again nearly 1/3 of
respondents, supported the development of
SBSP. The second goal that appeared to
receive broad support was developing the
technology to deflect asteroids or comets
that might threaten the Earth with impact
(planetary defense).
2002 Survey - National Space Goals
Matula & Loveland, 2006
21
SBSP is most like Hydroelectric
•
High Capital Costs
•
High Capital Costs
•
Long Payback
•
Long Payback
•
No Fossil Fuel Feed
•
No Fossil Fuel Feed
•
Renewable
•
Renewable
•
2.07 GW (peak)
•
2.5 GW (sustained)
22
How big is the SBSP resource?
363 TW-yrs
Remaining Oil Reserve
of 1.285 TBBL
= 249.4 TW-yrs
More and more of this oil will have to be
used to recover remaining reserves
~250 TW-yrs
Total area of a cylinder of 1km width and
perimeter at GEO (w*2*pi*r). In reality, you
would not build a ring, and individual
powersats could be turned normal to the
Sun. However a ring establishes the max
upper limit of energy and is a good
approximation. For a ring, max limit of
actual radiation available in a 1km band
must be reduced by self-shielding (pi/2),
and perhaps worst inclination degrees
(cosine of 23 degrees = .92)
~212TW-yrs
Annual World
Energy Demand
(All Forms)
50 TW (2050)
30 TW (2025)
15 TW (2007)
All Recoverable Oil
Annual Oil Production ~8TW-yr
Annual energy Available
in just 1 km of GEO
Annual Energy-to-Grid On-Earth 21 TW
assuming 10% Solar-to-Grid of 1 km
23
Drilling Up: How large is the GEO solar resource?
1km
1 year x 1 km wide band
≈ 212 TW-years
All Remaining Oil Resource
≈ 250 TW-years
Every Kilometer-wide band at GEO receives nearly as much energy per
annum as the content of the entire remaining oil 1.28 T BBls of oil
remaining
24
How many 5GW SPS would it take to displace generating capacity?
• Nigeria
1
• India
23
• North Korea
1.5
• Japan
52
• Burma
1.5
• China
68
• U.S.A. Base-Load
69
• OECD Europe
150
• U.S.A.
200
• U.S.A.
Annual Growth
1-2
• Venezuela
4
• Thailand
5
• Mexico
10
• South Korea
10
• Africa
20
Total Capacity
• World Today
742
– Electric Gen only
• World 2100
10,000
– All Energy for projected
population at Developed
Lifestyle (50TW)
25
The Limits of SBPS
5 GW
•
•
•
•
•
•
Assuming Each SPS delivers 5GW:
It would require up to 4 SPS to built per year to meet current annual
growth in US Electrical Demand (2% of 1 TW, or 20 GW)
It would require 200 SPS to replace current US Generating Capacity
of 1 TW (70% Fossil Fuels, 50% Coal)
It would require 742 SPS to meet today’s World Electrical Demand of
3.7TW, spaced one every 357 km
It would require 10 to replace current generating capacity of Mexico or
South Korea;1 for Nigeria, 4 for venezuela, 5 Thailand, 20 doubles all africa,
It would require 10,000 SPS to meet the Total Energy Demand of the
World in 2100, estimated to be 50TW (50,000GW, or 5KWe for
each of 10 billion people)
26
A New Approach
DC-X
NASA / DOE
studies
Peter
Glaser
Proposes
ESA
Study
TAV
Reference Design NRC
NASA
Fresh NASA
Look SERT
NASA/NSF
JIETSBSP
RLV
X-33
Japan METI / JASDA Study
Space Power Feasibility Evolution
NRC Report
27
Does this look like an energy project to you?
=
•
$.7 – 1.2B first unit cost
•
$1 - 5B
($6-10B Development)
It should. Think of an RLV as an energy mining platform.
The way to energy security is through space.
28